In the past week, China has 99 tin ingots9%min spot** continued to decline, and this week*** continued to decline, as of the 6th**207240, down 244%, achieving 7 consecutive declines! The spot market loses support and lasts to 21550,000 tons of metal. This week, China tin ingots 99The 9% min transaction is still light, and most consumers only need a small amount of ** and are unwilling to accumulate the warehouse because the mainstream transaction ** exceeds 210,000 yuan of metal tons. This week, the fundamentals of market supply and demand have not changed much, this week's market continues to loosen, the current producers' general inventory has increased to about one month of output, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, some producers plan to stop production or reduce production vacation, domestic operating rate and ** volume will be slightly reduced; On the demand side, the tinplate and lead-acid battery industries have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand for 3C electronic consumer goods such as mobile phones has only increased slightly, and the overall consumer market is weak, and consumers have remained wait-and-see. Therefore, market participants expect that the tin ingot will be 999%min and tin concentrate** will continue to decline in the week after the Chinese New Year holiday.
The main pressure on this round of tin prices is in two aspects, on the one hand, it is caused by the cooling of overseas interest rate cut expectations and the traditional consumption off-season before the holiday. At the end of January, macro optimism retreated, giving Shanghai tin the most elasticity higher than other metals. Since the FOMC and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hawkishly announced their expectations for a rate cut in March, tin prices have started a trend of high **. At the beginning of February, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data was much stronger than expected, continuing to pour cold water on the market's interest rate cut bets, while the strong US dollar** put more pressure on tin prices.
On the other hand, the characteristics of the off-season seasonal demand of tin downstream terminals have appeared, and the downstream solder processing enterprises have successively stopped production and vacation, and the demand for tin ingot procurement has fallen off a cliff, driving the domestic tin ingot to appear obvious accumulation, which has formed a greater pressure on tin prices.
Looking forward to the holiday, the weak situation of domestic tin supply and demand may gradually improve. In terms of **, due to the fact that there is still no clear resumption time for overseas mines in Wa State, tin ore imports may still be tight, and domestic tin smelting capacity will also be subject to the shortage of raw materials, and the increase is relatively limited. On the demand side, it is expected that consumer electronics shipments will usher in a moderate recovery in 2024, while the growth momentum of AI chip demand continues to be strong, which may strengthen market expectations.