When I write this article, Changbai Mountain already has 7 up-limit boards. The wealth of the sky has finally flowed to Harbin, and ice and snow tourism has also risen with Changbai Mountain.
Even though Changbai Mountain's current ski resort business revenue accounts for less than 1%, shareholders can't help but say that you have it. "Everything is a cycle", feng shui takes turns, and no one can guess who will be the turn of the wealth of tomorrow's limit. But the important difference between investment and speculation is "whether you can make money consistently".
Can Changbaishan allow investors to make money consistently?
Can the company continue to earn cash flow?
Is Changbaishan's business model good?
These are the questions we need to answer through fundamental interpretation.
1. The core business of Changbai Mountain has exclusivity and the right to speak
The main operating income of Changbai Mountain does not come from the sale of tickets, but from the passenger business in the scenic area. From January to September 2023, the company achieved operating income of 49.7 billion yuan, of which the operating income of tourist passenger transport business was 35.4 billion yuan, accounting for 7123%。
The focus we should pay attention to is that the tourist passenger business of Changbai Mountain is exclusive; Or that this is a seller's market, and Changbaishan is the seller. Changbaishan's seller's market position mainly comes from two aspects.
First, in the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area, only the company has the right to operate passenger transport.
According to the company's announcement:
During the validity period of the contract, the company has the exclusive right to operate tourist passenger transport in Changbai Mountain Tourist Scenic Area, and chartered passenger transport for tours between sections and around the mountain road, and promises not to introduce other operators and not to increase the standard of paid user fees.
In other words, no matter how many people travel to Changbai Mountain, no matter how greedy others want to drive in to transport tourists to make money, there is no way. Because this passenger right is monopolized by the company Changbai Mountain.
The second point is that when tourists arrive at the Changbai Mountain Scenic Area, they can only choose to take the company's tour bus.
The Changbai Mountain Scenic Area is divided into three scenic spots: north, west and south, with the north and west scenic spots 110 kilometers apart and the west and south scenic spots 120 kilometers apart. The distance between the scenic spots is relatively long, coupled with the restrictions of laws and regulations, there is no alternative transportation mode such as cable cars in the scenic area, and tourists can not drive in the scenic area by car, so they can only choose to take the company's tour bus.
To put it mildly, the profit model of Changbai Mountain's passenger transport business is like "catching turtles in an urn".
As long as more tourists choose to enter this "urn", then they will have to pay for tickets; The most important thing is that standing outside the "urn" is like digging into the bag to make money, only Changbaishan is the company, and it is the only one that has this kind of franchise.
**There is data on the number of tourists in Changbai Mountain Scenic Area.
In December 2023, the main scenic spot of Changbai Mountain received a total of 18 tourists40,000 person-times, a year-on-year increase of 6179%。
For the whole year of 2023,The main scenic spot of Changbai Mountain received a total of 274 tourists80,000 person-times, a year-on-year increase of 2605%, an increase of 9 compared to the same period in 20194%。
So, as long as the number of tourists continues to grow, Changbaishan's business model will seem unassailable, and the company will continue to make money.
Second, two risks will affect the sustainability of Changbai Mountain's profits
Just as there is a need for others and there must be restrictions on others, there must be advantages and disadvantages in everything, and the most relied on advantage sometimes becomes the greatest risk.
The first is whether the exclusive right to operate the passenger transport business in Changbai Mountain Scenic Area is sustainable.
The validity period of the company's business license is from August 21, 2010 to August 21, 2030, and the annual paid royalty is 1.1 million yuan; If the contract cannot be renewed after expiration, the passenger business, which accounts for the majority of the company's revenue, will not be able to continue to operate. In addition, paid usage fees may increase.
Second, the company's right to raise prices is limited.
Revenue, unit price, and sales volume.
While the number of tourists increases, and the ability to increase the price of tickets, the company's revenue growth will be more secure. However, like other scenic spots, Changbai Mountain does not have the right to raise prices independently, and may even reduce fees due to changes in policy regulations.
When we analyzed Guilin tourism before, we discussed whether the scenic spot has the right to raise prices.
The Elephant Trunk Mountain Scenic Area is open to the public free of charge, and Guilin Tourism can no longer receive any income from Elephant Trunk Mountain; Will there be a price reduction in tickets and tickets in Changbai Mountain Scenic Area in the future? It's hard to say. But if you buy this one, you have to take into account this risk. Except for those who follow the trend and make a wave of money.
In addition to the two uncertainties mentioned earlier, we also have to consider the depreciation of the vehicle.
Since the company's main revenue comes from the passenger business, the company is faced with the problem of vehicle damage, repair and replacement. As shown in the table below, as of the end of June 2023, the accumulated depreciation of the company's transportation equipment is more than the depreciation of houses and buildings.
The 7 consecutive daily limits are the wealth brought to Changbai Mountain by the rotation of feng shui, but the company's business model has certain flaws, which is also undeniable. As for whether to buy it or not, it is that turnip greens have their own love.