ASML is reluctant to give up the Chinese market, imports soared 10 times in two months, and a large number of lithography machines are purchased!
According to statistics, from November to December 2023, the number of lithography equipment exported by the Netherlands to China was ten times that of the same period last year, and the import value was as high as 1.9 billion yuan, making a lot of money for ASML. Previously, ASML had said that the lithography machine ordered by the Chinese customer will be delivered in 2023.
China has imported 42 lithography machines, with an import value of more than 800 million yuan; In November last year, China's imports of lithography equipment from the Netherlands increased to 1.1 billion yuan, and it is expected to import 56 lithography machines from the Netherlands in November, with a total of 98 lithography machines imported in two months, showing that China has purchased a large number of lithography machines.
The Netherlands' massive imports of lithography machines from China began in September 2023, when ASML announced that it had received a license to export 7nm 2000 i lithography machines to China. This month, the number of lithography machines imported by China increased sharply by 18 times, slowed slightly in October and increased sharply in November and December, with ASML saying that export licenses will not expire until the end of 2023.
The reason why China imports a large number of lithography machines, in addition to the needs of the production line, there is also a saying, that is, worried that when the future can not be imported, will the lithography machine will be used, so more and more lithography machines are imported, and industry insiders believe that China has the ability to use lithography machines in two to three years.
Now that 2024 has just begun, ASML has announced that it will suspend the export of high-end lithography machines, and the high-end lithography machine 2000 i cannot be used to Chinese customers.
ASML has benefited from the huge imports from China: its Q3 2023 results show that ASML accounted for 46% of sales in China, an increase of more than four times from 8% previously.
It can be seen that if China's revenue does not double in the third quarter, ASML will focus on markets outside of China, and will significantly reduce the purchase of lithography machines in the Chinese market, which is already the lifeblood of ASML, so ASML is suddenly allowed to export lithography machines to China.
The November and December figures suggest that ASML will reap higher earnings as China makes further purchases of lithography machines, while ASML's revenue could fall sharply after the abrupt termination of its license. ASML hopes to increase revenue with 10 2 nm EUV lithography equipment, but even if 10 units are sold, the revenue will not exceed 3 billion yuan. However, even if 10 2 nm lithography machines are sold, its revenue will not exceed 3 billion yuan, which is only equivalent to the revenue from China in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.
U.S. companies that make chip equipment and materials also show how important the Chinese market is to them. According to the results of the third quarter of 2023 released by Clorox and Panarin, the Chinese market accounted for 40% of the company's total sales, with Clorox's sales in China increasing by 50% and Panarin's sales doubling in China.
It can be seen that due to the continued downturn in the global chip industry, chip manufacturers such as Intel, Samsung, and TSMC have reduced the purchase of chip equipment, so that overseas chip manufacturers can survive. Therefore, the contribution of the global chip equipment industry to the Chinese market is quite large.
At present, China's chip industry is still expanding, in this context, making profits in the Chinese market is very important for these chip equipment companies, but due to the impact of the United States, ASML also has to temporarily give up the sale of advanced lithography machines in China, wait and see, as long as the time comes, ASML will quickly sell lithography machines to China.
The United States has tried to suppress Chinese chips through chip equipment such as lithography machines, but the breakthroughs made by China in the field of chips in recent years show that the United States' approach has improved the vitality of China's chip industry and made many breakthroughs in the chip industry.
Now, the United States will cross its hands and prevent ASML from exporting high-end lithography machines to China, which will not have a big impact on China's chip industry. If ASML exports a sufficient number of lithography machines to China in the third quarter of 2023, then the Chinese chip industry can continue to promote the chip industry by purchasing lithography machines in the coming years, so the United States intends to abandon it.