For neighboring Philippines, hyping up the Taiwan Strait issue to interfere in China's internal affairs is undoubtedly a strategic trap, but unfortunately, the Philippines is now jumping into this trap step by step. Who is it, and why is it setting such a trap for the Philippines? Of course, the *** authorities in China's Taiwan region and the United States, which is regarded as a close ally of the Philippines. And the reason why they want to set this trap for the Philippines is naturally that they see the careful thinking of the Philippines - trying to use the hype of the Taiwan Strait issue to engage in the so-called "encirclement of Wei to save Zhao" and force China to make concessions on the South China Sea issue.
However, the mainstream at home and abroad, including the Philippines, believes that China and the Philippines are close neighbors and the friendship between the two countries has a long history, and China has never invaded and colonized the Philippines, while the United States has colonized the Philippines for nearly half a century. Therefore, if disputes arise between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea in recent years, it is entirely possible to negotiate and negotiate through the existing dispute settlement mechanisms between the two countries, and they should not threaten China with the core of China's core interests, let alone become a pawn used by the United States, which has never given up on turning the Philippines into a colonial country, to contain China's rise, and fall into the "Taiwan Strait trap" designed for it step by step.
The perfidious Marcos was willing to be a pawn of the colonizers to contain China
From the election campaign** to his election in May 2022, to his inauguration in June of that year, and when he visited China six months later, Marcos's remarks were full of friendship with China, but after returning from his visit to China, he suddenly embarked on an extremely anti-China path.
On May 18, 2022, Marcos, who had just been elected as the new Philippines**, said that under his leadership, the relationship between the Philippines and China would be "raised to a higher level." When talking about the South China Sea issue, Marcos even warned that "if the United States is allowed to come in, it will be an enemy of China." ”
In order to prove that he has developed positive relations with China, Marcos also mentioned the role played by his late father Marcos Sr. in opening up diplomatic relations between China and the Philippines in a statement at that time, saying that "in the future, we will not only develop diplomatic and diplomatic relations with China, but also resolve our current minor differences in the fields of culture, education, knowledge, and health." ”
In January, Marcos, who was running for office, said, "Duterte's engagement with China is the only choice for the Philippines, and China is the most important partner of the Philippines, and its relationship with China affects the economic development of the Philippines." ”
From January 3 to 5, 2023, Marcos began his three-day state visit to China. Before his visit to China, Marcos expressed the significance of his visit to Beijing at a press conference: "I will open a new chapter in our comprehensive strategic cooperation with China." I look forward to the acceleration of Philippine-China relations, and hope that it will bring prospects for peace and development and abundant opportunities to the people of our two countries. ”
During Marcos's visit to China, he once again mentioned that the Marcos family has always been committed to Sino-Philippine friendship - in 1974, at the age of 17, he accompanied his mother, the former first lady of the Philippines, Imelda Marcos, to visit China for the first time, and was cordially received by President *** and other Chinese leaders at that time. Marcos said that because of his family, he has always regarded China as a friend. Marcos said that he will continue to strengthen the bonds of friendship between the people of the Philippines and China, and promote bilateral relations to reach a higher level of cooperation.
During his visit to China, Marcos witnessed the signing of a number of cooperation documents between the two countries. At that time, he said, "China is the strongest partner of the Philippines, and nothing can stop the continuation and development of Philippine-Chinese friendship." The Philippines adheres to the one-China policy. The Philippines is willing to continue to properly handle maritime issues through friendly consultations and resume consultations with China on oil and gas development. ”
For Marcos's remarks on friendship with China, China and the Philippines at that time spoke highly of it, and both gave many blessings to the future relations between the two countries.
However, less than one month after returning to the Philippines from his visit to China, on January 31, when US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin arrived in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, and met with Marcos, Philippine Defense Secretary Garvis, and National Security Adviser Arnold, Marcos suddenly turned his face on China.
