The sales data in January 2024 is a bit unbearable, according to CRIC monitoring data, 8.88 million square meters of new homes were transacted in 30 key cities, down 43% month-on-month. It looks like the real estate market is even worse!
That's right, on the surface. But this is the new home market.
The second-hand housing market is significantly better than the new housing market. The transaction volume of second-hand houses increased year-on-year**, month-on-month**
The home buying market is gradually shifting from new homes to second-hand homes, and this trend is particularly evident in 2023, with second-hand housing transactions outpacing new homes in most key cities.
The decrease in the transaction volume of new houses, on the one hand, due to the slowdown in the new **, the pace of real estate companies to launch the market has slowed down, and it is also related to the sprint at the end of the year to digest some of the new demand in advance.
On the other hand, the financial pressure on real estate companies has been reduced to varying degrees, and they are no longer inclined to sell meat sharply, and they have made large concessions before, and the space for further price reduction is very limited.
At the same time, the number of second-hand houses continues to increase, and the bargaining space continues to expand, further diverting the source of customers in the new housing market.
More and more buyers are considering second-hand housing, which is not only related to the structural mismatch between the supply and demand of new housing, but also the reason for the lack of trust in new housing, as well as the cost-effective advantages highlighted by second-hand housing.
Therefore, the current overall market state is that the new housing market is sluggish, and the second-hand housing market is becoming more and more active.
But what the two markets have in common is that they are still on the downside.
So, what is the stage of the property market? Has the most difficult period passed?
Economic development, the impact of policies, human psychological factors, etc., will have a profound impact on the short-term trend of real estate.
In the cycle of recession, recovery, boom and recession, the most difficult period is not at the bottom, but precisely in the accelerated downturn, under the hopeless situation of hopelessness.
Obviously, the current real estate situation is no longer a vast darkness, but vaguely perceptible, and the bottom is not far away.
From three perspectives.
01 Policy side
The much-criticized drip rescue measures are like mud cattle entering the sea, but they are really taking action step by step.
The long-term strategy of "exchanging time for space" will eventually produce the effect of quantitative change to qualitative change.
Starting from January 26 this year, a new bailout model has been entered, that is, local governments have been given full autonomy in regulation and control.
Subsequently, the four first-tier cities of Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen have successively relaxed purchase restrictions on a large scale.
Among them, the wide and deep are almost open to the threshold. It is foreseeable that it is only a matter of time before Beijing and Shanghai are fully relaxed.
In this round of property market adjustment, purchase restrictions may become a thing of the past, and the down payment ratio and property market transaction taxes are also likely to fall to a record low.
That is, to remove all obstacles to property market transactions.
The Prime Minister's words at an important meeting recently".Do what is conducive to boosting confidence and expectations, maintain the consistency and stability of policy formulation and implementation, and take pragmatic and powerful actions to boost the confidence of the whole society."
Consistency and stability, implemented in real estate, what it means, is obvious.
Let's take a look at the local auction situation.
In the past year, land auctions in key cities are gradually converging towards traditional urban areas.
On the one hand, because real estate companies are now conservative in acquiring land, they are more willing to bet limited funds on the traditional core area, and it is difficult to trade land in the suburbs at a premium, and the land in the core area has still become the object of competition for real estate companies, resulting in frequent high-premium land kings in many cities.
Under the new land supply strategy, land prices have been stabilized, land prices have stabilized, expectations have been stabilized, and housing prices have been supported.
The other isConstruction of three major projectsAccelerate your efforts. It will not only drive a new round of development and construction, help the establishment of a dual-track housing system, but also effectively stimulate economic vitality, promote employment and increase residents' income.
In January this year, a series of blockbuster measures such as the reopening of PSL and the implementation of the rental housing support plan, as well as the monetization and resettlement of urban village reconstruction, will further increase housing demand and reduce property inventory.
These positive effects will be felt in the next 3-6 months.
02 Financial side
The ups and downs of the real estate market are essentially a monetary phenomenon that is inextricably linked to the financial markets.
The impact of finance on real estate is nothing more than two points.
The first is the credit line for the real estate market.
The second is the cost of funds, that is, the interest rate.
Let's take a look at the financing of real estate enterprises first.
For real estate enterprise loans, the most important thing at present is the implementation of the "white list" mechanism for real estate projects.
More than 200 cities have established a real estate financing coordination mechanism, sorted out the "white list" of real estate projects in batches and pushed them to commercial banks, involving a total of 5,349 projects (according to China Real Estate News).
The whitelist mechanism will undoubtedly be further implemented, which will effectively alleviate the financial pressure of projects under construction and ensure the construction and delivery of projects.
At the same time, it is also conducive to reducing the pressure of real estate enterprises on the sales side, and to a certain extent, it will help stabilize the new housing sales system.
Of course, this move will also improve buyers' confidence in the delivery ability of real estate companies and promote the recovery of the new housing market.
Let's look at interest rates.
The unexpected interest rate cut on February 20 this year has become popular all over the Internet, and most real estate bloggers will rush to tell each other.
This asymmetric rate cut (MLF has not changed), the one-year LPR remains unchanged, and the five-year LPR directly related to housing loans will be changed from 42% was significantly reduced by 25 basis points to 395%, the largest single decline in history, releasing a strong signal to support the property market.
Objectively speaking, although the interest rate cut exceeded expectations and shocked the market, the actual effect should not be too optimistic.
After all, the current property market cannot be solved by this limited interest rate cut. But this is a clear signal that the rescue strategy in the Year of the Dragon will be further revised, the scale and density will be significantly strengthened, and interest rates will fall further.
To protect the property market and stabilize the economy, grasp it with both hands, and both hands are equally hard.
03 Market
During the Spring Festival, tourism hit a new peak, and everyone was playing around, shopping, traveling, buying a house and looking at a house for the time being, so the market data for the Spring Festival holiday was lackluster.
After the holiday, judging from the reaction of the first-line market, there are more listings for rent, but there are also more people looking at houses, and the attention of information about real estate on the Internet has also rebounded significantly.
In the second half of last year, most of the front-running** was cleared.
Among them, there are those who have completely lost confidence in real estate and are afraid of further development, those who are in urgent need of cash flow, those who have emptied their domestic assets and run out, and those who have sold their properties in big cities and returned to their hometowns.
This batch of people who are the first to smash and sell, it is also on the buying software that the transaction price is lower than the other.
This part of the inventory** is gradually decreasing, although there will be new low prices**, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly.
Of course, there may be a wave of listings next. 2020 and 2021 are big years for property market transactions, and a considerable number of them will successively take over houses and meet the conditions for sale restrictions.
However, due to the high cost of buying a house during this period, coupled with the relatively new age of the building, the owner can cut the meat, but if it is not a last resort, it will not be too ruthless, which will also add a certain amount of support to the bottoming.
In addition, after more than a year of recuperation in the post-mask era, although residents' incomes have been affected to a certain extent, expenditures have also shrunk, household savings are still growing, the leverage ratio continues to decrease, and the rigid demand that has been pent-up for a year will be further released this year.
As a result, this year's market should be significantly better than last year's.
Summary
The property market has not yet bottomed out, but it seems to have passed the most difficult and dark period. The direction and sustainability of the bailout have been very clear, the relationship between supply and demand is in the process of effective market self-regulation, and the bottom of the long-awaited market has been looming.
Buyers, please walk and see more and wait and see.
The market dynamics in March and April, first be an experienced property buyer, and then choose the opportunity to become an actual home buyer.
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