Recently, the news about the 2 trillion level ** entering the market is flying all over the sky, but the effect is not good, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 053, but the Hang Seng Index closed up 263％。If the 2 trillion level standard ** really enters the market, at least it can be boosted in the short term, and stopping the momentum of ** will also be of great help to the reconstruction of investors' confidence, soThe market is waiting.
Many investors have heard of the leveling, because the leveling in the global market has appeared many times, and can often save the falling **, stop the fall and rebound, but she is also very "mysterious". Leveling, also known as stability or intervention, is a list of quality authors that is generally set up by a specific agency in a statutory manner to stabilize the market. Judging from the previous experience of leveling the operation of the first level, the issuers are mainly the first and the central bank, and financial institutions will also participate; Funds mainly include central banks, banks, securities firms, insurance companies, trust companies and listed companies. The leveling in ** is specially set up for stable **operation**, and has three major characteristics:Non-profit, policy-based, and large-scale.
The first non-profit is easy to understand, and the "responsibility" of leveling ** is stability**, and even a bit of "at any cost"; The second one doesn't say; The third large-scale, leveling ** must be large-scale, and the amount of capital is large enough to stop the irrational violent fluctuations of ** and stabilize the market, which is "at the expense of scale".
(1) China's H-shares: foreign exchange ** vs. Soros
In 98, international capital led by Soros launched a sniper attack on Hong Kong** and the foreign exchange market, shorting Hong Kong** and the Hong Kong dollar on a large scale, and superimposed unfavorable factors such as the Asian financial turmoil, on August 13, 98, the Hang Seng Index fell to the bottom, down 59 during the year63 hit a five-year low.
The next day (August 14), the Hong Kong Monetary Authority used foreign exchange for the first time, and surged ** blue chips such as HSBC and Hong Kong Telecom, and the Hang Seng Index stopped falling and rose 847％，In the following half a month, Hong Kong has spent a total of 118.1 billion Hong Kong dollars on 33 blue chip stocksThe foreign exchange market has been successfully stabilized, and Hong Kong stocks have also begun to stabilize and rebound. Four years later, in 2002, Hong Kong recovered all of its foreign exchange** and transferred its holdings to investors through TraHK**.
(2) Japan: Equalizing the first three entries, bank funds have become the main force
Japan's leveling ** was established relatively early, and there have been three representative market entries in history.
1964-1965. In 1963, Japan's economic fundamentals declined, and the increase in taxes on funds raised by the United States led to the default of a large number of investment trusts in Japan and the collapse of Japan. The Nikkei 225 index fell 26% during the year, and at the beginning of the next year, Japan bailed out the marketMobilize 14 banks and four major ** companies to jointly invest 190.5 billion yuan to set up "common *** super-falling index constituent stocks." Japan ** began to stabilize, but because this is the first time that the market has been leveled ** and the scale is not large, the Nikkei index has only rebounded by about 3 in half a year. January 1965,322.7 billion yen combined ** into the market ** outside the constituent stocks**,In the short term, the Nikkei index stabilized, but in the long run, Japan's entry into the market failed, and the Nikkei 225 index continued after a short period, falling 13 on June 30, 196561％。
1995 year. Japan's "Disappearing Decade" experienced an asset bubble, with the Nikkei 225 Index from a year-to-date high of 19,72476 points fell more than 5,000 points to 14,29590 points, a half-year decline of 2752％。In June of that year,Japan immediately organized the banking industry to set up a 2 trillion yen scale of **stable** to enter the market, followed by the half-year Nikkei index stopped falling**, and the second half of the year basically erased the decline in the first half of the year.
After 2010. After the 2008 international financial crisis, 2010The Bank of Japan personally went out *** and ETFsThe scale of funds reached 100 million yen, which greatly improved the most liquidity. For more than a decade since then, the Bank of Japan has become an important force in maintaining market stability, especially during the new crown epidemic in 2020, when the Bank of Japan once again spent trillions of yen** ETFs.
(3) South Korea: Equalization of the first supporting policy combination
South Korea has also been quite effective in the operation of leveling the first level, and has appeared many times in history to save the market, especially in the combination of a complete set of economic policies, which has achieved remarkable results.