During Austin's trip to the Philippines, the Philippines opened five military bases to the U.S. military for training, building military facilities and storing equipment. These include two bases near Luzon in the northern Philippines – Cagayan Island Naval Base (about 400 kilometers from Taiwan) and Batanes (less than 200 kilometers from Taiwan). Marcos did not shy away from opening military bases to the US military when talking about "once Chinese mainland implements military reunification with Taiwan, these bases will be useful for the US military to protect Taiwan." ”
In addition to opening the two closest military bases to Taiwan to U.S. forces, Marcos also restarted joint U.S.-Philippine maritime patrols that had been suspended since Duterte's presidency. It is worth noting that from this moment on, Marcos, with the support of the United States and Taiwan, also began to frequently play the "Taiwan card" and directly participated in interfering in Taiwan Strait affairs.
On May 1, 2023, Marcos, as the first Filipino to visit the United States in nearly 10 years, met with Biden at the White House, completely changing the foreign policy of "the Philippines maintains a neutral position and has no intention of getting involved in the great power competition between China and the United States" pursued since Duterte, and also made a qualitative change in China-Philippines relations - Marcos not only seeks to establish friendly relations with the United States on the South China Sea issue, emphasizes the importance of the United States as an ally of the Philippines, and will follow the terms of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Philippines. He demanded that the United States protect the Philippines by force, and claimed that it would establish trilateral military cooperation among the United States, Japan, and the Philippines "to counter the growing Chinese threat."
Perhaps because of U.S. assurances, the Philippines has launched a number of provocative actions against China in the South China Sea since last year.
In addition to frequently launching provocative actions against China in the South China Sea, Marcos also followed the example of the United States and played the "Taiwan card" against China since then -- in addition to providing the US military with several Philippine military bases near Taiwan to interfere with China's reunification, Marcos even echoed the United States during his visit to the United States, hyping up for the first time "the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait." In the second half of last year, Marcos and other Asian allies of the United States, such as Australia, South Korea, and Japan, on many occasions hyped up the issue of "the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," which has nothing to do with the Philippines.
On January 13 this year, after the election in the Taiwan region, Marcos ignored the one-China principle recognized by the international community and blatantly posted through social platform X the erroneous remarks of "congratulating Lai Qingde on his election as Taiwan's next term on behalf of the Filipino people". During his visit to Vietnam on January 30, Marcos once again took the opportunity to hype up "the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."
Former Philippine Duterte criticized Marcos's actions on Taiwan-related issues as endangering Philippine national interests.
The United States and Taiwan have been infiltrating the Philippines for a long time
The mainstream on both sides of the strait and in the Philippines believe that there is a serious confrontation in Sino-Philippine relations, especially Marcos's rare meddling in the Taiwan issue and interference in China's internal affairs, which is mainly related to the long-term infiltration of the Philippines by the United States and the Taiwan authorities.
The Philippines was once a colony of the United States, and the United States regarded the Philippines as a "non-NATO ally." After more than 300 years of Spanish colonial rule, the Philippines declared independence on June 12, 1898. In the same year, the United States occupied the Philippines under the Treaty of Paris after the war against Spain. During World War II, the Philippines was occupied by Japan. After the end of World War II, the Philippines became a colony of the United States again and became independent on July 4, 1946. In 1947, the United States and the Philippines signed the "Military Base Agreement" and in 1951, the "Mutual Defense Treaty" was signed, according to which the United States stationed troops in Subic Bay, Clark and other places in the Philippines for a long time. However, the Philippine Constitution, which came into effect on February 11, 1987, stipulates that after the expiration of the term of US military bases in the Philippines in 1991, the Congress must decide whether to extend the lease period. In 1991, the Philippine Senate annulled the "Agreement on Military Bases" and announced the end of the 93-year US military presence in the Philippines. In 1998, the two countries signed the "Visiting Forces Agreement", which led to the return of US troops to the Philippines and the resumption of large-scale joint military exercises between the two countries. After the 9/11 incident, Philippine-US military cooperation has been significantly strengthened.
According to Huang Ruili, a senior reporter for the New York Times, Marcos's sudden "abandonment of China" is related to the Philippine military's long-term infiltration by the United States and Marcos's long-term pro-Western political orientation. The U.S. colonial rule of the Philippines has cultivated a large number of ** Philippine forces, especially the Philippine military has been infiltrated by the United States for nearly a hundred years, and almost the vast majority of professional soldiers have been trained and funded by the United States in various periods, and they have an inextricable relationship with the U.S. military. As a result, in recent decades, the military has been involved in many campaigns against Philippine anti-American leaders. And Marcos was heavily influenced by the military.
