It seems that the contest between Biden and Trump is inevitable, an eighty-one-year-old man, a seventy-seven-year-old man, what happened to the United States, eight years have passed, and no one can compare to Obama and Clinton!
This will be a particularly unpopular competition between the two ** candidates, no matter who elects whom, they must frown, quite a bit to Lin Daiyu to swing the axe, therefore, this year's ** must be more full of variables.
However, you can guess which side has the better chance of winning.
First of all, I want to talk about Lao Bai! If he hadn't had any major setbacks in the election, for example, at one of the most important appearances, he would have developed Alzheimer's; For example, Ukraine, or the countries that withdrew from Afghanistan, have suffered irreparable political losses because of the wrong decisions of the United States**; And the same is true of the financial crisis in the United States. If it weren't for the kind of misfortune mentioned above, the Mother of Victory would have had a much higher opinion of Baird.
Why is that?
The first is the so-called principle of "neutrality". Think about the ideological positioning of Trump and Biden. Biden is one of those centrist, left-wing Democrats who are not left-wing. What about Trump? In the eyes of the middle class, this is an extreme right-wing person.
For example, if Lao Chuan and Lao Bai are two businessmen who do the same business, they will try to attract as many customers as possible. Customers are faced with two choices: "lower price is better" and "better quality". According to the median voting theory, the mentality of most customers is to seek a balance between the quality and quality of the product, which can bring more customers to customers, and excessive reduction or excessive quality will cause customers to lose. Then, the merchants who are close to this will be able to take into account more customers. Pricing too high will lead to customer churn, and consumers are sensitive to **; On the contrary, you will lose a lot of quality-conscious customers.
In this regard, Lao Chuan suffers.
Indeed, in terms of personality charm, Lao Chuan is much stronger than Lao Bai: Lao Chuan is energetic, and the old man takes two steps, panting, three steps and moaning; Lao Chuan's enthusiasm is high, and the old ants are whispering; Lao Chuan interacted closely with the voters and his voice was very cordial, and his speech resonated enthusiastically, while the old Barry looked a little sluggish, as if wearing a face with a mask, speaking to the void, and never once succeeded in making a powerful propaganda for the voters.
But oddly enough, his charisma is also a drawback. This is mainly because Lao Chuan has a very self-contained hero complex, he enjoys this feeling of being surrounded by fans, he enjoys the thrill of being sought after by fans, and he also enjoys this enthusiasm and lets his fans go crazy with him. As a result, his favorite words are shocking and radical political claims, such as his claim that he can end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. Although this can make your brain-dead fans more crazy, there is also a high chance that they will be disgusted by middle-class people.
In fact, because of Lao Chuan's words, even the Republican Party has a big divide, and this distribution of votes makes Lao Chuan's situation even worse.
In contrast, there is considerable unity within the Democratic Party.
Therefore, Lao Bai's polls seem to be weak, but the die-hard supporters of the two camps are increasing, and they can even be said to be evenly matched. Even if the two sides come to an agreement, or some kind of balance is reached, the final winner is often neutral, not attracted by your enthusiasm, they just want to know who can bring the best benefit to them.
Let's take a look back at the middle of 2022, when the United States had already begun to have various social problems, and now, they are facing even worse socio-economic-political conditions than today, and many people expect the Democratic Party to lose miserably. But even then, polls showed that voters who didn't like either Trump or Biden ended up supporting Biden.
From this point, it can be inferred that the 2024 election will not change unless there is a major political event in the Democratic Party.
Second, judging by the polls, Biden is indeed at a disadvantage, but not very badly, he is at an important tipping point - around 40%. Moreover, public opinion often lags behind the state of the economy. On the whole, the macro data in the United States is in good shape, and the unemployment rate and inflation in the United States have improved significantly, but this situation has not yet been fully reflected in the public view because of a certain lag in public opinion.
Therefore, if the US economy remains prosperous in the second quarter of this year, Biden will have more victories, because the state of the economy in this quarter will be decisive for the November elections.
Third, Biden has favorable conditions to govern.
Needless to say, governing is strong political execution. There was once a conclusion that the incumbent had three advantages over the incumbent. In the United States, there is a rule: in the early days, people in office tend to be blamed and blamed more, and that's why, because you are a strong political party! Naturally, it has become the target of public criticism. As a result, popular support generally decreases during this time. But when the election heats up, the ruling party can defend itself more systematically and efficiently.
Historically, Reagan, Clinton, and Obama have all seen their approval ratings grow by more than 7% when the U.S. economy is doing well, so if the U.S. economy continues to be good, Obama's chances of winning after election will be greater.
In particular, so far, many people believe that Kyoko Kawasaki has a great advantage in issues related to the economy, immigration, and crime, especially the economy, immigration and crime, which is like a double-edged sword for Trump and Biden, which can harm both people and people. Therefore, the success or failure of the election is most important not to discourage the public, and the fact that the old worship is in other more influential areas, such as relations with the European Union, support for the just war, strengthening NATO cohesion, and restoring the status of the United States as a superpower.
This means that Bei Ye's chances of winning are a little greater, but he has not yet fully gained the upper hand. If "Prevent **, save democracy" were the most popular theme in the election, then Biden would still win the election. Conversely, if the "economy" and the resulting immigration and crime become the most popular issues in the election, the odds of Trump's return to the throne will increase significantly.
Regardless of who governs, one thing is certain: even if the social situation in the United States does not improve (I am a relatively optimistic person, I believe that the United States will always have a greater chance of developing in a better direction), the United States has not gotten worse, after all, the idea of democracy and the priority of the rule of law under the joint control of the two political parties in the United States has deeply affected the hearts and minds of Americans.
No matter how powerful a person is, there will be no freedom in this kind of place.