1990 year. In April 1990, the Korea Kospi Index was **24 for the year21, the time is short, and the economic fundamentals of South Korea are also in a downward channel, in May of that yearKorea Bank, brokerage and insurance companies jointly invested 59$200 million was established for the first time to enter the market, the index stabilized and rebounded for a month**1682％。However, by mid-to-late June, South Korea's GDP growth peaked and fell, and it re-entered the channel, falling by 24 in less than two months56％，In September, the trust company made an additional capital contribution of 38US$500 million to establish a "guaranteed share price**".Once again, the stock index has successfully stabilized in the short term, and this time the one-month index has a straight line of **3546％。
In 2003. The collapse of economic fundamentals and the credit card crisis led to a sharp drop in South Korea, with the KOSPI falling by 31 in one year as of February 2003. Subsequently,**Exchange Association**Industry Association and **Custody Center were established with a scale of 400 billion wonEnter the market to maintain stability. By the end of 2003, the index** had risen by 3740％。
In 2008. Under the international financial crisis, the South Korean Kospi fell by 36 percent in the second half of the year08, South Korea shot again and prepared a scale for515 billion won. This time, the market was leveled, with a series of policy combinations (interest rate cuts, restrictions on shorting, etc.), while South Korea's GDP growth bottomed out, as of September 2009, the South Korean stock index ** 5319％。
(4) The United States: leveling the first rescue agency, and the failure ended
In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out, and the global economy was implicated.
On September 15, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the subprime mortgage crisis, and the global financial crisis detonated, and as of October 10 (less than a month), the Dow Jones index ** 3080％。During the period, the Federal Reserve and the top ten banks in the United States established a $70 billion leveling standard, and the Treasury Department also launched a $250 billion leveling levelThe first is to protect financial institutions at risk of bankruptcy, the second is to buy preferred shares in banks and financial institutions, or to protect financial institutions. This failed leveling ** entry failed to stop the index from falling and stabilized, but only continued after a short **"day trip**.
(5) China A-shares: "bull to bear" in 2015
On June 12, 2015, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Management of External Access to the Information System of ** Company", which signifiedClean up the over-the-counter allocationof the beginning. The Shanghai Composite Index rose from a bullish high of 5178 in the first half of the yearAt 19 o'clock (June 12), the waterfall **, the lowest on July 9 was 337354 points, a drop of 34 in less than a month34％。
During the period, on July 4, 21 brokerages invested 120 billion yuan in ** blue chips; On July 5, Huijin continued with the support of the central bankBlue chip ETFs；On July 8, an additional 70 billion yuan was added**Small and medium-sized stocks。Before mid-July, 17 commercial banks contributed a total of 13 trillion yuan to enter the market to stabilize the market. However, this time the market entry only brought a small and short-lived Shanghai Index, and in the context of a bad environment, the Shanghai Index bottomed out for the second time in August. Subsequently, funds entered the market again, the RRR and interest rates were cut, and the pension market was introduced, and the Shanghai Composite Index was able to stabilize and rebound.
Through the above review of the domestic and foreign leveling standards, we found that not every time the leveling standards enter the market can achieve the purpose of "saving the market", and the results of the 2 trillion leveling standards after entering the market need to be viewed cautiously.
The short-term hedging effect of leveling ** is obvious, but not necessarily in the medium and long term, it is possible to test new lows after a short period of **. The short-term stabilization of the market can stop falling, and the long-term market boost, the improvement of economic fundamentals and the improvement of policy coordination efficiency are particularly important.
Leveling should target blue chips and small and mid-cap stocks, rather than the main body of the institution, etc., and it is the first ** and then the small and medium-sized cap, just like the recent Chinese prefix of A shares, 601**, during this period, the small and medium-sized market ** fell very badly, and the small and medium-sized market ** should also be taken care of.
3) Judging from historical data, when the decline reaches 25%-30% during the general period, the level will enter the market, according to 3400 points of A sharesIt will probably need to fall to around 2400 points, level the ** entry.