Wall Street Breakfast FM Radio February 16, 2024

The Nasdaq briefly turned lower during the session, and finally the three major U.S. stock indexes were the last two consecutive days**. Small-cap indices closed up more than 2%., outperforming in two days**. The energy sector rose 25% led the gains。TechnologyAmong the "Seven Sisters", only Meta and Tesla did not fall, Tesla rose more than 6%, and Meta rose more than 2% to a record highNvidia fell more than 1% and fell to an all-time high。Cisco fell more than 2% after the earnings report. After Nvidia disclosed its holdings in the fourth quarter, Nano-X closed up nearly 50%, giving back half of the gains at the beginning of the session and 80% of the AI companies at the beginning of the sessionSOUN rose nearly 67%., AI concept stocksSMCI rose 14%., hit a record high on the ninth day, and ARM closed up nearly 6%, and turned down during the session. Germany and France hit a new high

After the release of the retail sales data, the two-year Treasury yield first refreshed its daily low, falling by 8 basis pointsAfter a time, all the declines were wiped out and turned upward。The U.S. dollar index refreshed its daily low.

U.S. oil rose nearly 2% to a three-month high。U.S. natural gas hit a new low in more than three years on the seventh day. **Stop a five-day losing streak, say goodbye to the two-month low. London zinc rose nearly 2%, and London copper** to a one-week high. Bitcoin on the test 5$270,000 hit a new high in more than two yearsAfter falling back thousands of dollars

In the Chinese market, the U.S. stock market session,The China Concept Stock Index rose nearly 1%, outperforming for consecutive days**, Pinduoduo rose more than 2%, and Xiaopeng Motors rose nearly 2%; The offshore yuan rose more than 100 points intraday and recovered 722。

U.S. retail sales in JanuaryMonth-on-month, it fell 08%, significantly less than expectedThe decline was the largest in nearly a year, the previous value was revised down to 04%。

U.S. bonds rose sharply, and positions roseChina, Japan, the two major "creditors" of the United States, held bonds for two consecutive months, China will still net sell more than $50 billion in 2023.

Japan's Q4 GDPunexpectedly "two consecutive contractions" and fell to "fourth in the world".Overtaken by a weakened GermanyUK GDPcontracted for two consecutive quarters, falling into".Technical recession”。EU downgradeEurozone GDP this yearand inflation expectations, thoughThe head of the ECB is still "resistant to a rate cut".

Soros comrade-in-arms"Fourth quarterSelling Google, Amazon and Eli Lilly, ** shares, Nvidia is still the largest holding

MoreA regional banking crisis in the United States is on the horizon, a number of banks' commercial real estate loans exploded, and the regulatory punch was about to come out.

ApplesIt's close to completing a game that can compete with Microsoft's GitHub CopilotArtificial intelligence tools。Zuckerberg to".Apple taxA shot was firedto teach businesses how to avoid paying Apple.

European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed up 066%。Germany's DAX index closed up 06%。France's CAC 40 index rose 086%。Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 038%。

A shares: A shares are closed.

Bond market: The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 215 basis points at 42339%。The two-year Treasury yield fell 102 basis points at 45676%。

commodity: WTI closed up 1 in March$39, up 181% at 78$03 barrel. Brent closed up 1 in April$26, up 154% to 82$86 barrel. COMEX closed up 053% to 2014$90 oz. COMEX closed up 2 in March52% to 22$951 oz. LME copper closed up $117 at $8,314 tonnes.

Domestic macro

The total number of Spring Festival stalls in 2024 has set a record. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 21:38 on February 15, the total number of Spring Festival stalls (including pre-sales) in 2024 (February 10-February 17) exceeded 3.75 million, setting a new record for the total number of Spring Festival stalls in Chinese film history.

Domestic companies

The first trading day of the Year of the Dragon in Taiwan stocksTSMC's stock price once **98% to an all-time high。Earlier, the company reported strong sales growth in January, and some brokerages raised their targets for the stock.

