In December, the hydrothermal conditions in most parts of Europe and North America were good, which was conducive to the safe wintering of crops.
In January 2024, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of precipitation in the southern hemisphere on the growth and development of corn and soybean.
Summary: In December, the temperature in the main winter wheat producing areas of the United States was high, and most of the farmland moisture was suitable, which was conducive to the safe wintering of wheat. The southern part of Argentina and Brazil has more precipitation, which is conducive to the sowing and seedling growth of corn, soybean, cotton and other crops. The hydrothermal conditions in most parts of Europe are good, which is conducive to the safe overwintering of winter wheat and the growth of crops in southern China. Rainy weather in northern France and western Germany has led to late sowing and weak growth of some wheat and rapeseed. The weather was fine in most of Australia's agricultural areas, and the harvest of wheat, barley, rape and other crops was smooth. The corn producing areas in South Africa have good hydrothermal conditions, which are conducive to the growth of corn and other crops.
Satellite remote sensing monitoring results show that the growth of winter wheat in the United States and soybean in South America is more favorable than that of the same period last year. In January 2024, Europe and North America need to pay attention to the impact of strong cooling and farmland drought on the safe wintering of winter wheat, and South America and South Africa need to pay attention to the impact of temperature, precipitation and soil moisture changes on the growth and yield of corn, soybean and other crops.
1. Agrometeorological monitoring.
In December, winter wheat in the north-central United States entered the overwintering stage, and winter wheat in the southern part of the United States was in the tillering growth stage. Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean are in the sowing and seedling stage; Indian wheat is in the tillering to jointing stage; Most of the winter wheat in Europe has entered the overwintering stage, and the southern part of France and Germany is in the slow growth stage. Australian winter wheat is in the ripe harvest period; South African maize is in the seedling growth stage.
1. North America. In December, average temperatures were above average for most of the United States1 6 in most of the United States, including most of North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, northeastern Missouri, and northern Illinois6 (Figure 1). Precipitation is concentrated in the northwestern and east-central regions of the United States, with 25 100 mm of precipitation, 100 250 mm in some areas, and no or less than 25 mm in most of the rest (Figure 2). The precipitation in some areas of central and eastern China was 3 to 2 times higher than that of the same period in normal years, and the soil moisture shortage in some farmlands in Kansas and Oklahoma was significantly alleviated. Most of the winter wheat areas have good hydrothermal conditions, which are generally conducive to the safe wintering of wheat, but some wheat areas are not covered by stable snow cover, and the risk of frost damage and drought increases. Precipitation in Montana, Colorado and Wyoming was 3.9 percent less than normal for the same period of the year, and agricultural drought persisted in some areas.
Figure 1 Average temperature anomalies in the United States in December 2023.
Figure 2 Precipitation in the United States in December 2023.
2. South America. In December, the average temperature in most agricultural areas of Argentina was close to the average for the same period of the year (Figure 3), with precipitation of 25 250 mm (Figure 4), and the precipitation in the eastern agricultural areas was 3 to 2 times higher than that of the same period of the year, which effectively increased the soil moisture of farmland, and the sowing progress of corn, soybean, cotton and other crops was significantly accelerated, but the rainy weather caused the winter wheat harvest progress in some areas to be slower than that of the same period last year. As of December 28, the sown area of corn was 79% of the planned area, and the soybean sowing area was 81%; cotton sowing was 77%, 3% faster than the same period last year; The wheat harvest was 78 percent, 16 percentage points slower than the same period last year.
In December, the average temperature in most agricultural areas of Brazil was higher than that of the same period in normal years1 4, and the precipitation in the central and western agricultural areas and northeastern agricultural areas was low, and agricultural drought persisted in some areas. Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul received 25,100 mm of precipitation, locally more than 100 mm, and the overall hydrothermal conditions favoured the growth of crops such as maize and soybeans.
Fig. 3 Average temperature anomaly in Argentina in December 2023.
Figure 4 Precipitation in Argentina in December 2023.
3. Asia. In December, the average temperature in most parts of India was close to the average for the same period of the year or higher than 1 2 (Fig. 5), and most of the agricultural areas in the central and northern parts of India had no precipitation or less than 25 mm of precipitation, and the precipitation in some areas was 25 50 mm (Fig. 6). The southern regions of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala received 25,100 mm of precipitation, and some areas received 100,250 mm, which is 5 to 2 times more than the average for the same period of the year, which is conducive to the growth of rice in the new season.
