The Spring Festival in 2024 is off to a good start, and the total consumption data exceeds expectations. The longest Spring Festival stall in history drove the strong performance of service consumption industries such as tourism, catering and box office, catalyzing the recovery of the large consumption sector.
Since the end of 2018, the CSI All-Index Optional Consumption Index has risen upward, hitting a high around the Spring Festival in '21, and then starting to decline. **For a long time, how do you look at the track of optional consumption at the current node, and what is the way to invest?
Optional consumptionvs Required Consumption
The consumer industry has always been seen as an evergreen track. Comparing the long-term returns of the MSCI Developed Markets Consumer Staples and Consumer Staples Index with the MSCI Developed Markets Index, we can see that the global market consumer sector has consistently outperformed since 2000The consumption track has significant excess returns for a long time.
In recent years, more and more people have paid attention to investment opportunities in the consumer sector.
Required
RequiredIt is the most basic and frequent consumption in our daily life, and most of them are just needed consumer goods, such as agriculture, animal husbandry and fishery products, food and beverages, household personal items, standing medicines, etc., and we call them "milk and bread".
This kind of consumption is related to people's basic life, regardless of the changes in the external economic environment, people's fixed life needs will not change much, thereforeLess cyclical, less income elasticity of demand, and greater resilience to fluctuations in the economic cycle.
Optional consumption
Optional consumptionIt is a consumption other than essential consumption, covering all aspects of family and personal life, such as home appliances, cars, luxury goods, entertainment and leisure, etc., which we call "poetry and distance".
The demand for this type of consumption is inherently weaker than that of compulsory consumption, and people usually consider using the remaining funds for optional consumption on the basis of satisfying the required consumption. Optional consumptionIt is more cyclical and has the characteristics of upgrading, and the other side of strong volatility is higher growth and return on investment.
Optional consumptionThe way of investment
In terms of the optional consumption track, what is its internal investment logic?
Recovery: The prosperity of the consumer industry has improved
Since 2023, China's GDP growth has bottomed out and rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of **4 in the third quarter9%, GDP reached 3036 trillion. Consumption is the main driving force for the recovery of the domestic economy in the third quarter of 2023Consumption's contribution to China's GDP rose from 67% in Q1 2023 to 95% in Q3.
Looking further ahead, with the continuous recovery of the economy, per capita disposable income has bottomed out**, consumer demand is expected to continue to expand, and the prosperity of the consumer industry will increase.
Domestic demand: Continued support from pro-consumption stimulus policies
From the policy aspect, since the end of 2022, policies to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand have been continuously introduced, and the ** economic work conference in mid-2023 will take "focusing on expanding domestic demand" as a key task in 2023Priority is given to reviving and expanding consumption, and domestic demand is becoming an increasingly important driver of the economy.
Entering the new year, the policy support effect has emerged. The Ministry of Commerce has set the tone for 2024"Year of Consumption Promotion"., since the end of JanuaryStabilize real estate, promote infrastructure, expand consumption, and ease moneyand many other policies have been accelerated.
Going to sea: The rise of independent brands is at the right time
The product power of China's consumer goods has shifted from Made in China to Chinese brands, and domestic enterprises are expected to cultivate new growth curves and open up market space by going overseas.
In terms of Europe and the United States, the demand for terminal consumption and inventory replenishment in developed countries in Europe and the United States is expected to drive domestic exports to continue to perform well in the new year, and with their social development entering a mature stageConsumption growth opportunities are more reflected in the structural track.
In addition, the GDP growth of core developing countries is faster than that of developed countries, taking the Asia-Pacific region as an example, Vietnam and Thailand have accelerated economic growth, and many consumer industries are still in the cuspThe increase in the penetration rate of various consumer goods and the policy drive of the "Belt and Road" are expected to become a fertile ground for Chinese brands to go overseas in the future.
Optional consumptionIs there a chance?
It reflects the overall performance of companies in the optional consumer goods industry in Shanghai and ShenzhenCSI All-Index Discretionary Consumption Index (**000989).sh）Since the highest point in June '15, the index has been(Data**: Wind, high point time is 2015.)06.12. Data as of 202402.21) Even if it has been nearly 3 years since the latest high, how should we see the current investment opportunities for optional consumption?
Long-term performance is good, and long-term yields are resilient
First of all, in terms of the historical performance of the CSI All-Index Optional Consumption Index, since the base date (200412.31), the annualized return of the index is, outperforming the SSE 50 Index, CSI 300 Index and Shanghai Composite IndexThe market after the index can be expected. (Data**: Wind, as of 2024.)02.21）
Bringing together high-quality industry leaders, the net profit growth rate is expected to remain at a high level
The constituent stocks of the CSI All-Index Optional Consumption Index are the best as a whole, including the industry leaders in the household appliances, automobiles, and trade and retail industries, and in the representative weight of these optional consumer sectors, Gree Electric Appliances has risen cumulatively since 2000, Supor has risen cumulatively, China's China Duty Free cumulative gains990.62%, with impressive long-term returns. These leading companies have a competitive advantage, according to the Wind consensus estimate, as of December 18The unanimous** net profit growth rate of the top 10 heavyweights remained at a high level, with a median value
The opportunity value range, the growth can be expected
Compared with historical valuations, the latest PE of the CSI All-Index Optional Consumption Index is17.91 times,In the past five yearsquantile to enter the opportunity value range (data**: wind, as of 202402.21）。From the perspective of the Wind's consensus expected net profit attributable to the parent of the index, the expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the year was 26633.2 billion, 32349.2 billion and 38852.7 billion yuan, under the economic recovery in 2023, the year-on-year growth rate will beThe industry's earnings are expected to continue to improve, and the future growth of the index is promising.
A new member of the Konatsu familyChinaAMC CSI All-Index Optional Consumption ETF (**562580, Subscription**: 562583The ETF closely tracks the CSI All-Index Optional Consumption Index, providing a tool for investors who are optimistic about the long-term growth of demand in the consumption track, the overseas growth of domestic consumer goods, and the recovery of consumption in the context of income recovery.
In view of the development prospects of the consumption track in the new year, Debang** analysis believes that with the steady development of the economy in 2024, the consumer confidence index is expected to be restored, thereby promoting the performance of domestic demand; At the same time, going overseas has become an important increment for domestic enterprises in the future, and domestic exports are expected to continue to perform well this year.
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The CSI All-Index Consumer Discretionary Index was launched on August 2, 2011, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a full annual performance for 2018-2022. 88%、-4.77%、-18.56%, the historical performance of the index is not indicative of the future performance of the product.
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