Judging from Marcos's political leanings and upbringing, he has always been pro-Western. Marcos studied at Oxford University in England, and the young Marcos loved watching Formula 1 cars and loved Western rock**, especially Eric Clapton and Beatles guitarist George Harrison. In the 80s of the last century, the Marcos family also went to Hawaii for political reasons to take refuge, and Marcos himself has always admired the Anglo-American political system.
In addition to the infiltration of the United States, after Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, in order to decouple from the mainland economically and seek a "breakthrough" in "diplomacy", she launched the "New Southbound Policy", and the driving force behind it was Huang Zhifang, head of Taiwan's foreign affairs department during the *** period. In recent years, Huang Zhifang has used Taiwan's "Foreign Trade Association" as a political "white glove" for the authorities to carry out infiltration plans in Southeast Asia and South Asia. Especially in India and the Philippines, they have mobilized a large number of Taiwan-funded enterprises to invest in the Philippines and India with the Taiwan Chamber of Commerce in the Philippines and India as the starting point, and in the process of investment, the intelligence and foreign affairs personnel of the Taiwan authorities have infiltrated the above-mentioned countries under the cover of being businessmen, established relations with local officials, and "opened up territory" for the authorities to establish quasi-official relations in the above-mentioned countries, and opened the way with money to provide political contributions for some ** and politicians in the above-mentioned countries. In the Philippines, in addition to bribing Philippine and congressmen, they also established "ministerial-level" exchanges between Taiwan and the Philippines on the grounds that Taiwan has advanced experience in earthquake resistance and disaster reduction.
At the same time, the Taiwan authorities have also formulated and implemented a long-term plan aimed at cultivating future pro-Taiwan outstanding young political elites for the Philippines and other Southeast Asian and South Asian countries -- * The authorities allocate huge sums of money every year to support thousands of young political elites from the Philippines and other Southeast Asian and South Asian countries to study in Taiwan, and many of the recipients of the grant are the children of the above-mentioned countries.
In addition, Taiwan has opened up a large number of Filipino maids to enter the Taiwanese labor market. Taiwan's "Foreign Trade Association" said that up to now, the number of Filipino workers in Taiwan is as high as more than 160,000, "which makes many Filipinos grateful to Taiwan."
It is precisely under the long-term infiltration of the United States and Taiwan that the current Philippines is willing to become an anti-China chess piece of the United States and Taiwan. A number of observers on both sides of the strait said.
In fact, a settlement mechanism has existed between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea issue for a long time
However, in the eyes of many observers on both sides of the strait, Marcos's meddling in the Taiwan Strait is a stupid move and a dead move, and the Taiwan issue is a "trap" and a fire pit for the Philippines and Marcos, and it is impossible for China to trade its core interests with the Philippines, and Marcos and the Philippines should return to the consensus reached with China during their visit to China last year - in the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea" and the "UN Charter" and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
* Believes that the South China Sea dispute is not the whole story of bilateral relations. As neighbors, China and the Philippines had exchanges between the two countries as early as the Tang Dynasty more than 1,000 years ago. In modern times, overseas Filipino Chinese have actively participated in the Philippine national independence movement and the struggle against foreign invaders, and they have supported each other and shared weal and woe with the Filipino people. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations, cooperation between the two countries in various neighboring areas such as politics, economy and trade, culture, science and technology has continued to develop. At present, China is the largest partner of the Philippines, the third largest export market and the largest importer, and the third largest foreign investment country in the Philippines. Historically, China and the Philippines have not been enemies, and neither will China and the Philippines be enemies in the future. Therefore, pursuing a policy of good-neighborliness and friendship is an inevitable choice for the two countries. Moreover, China and the Philippines have long had a joint solution to the South China Sea dispute, and there is no need to involve foreign forces.