Overseas macro

U.S. retail sales fell 08%, significantly less than expectedThe decline was the largest in nearly a year, the previous value was revised down to 04%。The retail sales data raised questions about the durability of US consumer spending at the start of the new year. Cold weather in January was a possible reason for the sluggish data, neverthelessThe data still points to the risk of a deterioration in US household spending。However, the analysis said that the retail sales data alone is unlikely to make it clearer when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. U.S. bonds rose sharply, and positions rose, the two major "creditors" of the United StatesChina's and Japan's debt holdings increased for two consecutive months, China will still net sell more than $50 billion in 2023. According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, Japan's total holdings of U.S. bonds hit a new high in more than a year, increasing for three consecutive months, with a net increase of $63.1 billion in a year; China's holdings increased for the second month in a row. The European Union lowered its Eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts for this year, butThe head of the ECB is still "resistant to a rate cut".。Lagarde has denied claims of an imminent rate cut, while insisting that bringing inflation down to 2% is the bank's goal. Japan's GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly contracted for the second time in a row, falling to "fourth in the world".Overtaken by a weakened Germany。Japan's recession has brought "headwinds" to ending negative interest rates, with markets now pricing in a 63% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan by April, down from 73% on Wednesday. While Japanese stocks are booming, Japanese people are buying overseas at a record level*** The yen has fallen by 6% this year. In January of this year, Japanese investors bought 1A record 2 trillion yen (about 8 billion U.S. dollars) of overseas ** and investment trusts**. UK GDP contracted for two consecutive quartersFall into a "technical recession".。UK GDP fell 03%, and economists** were down 01%。The decline in the UK was smaller, stagnant rather than a full-blown recession. GBP/USD**.

Overseas companies

Soros comrades-in-arms "Q4Selling Google, Amazon and Eli Lilly, ** shares, Nvidia is still the largest holdingDruckenmiller's ** portfolio had a strong performance in the last quarter, with the total market value of his holdings growing by more than 20% to nearly $3.4 billion. 14 days before the expiration of the return periodThe first batch of powders was returned to Vision Pro。Uncomfortable wearing, headaches, and eye strain are the main reasons users return to the Vision Pro. Zuckerberg shot at the "Apple tax" and taught the enterpriseHow to avoid paying Apple。Starting this month, businesses will pay a 30% service fee to Apple if they buy boosted posts from Meta's enhanced promotion feature on the Facebook and Instagram apps for iOS. But Meta has "taught" a new trick to circumvent the "Apple tax": businesses can log in to the official websites of these social networks directly on the browsers of desktop and mobile devices, so that they do not have to pay Apple. Da Mo: On Tesla's stock price performance in the next six months, institutional shareholders areVery pessimistic。Reasons why people are bearish on Tesla include,It is excluded from the AI theme and may have zero revenue growth in 2024. More U.S. regional banking crises are on the horizon, a number of banks' commercial real estate loans exploded, and the regulatory punch was about to come out. U.S. regulators have said they will be watching banks whose commercial real estate loan portfolios exceed three times their total capital. Among these banks, regulators will pay particular attention to those whose commercial real estate loan portfolios have grown by at least 50% over the past three years. Strict regulation is coming, which may mean that this year's banking turmoil triggered by New York's community banks is just the beginning. AI topics are relevant

Apple is close to completing a game that can compete with Microsoft's GitHub CopilotArtificial intelligence tools。Apple is working on an artificial intelligence tool for its next major version of Xcode. Apple is also looking to use artificial intelligence to generate for app testing efforts**. OpenAI launches an AI system that will:Text is converted to realistic**

Next-generation Windows system**: Based on GPT-4V, the agent is scheduled across applications, and the code name is UFO. Seamlessly switch between multiple apps and accomplish complex tasks with a single sentence. The whole process requires no human intervention, and its execution success rate and efficiency are twice as high as that of GPT-4, GPT-3Four times as much as 5. The Microsoft Build developer conference is scheduled for May 21-23.

China's financial markets are closed for the Chinese New Year holiday.

Hang Seng Indexes Company announces the results of the Hang Seng Index Series Review for the fourth quarter of 2023.

US PPI for January.

U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits for January.

U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in February.

The Central Bank of Russia announced its interest rate decision.

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