Text |Bank Screws **Please obtain my authorization, and indicate the author and source).
After World War II, U.S. stocks experienced three bull and bear markets.
The first round was after World War II, when the economy recovered rapidly and ushered in the first 10 years of the 60s of the 20th century.
But against the backdrop of rising interest rates in the 70s, there was a 10-year bear market in U.S. stocks.
The second round, starting from the early 80s of the 20th century, started with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8-9 times for U.S. stocks and lasted until 2000.
This is also the longest bull market in U.S. stocks since World War II.
But because of the relatively high valuation, coupled with the financial crisis in 2008, from 2000 to 2009, nearly 10 years later, the US stock market has been cut in half.
However, in the time of the financial crisis, there was once again a 5-star investment opportunity in the US stock market.
It is a good start for the next round of bull market, which is also the third round of bull market for U.S. stocks after World War II.
In 2008, the financial crisis halved the global market.
The S&P 500 was at its 2009 low, only 42% of what it was in 2000.
Other markets also suffered during the financial crisis:
Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell to its lowest point in the last 30 years.
A-shares, the biggest drop in history.
In 2009, in order to stimulate the economy, various countries around the world launched stimulus policies.
U.S. stocks also launched the biggest stimulus package since the Great Depression in 1929.
It has successively launched several rounds of easing policies to release water for the market.
Stimulated by a large amount of capital, and the valuation of U.S. stocks in 2008-2009 also returned to the 5-star level.
U.S. stocks gradually recovered in 2010 and began to slowly**.
From 2009 to 2012, the global market gradually stabilized and recovered.
In the middle, there was a European debt crisis.
In 2009, Greece declared its own fiscal deficit of 12% of GDP, well above the 3% cap set by the European Union.
Global rating agencies downgraded Greece's credit rating, causing Greek government bonds to plummet.
It also indirectly led to a round of ** in the European market.
The European debt crisis has dragged down the performance of several European markets.
In 2009-2012, the bear market was undervalued for a longer period of time.
However, the European debt crisis has had little impact on U.S. stocks. By 2012, the U.S. stock market gradually came out of the impact of the financial crisis.
Throughout 2008-2012, for 4-5 years, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were mostly 4-5 stars.
Valuations are also one of the lowest in the past 30 years, and the bear market has been relatively long-lasting.
After 2013, U.S. stocks gradually returned to normal valuations.
The fundamentals of listed companies are also gradually returning to pre-financial crisis levels.
During the period from 2013 to 2016, U.S. stocks were undervalued and at normal valuation levels for most of the time.
After 2017, two things have promoted the valuation of the US market to further increase.
First, in 2017, the United States launched the largest tax cut plan in history.
We mentioned earlier that index points = earnings * valuation.
For listed companies, earnings = income - expenses.
One of the largest expenditures is, of course, the expenditure of taxes.
The tax reduction of listed companies means that the company's earnings increase under the same income.
It can be used to increase the amount of dividends or buybacks to shareholders.
* The value of the market has also increased significantly, and the valuation pivot of U.S. stocks has increased.
Recuperation has always been a good way to rebuild after a crisis.
Of course, if there is a tax rate increase in the future, it will be the opposite, which will pull down the valuation of US stocks.
Second, from 2017 to 2020, the interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds gradually declined.
At its lowest point in 2020, the yield on 10-year Treasuries was less than 1%.
From the early 80s of the 20th century, the interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 10% to less than 1% in 2020.
This is also a 30-40 year cycle of interest rate declines for U.S. stocks.
Lower interest rates have also been significant in boosting market valuations.
Therefore, taking 2016 as the dividing line, it will be observed that the valuation of U.S. stocks after 2016 is significantly higher than that of the valuation center of U.S. stocks in the previous 10 years.
These two factors have propelled U.S. stocks out of a 10-year bull market from 2008 to the end of 2019.
To sum up, the third round of the bull market in the U.S. stock market is divided into three stages.
From 2008 to 2012, the financial crisis brought about a great opportunity for a sharp decline and a bear market underestimate.
From 2013 to 2016, U.S. stocks gradually returned to the normal range.
From 2016 to 2019, tax cuts and interest rates fell, bringing about an increase in the valuation center.
The book we explained "70 Years of U.S. Stocks", the data of the backtest is around 2019.
In fact, after 2019, there have been wonderful ups and downs in U.S. stocks**.
If you are interested, you can introduce it separately after the screws.
U.S. stocks also have a bull and bear market, but the bull and bear market cycle is much longer than that of A-shares, and a round of bull and bear market even reaches 10-20 years.
U.S. stocks will also encounter irrational bubbles, such as the Nasdaq rising to 100 times in 2000.
There are also irrational panic crashes, such as the 2008 financial crisis.
Taking history as a mirror, we can know the rise and fall.
Understanding this history can help us better invest in the future
Author: Bank Screw**Please obtain my authorization, and indicate the author and source).
PS: Friends who are interested in index**, welcome to read "Index ** Investment Guide" and "Ten Years of Financial Freedom of Regular Investment".