Fig. 5 Average temperature anomaly in India in December 2023.
Figure 6 Precipitation in India in December 2023.
In December, 100,300 mm of precipitation fell in the Philippines, Malaysia, and most of Indonesia, which was generally conducive to the growth of rice, maize, oil palm and other crops, with more than 300 mm of precipitation in some areas, and farmland suffered heavy rains and floods. Tropical Storm Gelahua made landfall near Davao East Province in the Philippines on December 18, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall, causing some corn and rice to be flooded and lodging. The rainy season is late in Java, Indonesia, and the seasonal rains in the second half of the year are conducive to the growth of crops such as rice, but there is still a shortage of water for agricultural production.
4. Europe. In December, the average temperature in most parts of northern Europe was 1 4 below average for the same period of the year (Figure 7), and there was more than 5 cm of stable snow cover in northeastern Poland and around the Baltic Sea, which was conducive to the safe wintering of winter wheat and other crops. In most of the other areas, the temperature was 1 4 high, and the precipitation was 25 100 mm, and the precipitation was 100 250 mm in some areas (Fig. 8), which further increased the soil moisture of the farmland, and the hydrothermal conditions were generally conducive to the safe wintering of wheat in the central part and the slow growth of crops in the south. However, due to the influence of rainy weather in northern France and western Germany, some wheat and rape were sown late, the growth was weak, and the seedling condition was uneven.
Fig. 7 Average temperature anomaly in Europe in December 2023.
Figure 8 Precipitation in Europe in December 2023.
5. Oceania.
In December, the average temperature in most of Australia's agricultural areas was close to or above average for the same period of the year (Figure 9), and most of the western New South Wales, western Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia received less than 10 mm of precipitation (Figure 10), 5 9 percent less than the average for the same period of the year. The precipitation in the central and eastern parts of New South Wales and the central and eastern parts of Queensland was 10 50 mm, and in some areas it was 50 100 mm, and the hydrothermal conditions were generally good, which was conducive to the growth of cotton, sorghum and other crops, but the precipitation delayed the harvest progress of wheat and other crops to a certain extent.
Fig. 9 Average temperature anomaly in Australia in December 2023.
Figure 10 Precipitation in Australia in December 2023.
6. South Africa. In December, the average temperature in the eastern agricultural areas of South Africa, such as Mpumalaga, the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal, was close to or high for the same period of the year, with 25 150 mm of precipitation. Most of the Northern Cape and Western Cape provinces had fine weather, with 5 35 mm of precipitation in the second half of the year, which was generally conducive to crop growth.
2. Crop growth monitoring.
1. U.S. winter wheat.
Satellite remote sensing monitoring results in December 2023 showed that compared with the same period last year, the growth of winter wheat in the United States was 48% flat, with a slight preference of 45% and a slight deviation of 7% (Figure 11), and the overall growth was more favorable than the same period last year.
Fig.11 Remote sensing monitoring of winter wheat growth in the United States in mid-December 2023.
2. South American soybeans.
Satellite remote sensing monitoring results in December 2023 show that compared with the same period of the previous year, the proportion of South American soybean growth is 59%, the proportion of slight preference is 26%, and the proportion of slight deviation is 15% (Figure 12), and the overall growth is more favorable than the same period of the previous year.
Fig. 12 Remote sensing monitoring of soybean growth in South America in mid-December 2023.
3. Focus of foreign agrometeorology in January 2024.
In January 2024, most of the winter wheat in Europe and the United States is in the overwintering period, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of low temperature frost damage caused by strong cooling processes and the decline of soil moisture in some areas on the safe wintering of winter wheat. Indian wheat has gradually entered the stage of jointing and booting, and it is necessary to pay attention to the effects of precipitation and moisture changes on the growth and development of wheat. South America and South Africa will enter the critical growth and development stage of maize and soybean flowering and grain filling, and it is necessary to pay attention to the effects of temperature, precipitation and soil moisture changes on crop yield formation (Fig. 13).
Fig. 13 Global agrometeorological concerns in January 2024.