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The current situation and future outlook of the steel industry, the game between profit compression and demand recovery.
Recently, a number of steel mills announced the suspension of production for maintenance, including Jiangsu Shagang plans to overhaul the blast furnace in the middle of the month, which is expected to resume production around the month, affecting the daily output of 10,000 tons of molten iron; Guangxi Guigang Iron and Steel Group Guibao) two blast furnaces began to be overhauled on the year, month and month, affecting the average daily output of about 10,000 tons of molten iron; Guangdong Zhongnan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. plans to overhaul the high line from xx-xx-xx, and the planned overhaul time is days, which is expected to affect the average daily output of about 10,000 tons; Jiangsu Changzhou Oriental Special Steel plans to overhaul a small rod line from the month of January for a period of one day, which is expected to affect the output of 10,000 tons of excellent rods; Chongqing Iron and Steel plans to carry out slag removal operations in turn on the heating furnace of the hot-rolled sheet production line from January to a period of one day, affecting the average daily hot-rolled output of about 10,000 tons; Jiangxi Jiujiang Pinggang Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. plans to overhaul the blast furnace from the year, month and month, which is expected to affect 10,000 tons of molten iron, and the rebar and coil snail production lines will be overhauled in turn, which is expected to affect the output of building materials 10,000 tons. The profits of these steel mills are not good, the overall pace of resumption of production is slow, the maintenance and production reduction continues, the pressure of crude steel is significantly lower than last year, and the ability to withstand weak demand is stronger. It is estimated that the average daily output of molten iron in the month was 10,000 tons, and the monthly crude steel output decreased year-on-year without considering the changes in scrap steel, and the net export of steel in the month was 10,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month-on-year. Freezing warnings have been issued in many places, and the downstream recovery has been delayed. **The Meteorological Observatory will continue to issue a yellow warning for freezing on the day of the month, and it is expected that from the day of the month to the day, there will be freezing rain or ice particles in parts of central and southern Anhui, northwest Zhejiang, central and eastern Hubei, most of Hunan, northwest Jiangxi, central and eastern Guizhou, and southeastern Chongqing, with freezing rainfall of about millimeters, locally, and about millimeters. According to the survey, the vast majority of workers have not yet returned to work. In comparison, this year's post-holiday workers' return to work is slightly delayed compared with last year. Recently, many provinces across the country have maintained freezing warnings, and the overall start time of the project has been slightly delayed compared with last year. Raw material inventories are high, and there are still expectations for a decrease. The coke market continued to run weakly. In terms of coke prices, the profit margin of coke enterprises has narrowed, and some coke enterprises still have reduced production due to profit damage, and most coke enterprises have maintained the previous state. On the demand side, the coke inventory level of steel mills is still at a medium and high level, and the demand for steel has not improved significantly, the profits of steel mills are not good, and the enthusiasm for coke procurement is not high.
In terms of future outlook, in the short term, strong expectations and weak realities continue to play, resulting in frequent fluctuations in steel prices; After the Lantern Festival, the downstream resumed work one after another, paying close attention to the falsification of demand; The two sessions are approaching, and the market still has expectations for policy expectations. With the convening of the two sessions, the demand for steel rebounded, and it is expected that there is still room for upside in steel.