A few days ago, Kazakh Tokayev met with Russian ** Putin, it is worth mentioningBefore this meeting, Kazakhstan had just undergone a "major reshuffle".
Tokayev meets with Putin].
On the 5th of this month, Tokayev announced that he had decided to dissolve the current **, and in this political storm, the first deputy prime minister of Kazakhstan, Scliyar, was urgently appointed as the ** prime minister until the dust settles on the formation of the new **. As for the reason for the dissolution, the official reason given by Kazakhstan is,Tokayev was dissatisfied with the slow progress in resolving socio-economic problems and the fact that they had reached a general stagnation.
But this reason is only one of themAnother purpose of Tokayev's move was to consolidate his power。You must know that most of the members of this session are quite close to the predecessor of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Speaking of which, I have to add to you the story between these two "predecessors and incumbents".
Nursultan Nazarbayev (also known as Nada Khan) was the first post-independence Kazakh**, who had a profound impact on the development and international status of Kazakhstan during his reign, took over his position after his resignation in 2019. It is worth mentioning that Tokayev was a senior diplomat during the Nazarbayev era and also made a lot of contributions to Kazakhstan. However,Nazarbayev rarely mentions him in his diplomatic memoirs, apparently not taking him seriously.
Nursultan Nazarbayev occupies a central position
In fact, in the early days of Tokayev's administration, the actual power of Kazakhstan was still in the hands of the Na family, as can be seen from some of the **releases**, when the two attended the event together,Nazarbayev will always occupy the central position, and Tokayev, who is the **, can only stand on the side.
And what is interesting is that Nazarbayev's eldest daughter Nazarbayeva also appeared frequently in **, combined with the Kazakh country when Nazarbayev** was in a difficult period of economic difficulties, a reasonable guess emerged: the reason why Nazarbayev was willing to abdicate was to alleviate the people's resentment caused by economic difficultiesHis original plan was to let Tokayev be a "gun blocker", survive this difficult period, and wait until his ** term expires, and let his daughter take overIn this way, the position of the Nate family in Kazakhstan is still unshakable.
However, he did a lot of calculations, but he still missed one item:Tokayev's strength and ambition are far beyond his control
In January 2022, a large-scale ** outbreak in Kazakhstan took this opportunity to dissolve the then Kazakh ** and carried out the first major reshuffle after taking officeAnd after that, on the charge of corruption, Nazarbayeva was abolished from her official position；At the same time, many of Knott's privileges were abolished by amending the law, and in addition, he proposed a series of aims to:Reform measures to eliminate nepotism and decentralize power in the political system gradually weakened the power of the Nate family. However, the Knott family has been operating in Kazakhstan for many years, and its power is deep-rooted, and it is naturally impossible to completely reshuffle it only by one or two major reshuffles, so it is not surprising that Kazakhstan is reorganized this time.
There is a large population of ethnic Russians in Kazakhstan].
It stands to reason that the reorganization of Kazakhstan is its own domestic affair, so why should it be linked to Putin, this is the relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia. The relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan has always been very delicate: on the one hand, the two countries are both former members of the Soviet Union, and after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, they have maintained close contacts, and the relationship can be regarded as close; But on the other hand, there is a subtle antagonism between the two countries, especially in the recent Russia-Ukraine conflictKazakhstan and Ukraine have many similarities, such as the fact that both countries have large ethnic Russian populations and the Russian-Kazakh border is more than 1,780 kilometers long. Therefore, this conflict has triggered a certain sense of crisis in Kazakhstan. Tokayev has publicly stated that he does not support the independence of the eastern regions of Ukraine (as we usually call Donetsk and Luhansk), and that he has also restricted the export of some products to Russia at the request of the United States.
For Russia, which has always regarded itself as a big country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan's repeated "offensive" actions are obviously uncomfortable, and it is precisely aimed at this point that the unwilling Nate family has found Putin. In December last year,Nursultan Nazarbayev made a surprise visit to Russia and held a secret meeting with Russian Vladimir PutinAlthough the two sides did not explain the purpose of the trip, they can be known after a little thoughtHis visit was nothing more than seeking support from the Russian side.
The Kremlin did not disclose the content of Nazarbayev's meeting with Putin
However, the Kremlin handled the issue very low-key, only confirming the fact that Nazarbayev was in Moscow, and did not mention anything about the content of the meeting, saying only that it was a "private meeting". Obviously,Putin has reservations about whether he wants to help Nazarbayev. And the subsequent silence of the Knott family seems to mean that Putin did not come to their aid.
Nowadays,After Tokayev's power was consolidated again, the first person to visit Russia was Russia, and it is clear that he still attaches great importance to the cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan. During their meeting, Tokayev expressed his position that Kazakhstan is actively implementing cooperation with Russia and has already achieved noticeable results. Putin also said that Russia is willing to further strengthen in-depth cooperation between the two countries in the fields of energy and investment.
Just imagine, if Putin really helped Nazarbayev, now Tokayev and Putin, it should be difficult to sit down calmly and talk about cooperation, the international situation is unpredictable, and a careless step may incur serious consequences, but until the moment of falling, no one can know the follow-up trend, and this time, Putin is undoubtedly the right bet.
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