We take history as a mirror, the U.S. housing market peaked in 2006, and then ushered in several years of property market adjustment, until the U.S. housing market reached a new high again in 2022, so how did the largest bank in the United States (JPMorgan Chase) go.
The current price from the United States in 2006, 175 30 = 5833333，5.8 times; 10. from the lowest point of 20093，175/10.3=16.990291, it is 17 times.
In 2006, the U.S. property market peaked, in 2008 ushered in the global financial crisis, in 2008 the country's 4 trillion bailout, the global economy gradually out of the downturn, China's domestic real estate bubble opened, the current Shanghai property market is still about 4 times that of the end of 2008.
The end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 are 5 at the end of 20085 6 times or so.
At the end of 2020, after the property market peaked, the stock prices of China's four major state-owned banks did not usher in an adjustment, because the valuation of the four major state-owned banks has been extremely low, and now it is only 52PE, and the national joint-stock bank leader, after the property market peaked, ushered in a certain **, but the decline was limited, for example, China Merchants Bank's A shares did not fall by more than 50%, and China Merchants Bank's H shares 2351/67.27=0.349487, the drop reached 65%.
JPMorgan Chase's biggest decline, 1039/34.39=0.302123, the maximum drop of 70% is actually about the same.
2008 JPMorgan Chase Bottom 103, but at the beginning of 2024 at 175, JPMorgan Chase's ** rose by 175 103=16.990291, the increase reached 17 times, and the time was 16 years. The U.S. housing market is not much higher than the peak in 2006, and it is no more than three times the bottom of the U.S. housing market in 2008.
After the U.S. property market peaked in 2006, it took 14 years to recover from its highs, and the largest bank in the United States was nearly 6 times that of 2006;
China's property market peaked at the end of 2020 (not many people should doubt this, right?). How long will it take for the property market to return to the top at the end of 2020?
This problem is likely to be about 14 years, that is, around 2034, that is, 10 years later, our property market can continue to return to the high level at the end of 2020, and if China Merchants Bank bottoms up by then, it will be about 16 times, 235*16=376，376/28.8=13.055556, which is 13 times as much as it is now.
There is a high probability that China Merchants Bank can be similar to JPMorgan Chase in the past 10 years in the next 10 years, and obtain a 10-fold level**. The property market may be twice as large as it is now in the next 10 years.
However, there is a premise that China can get out of this financial crisis and out of the middle-income trap.
The main reason for the change of asset ** is the over-issuance of money, economic growth, and ultimately the inflation of assets.
Asset allocation is a science, and I wish you good luck and smooth sailing in the Year of the Dragon.