Southeast Asia is the focus of attention on the international political arena and the arena for major powers to compete. While it is not home to the world's major economies, its 6With a total population of 2.5 billion and abundant natural resources, the developed Western countries led by the United States are still attracting a new round of global strategic layout here.
To be sure, the United States has been relatively weakened by the Iraq War and the financial crisis, and China's influence in the region is growing, but despite the structural contradictions, the U.S.-China relationship in Southeast Asia has been characterized by inclusive competition between major powers rather than-for-tat confrontation.
Since the outbreak of the Sino-US war, the competition and confrontation between China and the United States have become increasingly fierce, so that the southeastern countries, which originally had greater autonomy in diplomatic strategy, have to abandon the old thinking of "relying on the United States militarily and relying on China economically", which has had a major impact on the Southeast Asian regional policy of the coexistence of China and the United States.
This seemingly two-sided policy of Southeast Asian countries is actually aimed at not being abandoned by the United States and China under the friction between China and the United States, and at the same time hoping to benefit from it.
In June 2020, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong published an article titled "The Danger of the Asian Century, the Danger of Sino-US Confrontation" in the US Foreign Affairs**, expressing the growing concerns of Southeast Asian countries.
Lee Hsien Loong raised the question at the US Pacific Forum on "why the 21st century is not necessarily an Asian century". He deeply analyzed China's position and future development trend on the global stage, and questioned the view that "the 19th century was the century of Europe, the 20th century was the century of the United States, and the 21st century is the rise of China and other Asian powers, and Asia has gradually become the center and center of gravity of the world."
So, how can we be sure that the 21st century must be the Asian century? Or is the "Asian Century" the same as the "Asian Miracle"? What difficulties and challenges may we encounter in the pursuit of the "Asian Century"?
And how should we deal with it and achieve self-transcendence?
As a major power in Asia, China should be soberly aware of its historical status and mission. Looking back at China's recent history, the tributary relationship of the China-centered world order still has some legacy in Asia, especially in Southeast Asia.
Whether this tributary system itself is advanced or backward, we must acknowledge that this pluralistic tributary system has determined China's dominance in Asian history.
With the advent of the 21st century,"Asian Century"The concept is gradually becoming a hot topic. Since the 50s of the last century, Asia has entered a stage of rapid development after the tempering of World War II"Asian Tigers"and other countries and regions have sprung up.
In the test of the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis, the Asian economy has not only successfully survived the crisis, achieved sustained growth and rapid expansion of total value, but also made those who sing the praises of Asia self-defeating.
Even in the midst of the pandemic, the Asian economy has maintained a strong growth momentum, which undoubtedly indicates that the global political and economic center and center of gravity are shifting to the Asian region.
First, Asia as a whole has maintained a stable macroeconomic environment. In the past 40 years, no Asian country or region has experienced devastating inflation, with the exception of Indonesia.
This is due to the stable management of the macroeconomy by the monetary authorities, which has effectively controlled the fiscal deficit and enabled the economy to achieve a fiscal surplus once there is an opportunity for rapid economic development.
Second, sound economic policies in Asia do not equate to conservatism. Asia is also committed to finding new economic growth points, and exports have become one of the important factors in Asia's economic development.
With the exception of China and Indonesia, all large countries and regions in Asia are facing small domestic markets, so it is important to shift to an export-oriented approach to ensure an effective minimum production scale in foreign markets.
It was precisely because of this export-oriented economy that many Asian countries and regions implemented import substitution measures at that time, which meant that if they wanted to enter the European and American markets, Asian producers had to first establish a good reputation in their own countries, and then gradually accept the test of economic globalization.
Under this business model, Asian countries have created a large number of products with a long history and high competitiveness.
In the wave of industrialization, Asian countries have also succeeded in maintaining sustained high economic growth for a decade or more. This successful process of industrialization has directly promoted the economic and technological upgrading of Asian countries, resulting in rapid improvement of the industrial structure, the growth of the working class, and the rapid urbanization process.
With the deepening of the industrialization process, more and more high-quality talents have turned to the tertiary industry for the 21st century"Asian Century"It has laid a solid industrial technology and foundation.
In less than a century, Asian countries have made leaps and bounds from agrarian to industrial, post-industrial and information societies.
Although Asia's level of industrialization is still uneven in terms of countries and regions, and its overall strength is slightly inferior to that of the old European and American powers, the potential of the region is amazing.
Most Asian countries have adopted the form of practical technology transfer to attract foreign investment and promote the process of industrialization. This method not only solves the problem of insufficient funds, but also learns advanced management experience from foreign-funded enterprises.
It's like the former is to save people from fire and water, and the latter is to teach people to fish. With the acceleration of the industrialization process in Asia, the level of industrialization continues to improve, more and more industrial and commercial capital is pouring in, and foreign labor is also pouring into the job market, creating stable job opportunities and a stable social environment for Asian countries.
A new bright star rises in the East, its dazzling light cannot be ignored, and the United States will naturally pay attention to its rise. However, would the United States want to see a strong Asia and a rising China?
The answer is no. From Obama's "pivot to the Asia-Pacific" strategy to Trump's "Indo-Pacific strategy," U.S. actions in Asia show that they are trying to build a U.S.-centric strategic layout.
On the surface, the United States appears to be only anxious about China, believing that China's rise could threaten their leadership. In fact, however, the historical issues of China, Japan, and South Korea, the North Korean nuclear issue, and the Occupy Central incident in Hong Kong in Northeast Asia have all been affecting the security situation in Asia's neighborhood.
Southeast Asia is not a quiet place, and the South China Sea dispute has put China's cooperation with Southeast Asia in a difficult position, and the journey to achieve ice and warmth is long and challenging.
