What are the possible situations for families with more than 2 properties?
In the past two years, there has been an obvious trend of adjustment in the national property market. After entering 2024, the property market has continued its previous trend. In January 2024, the average second-hand residential property in 100 cities across the country will be 15,230 yuan square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 056% for 21 consecutive months**. In addition, the number of cities with a decline in second-hand housing** in 100 cities reached 99 in January, exceeding 90 for eight consecutive months.
However, the current trend of the property market is predicted by Li Ka-shing, the richest man in China. As early as 2018, Li Ka-shing reminded everyone that a house is always for living. In the next five years, housing prices will undergo a major reshuffle, speculation needs to be cautious, and the borrowing boom of many mainland developers is coming to an end. At that time, the domestic real estate market was in a boom period, and Li Ka-shing's prediction was ignored, and many people thought that Li Ka-shing"Old confused"γ
Nowadays, many investment speculators are trapped in the property market because they have not escaped in time. At the same time, some large real estate developers have defaulted on their debts and unfinished buildings due to the blind expansion of debt in the early stage, and now the entire real estate industry is gradually reducing the debt ratio, controlling the scale of investment, and avoiding a liquidity crisis. Obviously, Li Ka-shing's prediction at the time was completely correct.
In fact, a sharp correction in the real estate market will not have much impact on households that only own one property. However, for families with more than two properties, the impact will be even greater. Statistics released by the central bank show that China's urban household self-ownership rate has risen to 9686%, of which 415% of urban households own two or more properties. So, for families with two or more properties, what will be the result of the property market correction trend?
First of all, real estate will be less and less liquid.
Since April 2023, there has been a significant increase in the number of second-hand home advertisements across the country. According to statistics, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Qingdao, Tianjin, Nanjing, Shenyang, Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing and other major cities have more than 150,000 second-hand housing advertisements. Among them, the advertising volume of second-hand housing in Chongqing has exceeded 250,000 units.
Nowadays, it is becoming increasingly difficult to sell second-hand homes β even in the center of Shanghai, it is difficult to negotiate cash for second-hand landlords who are selling more than 20% below the market price***. In the future, with the deepening of the adjustment of the property market and the increase in the number of listings in the second-hand housing market, the liquidity of housing in various places will become worse and worse. In the end, the landlord of the second-hand house can only let the house rot in his own hands.
Second, the pressure on housing maintenance is increasing.
Families with two or more properties will feel increasing pressure to maintain their homes in the future. On the one hand, many people bought multiple properties before the pandemic. After the epidemic, even if income decreased or job losses were lost, the pressure on housing did not lessen much. This has led to the feeling that the pressure of owning multiple properties is too great. This will continue for many more years.
On the other hand, a household with more than two properties must have several times more than a family owning one property in terms of property fees, heating costs, maintenance costs, etc. What's more, nowadays property taxes and other fees vary from year to year**. Obviously, families with more than one property are under much more pressure to buy a home than they used to be.
Third, the market value of real estate will continue to decline.
Previously, many people thought that the property market would be divided in the future. Housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities have plummeted, while housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen"It only goes up, not down"γIn fact, the housing bubble in third- and fourth-tier cities is not large, with a house-price-to-income ratio of 25, which means that the average 25-year-old family income can afford to buy a house. Therefore, the space for housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities in the future is relatively limited.
In first-tier cities, the ratio of house prices to income is more than 40 or even higher. This means that families in first-tier cities will not be able to buy a house for 40 years without food or drink. Obviously, in the future, whether it is a small town or a large city, housing prices will gradually be linked to the income of local residents. In other words, families with multiple properties will have to face the consequences of a continuous decline in the market value of their properties in the future.