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Iran is an important country in the Middle East and a strategic partner of China in the Belt and Road Initiative. Recently, there have been some changes in the political situation in Iran, which may affect Iran's relations with China.
The Guardian Council of Iran's Constitution is Iran's highest political body, responsible for vetting candidates**, parliamentary and expert meetings, as well as overseeing the conduct of Iran's supreme leader. The Supreme Leader of Iran is the supreme power and religious leader of Iran and is currently held by Ayatollah Khamenei.
The Council of Experts is another important body in Iran, consisting of 88 religious scholars who are elected every eight years.
The main responsibilities of the Council of Experts are to appoint or remove the Supreme Leader and to oversee his work. With Khamenei 84 years old and in poor health, the election of a new meeting of experts is in the spotlight and is considered to be the key to determining the future direction of Iran.
However, Iranian officials recently announced that the Guardian Council of the Constitution rejected the application of former Hassan Rouhani to participate in the expert meeting on the grounds that he was not eligible.
Hassan Rouhani is Iran's moderate leader who served as ** from 2013 to 2021, during which time he promoted the JCPOA with the United States and diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.
Rouhani, who has been a member of the Council of Experts since 1999, is barred from running for election and is undoubtedly a major blow to moderates and a sign that the policy direction of the Rouhani era will be abandoned.
After Rouhani stepped down, Iran's ** was replaced by the hard-liner Ibrahim Raisi. Raisi, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and a senior cleric, is considered a close confidant of Khamenei.
After Raisi came to power, Iran's foreign policy underwent some changes, especially in relations with Saudi Arabia.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are two hostile forces in the Middle East, representing Shiite and Sunni interests, respectively. The wars between the two countries in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and other regions have caused a large number of humanitarian crises.
Tensions were further heightened in 2016 when the two countries severed diplomatic relations over the execution of a Shiite leader by Saudi Arabia.
However, after Raisi came to power, Iran and Saudi Arabia began secret dialogues in an attempt to ease the contradictions between the two sides and restore diplomatic relations. This move has been supported and promoted by China, which, as an important partner of the two countries, hopes to see stability and peace in the Middle East.
China has also put forward the initiative of the "Middle East Security Dialogue Platform", inviting all countries in the Middle East to participate in jointly safeguarding regional security.
The reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not only conducive to the economic development and improvement of people's livelihood in the two countries, but also conducive to the overall harmony of the Middle East region. Iran's toughness is not a blind confrontation, but a demonstration that it will not succumb to Western pressure and maintain its independence.
And this has become a kind of mainstream in the Middle East, and the countries of the Middle East are tired of American interference and hegemony. Therefore, the hard-line Raisi can win the respect and understanding of US allies in the region.
Returning to the Iran expert meeting, Rouhani's ban from running reflects Iran's future direction, which is that rapprochement with the West will be put on hold for a long time and replaced by a general direction that is currently in the same direction.
Iran's current general direction is to consolidate the "iron triangle" relationship with China and Russia, use the opportunity of reconciliation to repair relations with more Arab countries, and then jointly control the situation in the Middle East with other influential countries in the Middle East, such as Turkey and Egypt.
Raisi's role in this process cannot be underestimated, as he is not only Iran**, but also a member of the expert meeting, and Khamenei's right-hand man.
Raisi has successfully promoted rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and has also played an important role in cooperation with China and Russia. Raisi's influence will grow and he is expected to become Khamenei's first man.
This is not without precedent, Khamenei also served as Iran** before succeeding Khomeini. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was the leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution and the founder of Iran's Supreme Leader system.
As a cleric, Khamenei received support and became Iran** and later the supreme leader. Now, another cleric, Raisi, has also become a ** and may be on the same path to power as Khamenei.
If Raisi does become Khamenei's successor, Iran's policy direction will be more stable and clear, and more in line with China's interests. China and Iran have signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement covering energy, infrastructure, finance, military and other fields.
The cooperation between China and Iran will help promote the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and maintain peace and stability in the Middle East.
China should seize the opportunity of the political changes in Iran, strengthen friendly relations with Iran, and jointly build a new order in the Middle East.