Is the United States anxious about this? In fact, this anxiety is not unfounded, but stems from the United States' desire to have a weak regional power as a pawn in its pivot to Asia and strengthen its global control.
However, China will not be such a puppet. China's rise has far-reaching regional and global implications, signaling the "non-Western world's" questioning of the inherent U.S.-led international order of "democracy" and "freedom," and signaling a fairer direction for the international order.
Although the relationship between China and the United States is more competitive than cooperative, and confrontational than joined, there is still a pessimistic view that China, as an emerging power, must deal with the inevitable challenges and shocks of the Asian political situation, and the United States is an adversary.
Such a struggle will undoubtedly worry the small countries of Southeast Asia, which fear governance and security crises. Aside from some of its desire for control and economic interests, the United States faces three major challenges in the Asian region.
1. "How to maintain U.S. strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific and promote a liberal economic order" 2. "How to ensure that North Korea does not pose a threat to the United States and its allies now and in the future" 3. "How to strengthen U.S. economic leadership while promoting equitable reciprocity**"Despite the fact that India appears in such an important capacity in the US strategy towards Asia, from"Asia-Pacific"to"Indo-Pacific"We have to suspect that it is ill-intentioned.
On January 12, 2021, the White House released the U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific Region, a secret document 28 years ahead of schedule, which details the U.S. strategic plan for North Korea, India and China from 2018 to 2020.
The document clearly expresses the U.S. intention to balance China by helping India rise and maintain its dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. Although this kind of news has appeared many times, most viewers may have grown tired of it and believed that the goal of the United States has always been that way.
However, we need to recognize that the United States is openly targeting China and including China in the so-called Asia-Pacific region in an attempt to contain China's rise, which is actually challenging Asia's core interests and even interfering in regional affairs.
This peaceful way of evolution makes people take bad habits for granted, and this is the most terrible thing.
During the Sino-US negotiations, Dragon Elephant worked hand in hand. However, the eagle of the United States wants to intervene, relying on its economic foundation and military deployment in the Indo-Pacific region, and demanding that countries in the region must conduct dialogue and cooperation in accordance with the interests of the United States and the conditions for supporting India and China.
At the same time, they also advocate for a comprehensive economic development model in the Indo-Pacific region to replace China's economic development model in the region.
Lee Hsien Loong's account makes it clear that China's rapid rise has made its hard power widely recognized around the world. In the article, he stressed that Asia-Pacific countries are not willing to choose between China and the United States, because they cannot be sure that China will be able to fully fill the gap in the military, scientific and technological and economic fields of the United States in the short term.
Therefore, in these moments of dragon and eagle fighting, the countries caught in them are indeed difficult to speak. Although soft power is often talked about, few truly understand the importance of soft power.
At what key points will soft power play a huge role? Why is there always a saying in Southeast Asia that "China depends on China for its economy and the United States for its security"?
This is not only because economic and diplomatic influence is not comparable to that of the military and political spheres, but also because we need to pay attention to some international voices, such as the views of Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
Lee Hsien Loong: China's dominance of Asian affairs requires more action than economic and diplomatic indicators Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong pointed out that while China's economic and diplomatic achievements have significant influence in Asia, they do not fully reflect China's dominance in Asian affairs.
He pointed out that while China has shaped its image abroad in the past through Chinese-funded international and television, negative perceptions of China are increasing globally.
As a result, China needs to do more to prove its dominance in Asian affairs, rather than relying solely on economic and diplomatic indicators. Lee Hsien Loong did not explicitly state any political stance when expressing this view, but based it on objective facts and arguments.
Some people may find the language of praising the United States as a superpower unpleasant, but the fact is that the United States cannot be shaken in the current world structure.
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's remarks undoubtedly reflect the realities of China as a regional power and Singapore as a multi-ethnic country dominated by Chinese.
Although the words are contrary to the ear, when looking at Lee Hsien Loong's proposals for China-US relations in a rational manner, we also need to think deeply, what is the problem of China's soft power?
The United States is advancing"Asia-Pacific Strategy", and even upgrade it to"Indo-Pacific Strategy", which has been welcomed by countries in the Asia-Pacific region; The instability on the Korean Peninsula poses a threat to China's peripheral security; Japan is drastically adjusting its military strategy; The security situation in the countries surrounding the South China Sea is also facing challenges.
These are all questions that we need to reflect on.
China's ability to dominate the security situation in its neighborhood is indeed limited, and even when analyzing related issues, the international community will cite China's lack of ability to participate in the agenda-setting of organizations in the Asian region as one of the reasons.
As a large country with a population of 1.4 billion, China needs to further enhance its "soft power" in guiding the international community. However, in the process of promoting the construction of the "Asian Century", the discussion of China's leadership in Asia should not only stop at the traditional perspective of strengthening the soft power of individual countries, but also pay attention to emerging problems and find new solutions that adapt to the changes of the times.
During the pandemic, the integration of Asia as a whole has become increasingly prominent, with political, economic and cultural ties not as closely linked as we might think.
Even the McKinsey Institute found that the world's Asia can be divided into five parts: China, emerging Asia, India, developed Asia, and peripheral Asia. This division more clearly reveals the problem of fragmentation and fragmentation of the Asian industrial chain.
Of course, the "Asian century" is in danger, not only because the confrontation between China and the United States in the region has caused Asian countries to take care of themselves, but more importantly, globalization is moving towards regionalization, localization, and decentralization under the influence of geopolitical and technological changes.
This is not a bad thing, but it is a necessary premise: we must accelerate the simultaneous increase of economic ties within the region and the closeness of the region, and truly realize the closer economic and trade activities within the region, which is the truly meaningful "Asian century".
In the article "What is the Really Meaningful "Asian Century"", Liao Zhengrong deeply understood the true meaning of the "Asian Century".