The Spring Festival has passed, and ** is about to open.
During the holiday, the periphery rose sharply, Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 continued to hit new highs, and Hong Kong stocks also rose for three consecutive days. Many investors sold before the holiday to avoid risk, and now the sense of shortness is getting stronger and stronger.
On the news side, domestic tourism and movie consumption during the Spring Festival have performed well, which is a boost to the large consumption sector; Peripheral OpenAI released **model SORA, which supports 60s short**, with amazing results, and is expected to drive another wave of AI hype in A-shares.
In addition, from the perspective of funds, there has been a significant improvement after the holiday.
Before the holiday, the biggest problem faced by the micro capital side of A-shares was the forced liquidation of leveraged funds. Only forced liquidation will bring less than cost selling pressure and create a negative feedback loop. Historically, the sharp fall and sharp fall at the bottom of the bear market have the shadow of forced liquidation.
When the market comes to the bottom of the valuation, there is no money-making effect, the ** strength is weak, the position is deeply locked, and the willingness to sell is not strong. At this time, the market is in a weak equilibrium, either in a narrow range at the bottom**, or it continues to fall. After a period of time, due to some inevitable contingency factor, the market will have a sharp decline, breaking this fragile balance and creating a negative feedback loop.
The sharp fall forced the liquidation of some leveraged assets, and also allowed some funds to enter the liquidation warning line. In order to avoid forced liquidation, leveraged funds chose to sell to save themselves, and began to sell rapidly in the short term, regardless of the cost, and the first power continued to shrink, and the balance of funds was broken. ** will cause more leveraged funds to be liquidated, trigger more sell-offs, lead to bigger **, and negative feedback will begin.
Once the negative feedback starts, it's like throwing a string of fireworks into a warehouse full of explosives, and it won't stop until it's detonated. In terms of performance, the index continues to fall sharply and sharply until all the leveraged funds that are about to be closed are detonated. After the detonation, there will be a big pit, the valuation is extremely low, at this time, the selling pressure dissipates, the over-the-counter funds flock to the **, the power rises sharply, there will be a sharp rise, a big rise**.
The big fall was followed by the big rise, and it has always been like this.
Before the Spring Festival, A-shares fell sharply and fell sharply, and the news of liquidation and liquidation was repeatedly searched, which is a typical negative feedback at the end of the bear market.
In January, the Wind All-A Index rose by -126%；The CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices rose by -63%、-13.5% and -187%。At the industry level, electronics, computers, and national defense and military industries all fell by more than 20 percentage points, and pharmaceutical and biological, machinery and equipment, power equipment, basic chemicals, media, automobiles, communications and other sectors fell by more than 15 points.
Judging from the performance before the Spring Festival, the sharp fall and the sharp fall have passed in stages. After the big fall, there was a big rise, and the A-shares had risen for three consecutive days before the holiday, and the trading volume was also significantly enlarged, and there was a high probability that the rally would continue after the holiday.
Many people may ask, how can you be sure that the warehouses that should be exploded have exploded?
Do a thought experiment. One day, Mr. A, an investor, opened a financing account and deposited 100,000 yuan, all of which bought the GEM ETF. According to the regulations of the brokerage, an index ETF with a market value of 100,000 yuan can raise 90,000 yuan. After the full position is full, the total market value of Mr. A's account is 190,000 yuan, and the margin ratio is 211%.
For the sake of simplicity, Mr. A did not do anything else in the future. **After that, I held it until the GEM index fell by 40%, and Mr. A liquidated. Based on the lowest point of the GEM index of 1483 points since 2024, those with a full position above 2472 points will be liquidated, which basically corresponds to all times from August 2020 to March 2022.
In other words, Mr. A's full position on any day from August 2020 to March 2022 will be liquidated since then. For a full 20 months of trading, guess how many Mr. A will place orders during this period?
In fact, Mr. A can not only be **GEM index, but also **new energy, biomedicine, national defense and military industry and other industries with greater declines in ETFs or **. These uncountable gentlemen A have liquidated their positions in the big fall before the Spring Festival.
So, are you saying the liquidation wave is over? Emotionally, a lot has been eliminated. **In terms of indicators, the end of the sharp fall and the big fall is also the external manifestation of the end of the liquidation tide.
To sum up, the negative feedback at the micro level of A-shares has ended, the selling pressure has been greatly eased, the strength of ** has been strengthened under the extremely low valuation, and the V-shaped ** has been launched.
The height of the V-shaped ** after the overfall depends on the previous decline. Since the beginning of the year, computer, electronics, social services, light manufacturing, national defense and military industry, environmental protection, machinery and equipment, media and other sectors have fallen by more than 15 percentage points, and the deep decline has just begun.
At the macro level, there is also some good news.
The first is 0., which came into effect on February 5The RRR cut of 5 percentage points will release trillions of low-cost funds to the banking system. These funds will basically flow into the real sector after the Spring Festival. Although credit funds will not directly enter the market, with the support of credit funds, many investors do not have to sell cheaply to raise funds, or credit funds for production and consumption, and their own funds are good for the liquidity environment.
Secondly, after the Spring Festival, part of the funds that flowed out of the ** before the holiday returned to support liquidity.
Finally, after the Spring Festival, the fundamentals are gradually ushering in an improvement. The additional issuance of trillions of treasury bonds in the fourth quarter of last year mainly formed a physical workload in the first quarter of this year, which will inevitably be reflected in the economic data. At the same time, since the beginning of the year, policies to stabilize growth in various fields have been intensively introduced, and post-holiday measures have been implemented, and rolling up your sleeves and working hard will also be reflected in economic indicators. The improvement of economic fundamentals is expected to reverse overly pessimistic market expectations and help the market.
After the holiday**, it is worth looking forward to!
Note: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. In any case, the information or opinions expressed herein are for an exchange of views only and do not constitute investment advice to any person. 】
This article was originally written by *** Xue Hongyan Whispering, the author is Xue Hongyan, vice president of Xingtu Financial Research Institute