The reporter noted that before the 60s of the 20 th century, the Philippines had never made a claim to sovereignty over the Nansha Islands. Since the 70s of the 20th century, the Philippines has gradually encroached on and occupied eight islands and reefs, including Mahuan Island, Feixin Island, Thitu Island, Nankey Island, Beizi Island, Xiyue Island, Shuanghuangshazhou and Commander Reef. In 1978, the Philippines incorporated the occupied islands and reefs into part of the province of Palawan, called the "Kalayaan Islands", and in 2002, the "Kalayaan" city** office was moved to Thitu Island. Driven by economic interests, the Philippines has been engaged in oil exploration activities in the South China Sea since the mid-70s. At the beginning of 1995, when China built a refuge facility for fishermen on Mischief Reef, the Philippines made unreasonable representations to the Chinese side.
When Comrade Laurel, then Deputy of the Philippines, first put forward the initiative of "shelving disputes and joint development". In 1996, the then China and the then Filipino Ramos confirmed this consensus. Subsequently, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation and the Philippine National Oil Corporation signed a joint working agreement in some areas of the South China Sea. In March 2005, China, the Philippines and Vietnam signed the Tripartite Joint Maritime Work Agreement in the South China Sea Agreement Area in Manila, through which they fulfilled their respective countries' commitments to turn the South China Sea into a "region of peace, stability, cooperation and development". After 2008, the Philippine opposition hyped up the tripartite cooperation as it violated the Philippine Constitution, and the cooperation came to a standstill. In March 2009, Arroyo, then the Philippines**, signed the Territorial Sea Baselines Act, which for the first time designated Scarborough Shoal and part of the Nansha Islands in the Zhongsha Islands (known as the "Kalayan Islands") as Philippine islands. In April, the Philippines submitted an application to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. In response to the illegal acts of the Philippines, China issued a statement and repeatedly submitted solemn remarks to the Philippine side.
Since then, the Philippines has repeatedly provoked and made small moves on the South China Sea issue despite the fact that "China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and its adjacent waters". In July 2010, when Aquino III took office as the Philippines, the Philippines took the United States as the backing of its islands at a time when the United States announced its "pivot to the Asia-Pacific region" and implemented a "rebalance strategy". The Philippines' stance on the South China Sea issue has become tougher and even intensified. In April 2012, the Philippines illegally attacked and harassed Chinese fishing boats and fishermen in the waters off Huangyan Island. In January 2013, China-Philippines relations fell to a historical freezing point due to the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration" concocted by the Philippine side.
However, with the assumption of the former Duterte in the Philippines, China-Philippines relations have improved significantly. During the Duterte era, China and the Philippines got closer and closer, which made the United States hold a grudge, and from time to time it would do something to coerce and lure the Philippines, and even let some international organizations find trouble with Duterte.
Many people on both sides of the strait and in the Philippines believe that China and the Philippines are close neighbors, and peace between the two countries will benefit both sides, and fighting will hurt both. "What we urgently need now is for the Philippines and China to sit down and work together to resolve their differences through negotiation and dialogue, and to discuss what can promote cooperation between the two sides, rather than choosing vicious competition and mutual hostility. If those offensive unilateral actions continue, China-Philippines relations will become more unmanageable. Rommel Banlaoi, chairman of the advisory board of the Philippine University for New Era's China Studies Center, said.
In the view of Anna Malindog-uy, vice president of the Philippine Asian Century Institute for Strategic Studies, the resolution of disputes in the South China Sea cannot be achieved overnight, and this requires all parties to seek common ground while reserving differences and promote the early conclusion of the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" under the ASEAN-centric framework.
Many observers on both sides of the strait believe that the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines will eventually return to the negotiating table to settle no matter what, and the intervention of the United States and other foreign forces will only complicate the situation, and the Philippines should maintain a high degree of vigilance against the United States and Taiwan, and must not continue to walk into the "Taiwan Strait trap" designed by the United States and Taiwan. Otherwise, it will only be the Philippines itself that will be hurt in the end.
*: "People's Political Consultative Conference Daily" (2024-02-03 Edition 05) Reporter: Gao Yang Layout Editor: Gao Yangxin**Editor: Hong Lin Review: Zhou Jiajia