Text: Liu Lanchang.
One of the most watched events in the world this year is the United States*** This election has attracted much attention, mainly because it is believed to be a battle between two older politicians. In the previous four years, Biden defeated Trump to get the position, and now Trump wants to return. Many polls show Trump leading Biden by a wide margin in many swing states. Biden has also faced questions about his age, and even some Democratic supporters believe that he is too old.
Some predict that there could be an episode in this campaign in which Trump runs against a woman named Haley, who also wants to be the Republican nominee, although at a clear disadvantage. At the same time, it is worth noting thatWithin the Democratic Party, U.S. Deputy Harris has publicly stated that she is ready to take over Biden's position at any time. This statement has attracted widespread attention, because Harris should first express confidence in Biden's physical condition, rather than immediately expressing his willingness to take over. This may suggest that Biden's health is in doubt. Therefore, the world is closely watching this dispute between the two old men that affects the international situation.
Regarding the China factor, we know that both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States have made "anti-China" the main topic, but in recent years, Biden has gradually adjusted his China policy in an attempt to repair relations with China. How Biden and Trump will articulate their China policy during this election campaign will also be closely watched. Trump has publicly stated that if he takes office again, he will raise tariffs on China from the current 25% to 60% or more. However, many believe that he is just talking, and if elected, he may lower the tariffs. As for Biden, what will his China policy be?
In addition, Trump himself faces numerous legal battles, and he may allegedly have to pay up to 3$5.5 billion in compensation costs. However, he may find a solution to get rid of these troubles. If he succeeds in resolving these legal issues, he could become the Republican Party's ** candidate in July or August of this year. On the other hand, Democratic Deputy Harris and other potential candidates are also eyeing up, including Obama's wife, Michelle. These intentions will gradually surface in the coming months, and after March 12, the Republican Party will hold a series of state-level ballot elections, which will determine the general trend. Democrats, on the other hand, are likely to start the campaign process, but progress is likely to be slower.
In the coming period, Sino-US relations will face certain uncertainties. While for now, Biden has been trying to de-escalate the conflict with China and is committed to managing tensions between the two countries, such efforts could be challenged by a number of factors. One of the most important factors is the political environment in the United States. Both Trump and Biden have the potential to have an important impact on U.S.-China relations. And, with the vagaries of U.S. politics, especially during the election period, the U.S.-China relationship is likely to face more uncertainty and risk.
Another factor affecting Sino-US relations is the war in the Middle East. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, then relations between China and the United States may deteriorate further. Therefore, in the face of uncertain international situation, we should pay close attention to the dynamics between China and the United States so that we can take timely countermeasures.
From the perspective of the US side, Sullivan's speech at the Brookings conference revealed Biden's China policy thinking. He believes that the United States and China must coexist and cannot see China as an enemy. The United States needs to strengthen its own productivity, focusing on manufacturing and high-tech investment, while limiting China's high-tech development. In addition, he put forward the concept of conflict management, emphasizing the need to avoid uncontrollable tensions between the two countries. This line of thinking is relatively mature and pragmatic, and it is also the main direction of Biden's China policy.
Against this backdrop, we should maintain our focus on our own affairs and pay close attention to developments between China and the United States. At present, Sullivan's speech reflects Biden's China policy direction, and Sino-US relations may gradually cool down rather than warm up in the future. At the same time, we should also note that Biden's relatively moderate approach to China is in stark contrast to Trump's irrational China policy.
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