Text |Shen Yi is a professor and director of the Research Base for International Governance in Cyberspace, Fudan University.
All three major U.S. stock indexes fell by at least 1. last week after chipmaker Nvidia's huge revenue drove a new round of bullishness on artificial intelligence (AI).3%。"The people who made the most money during the mid-19th century gold rush were those who sold gold panning tools, not those who found it," said Baird, head of investments at AJ Bell. In fact, Nvidia is playing the same role in today's technological revolution. "If we do not use the development of artificial intelligence as a subject to boost confidence in the financial market, nor are we interested in replicating the legend of shovels, mineral water and jeans during the gold rush in the western United States, but recognize and understand the development of artificial intelligence from the perspective of new quality productivity, then it may be said that it is time to pay attention to avoid the risks and challenges brought about by the two misunderstandings of the arms race during the Cold War and the financial bubble after the Cold War.
The so-called misunderstanding of the arms race refers to the erroneous perception of the relationship between the advanced and the advanced when the United States and the Soviet Union launched the nuclear arms race during the Cold War. As a result of this arms race, the United States has found itself in the form of a so-called "super-killing" capability: one side declares, "I can blow you back to the Stone Age, five times"; The other side declared, "I can blow you back to the Stone Age, 6 times"; Because it was 6 to 5, the latter side won. But the reality is that both countries are in a security dilemma and need to devote more resources to destroying "redundant" nuclear power**. The misconception of the arms race of artificial intelligence is to treat a single technology path, a single solution and the core indicators of a single component as all. Core indicators are undoubtedly critical and important, but they are by no means the only ones.
What's more subtle is that for NVIDIA, China, the world's largest single market, the most important profit**, and the most strategic ability in the systematic ecological layout of artificial intelligence, has been insulated from NVIDIA's most advanced products, and the services that can be provided by the computing center established in the United States using NVIDIA's most advanced products, at least at the theoretical and public level. Does it make sense to say that the best shovel is not sold to the miners who are most likely to find gold? This is a question that Nvidia needs to think about.
In the consumer market of personal information products, there is a truth that may be overlooked: in the final analysis, the chip process itself cannot be used as a meal, and the advancement of the chip process ultimately needs to be verified in the actual experience of the end user. Performance indicators may be one of the tools for a single enterprise to win the confidence of the capital market, but the broader market recognition and acceptance is based on user feelings, or in other words, value creation in the true sense of the sense.
Another issue that needs to be considered by other entities other than the relevant companies is how to avoid the risks brought about by the misunderstanding of the post-Cold War financial bubble. The misunderstanding of financial bubble refers to a choice caused by the entire ecology and model of "information technology revolution + venture capital" that started in the United States after the Cold War: the main force of the information technology revolution is to choose the financial market or choose to empower the real economy. Judging from similar themes to artificial intelligence, some Chinese netizens have done a not very complete combing: from the mid-to-late 90s of the 20th century to the beginning of this year, at least three large-scale impacts have been experienced by IBM's "Deep Blue" supercomputer, Google Alpha Dog and the metaverse. Every time a shock comes, it seems to be a decisive blow to the new quality of productivity, but in reality, the revenue of the relevant companies is still limited to specific technological advances. According to the latest financial report, advertising will remain Google's core business in 2023, accounting for nearly 80% of its total revenue.
Choosing to empower the real economy is to use artificial intelligence as an element, a catalyst, and a tool to create and release new quality productivity. A typical example is the close integration of 5G and big data with the real economy and real industries, and the specific application in industries such as ports, terminals, mines, fisheries, and transportation.
Choosing different directions and emphases requires an overall strategic vision, a need to go beyond the cognitive constraints of a single technical indicator, and a grasp of the cognitive and decision-making ability of complex systems in the real sense. In the future, the competition between different subjects of artificial intelligence, in addition to the competition of resources and technology, will be more affected by macro strategy and path selection. Only by being able to choose the right strategy and avoid obvious misunderstandings can we truly grasp the initiative of the strategic competition behind artificial intelligence, and even win the final victory.