In recent years, the international situation has changed, and the United States, as the former global hegemon, now seems to be standing on the edge of the cliff. Since 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the situation between North and South Korea have changed one after another, causing rifts in the global order of the United States. In China, the list of Loli Islands and the Texas conflict that broke out in just one month have revealed the seriousness of the internal contradictions in the United States.
Does all this indicate that the United States will launch a financial decisive battle with the outside world? Will China be able to hold its ground in this decisive battle and usher in a new dawn?
1. The background and motivation of the financial decisive battle in the United States.
It has been almost two years since the US interest rate hike in 2022, but the US does not seem to have harvested the "leeks" it wants. The $33 trillion debt hole makes it difficult for the average economy to satisfy the appetites of the United States. Although allies such as Europe and Japan can temporarily alleviate the plight of the United States, they are only a drop in the bucket after all. So, who does the United States really want to harvest? The answer may be China.
As soon as this rate hike cycle began, the US target was locked in for us. They tried to implement the financial harvesting plan by blowing up our offshore market, transmitting financial risks to the mainland market, and selling short A-shares. At the same time, they are pushing up the financial markets of Japan and India to undermine confidence at home and channel mass capital flight. The purpose of all this is to replicate the script of harvesting Southeast Asia in 1997 and to capture the fruits of our reform and opening up for more than 40 years.
2. The strategy and means of the financial decisive battle of the United States.
Blowing up the offshore market: Since last year, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has been continuous**, in this way to transmit financial risks to the mainland market. Then, Wall Street capital took advantage of the trend to sell short A-shares to hit China's financial market.
Pushing up Japanese and Indian financial markets: At the same time, the U.S. is pushing up Japanese and Indian financial markets in contrast to China's downfall. Japan's first march back to the first place in Asia; India** has also climbed all the way, surpassing Hong Kong stocks to become the world's fourth largest stock. This contrast has led to a resurgence of rhetoric about China.
Detonating China's real estate market: In addition to the above two measures, the United States is also trying to detonate China's real estate market. Some Chinese real estate companies have borrowed debt in the United States, such as Evergrande. One of the important reasons why Evergrande exploded at the beginning was that the debt of the United States matured, and as soon as the Americans demanded the debt, the cash chain was directly broken. The Americans' insistence on raising interest rates for a long time means that these Chinese real estate companies will face greater pressure to repay, and if they can't bear it, they will be blown up one by one.
3. China's strategy and means to deal with the financial decisive battle.
Stability: For the market, we will definitely take steps to stabilize the market. Recently, the news of the 2 trillion leveling ** bailout is a positive signal. Once the national team begins to intervene, there will inevitably be a fierce contest between China and the United States in the financial field. As long as we can stop the trend of the financial market, the optimism will soon be transmitted, and those words that sing the bad word about China will naturally be self-defeating.
Resolving real estate risks: We are now also actively mitigating the hidden dangers of the real estate industry and striving for a soft landing. According to the data, at the peak of real estate in 2021, the sales of the entire industry may have reached 18 trillion, and now this data has become 118 trillion. According to some institutions, the total sales volume of China's real estate industry is at least 6 trillion yuan. In other words, if we can resolve the risk of about 6 trillion yuan, we can basically achieve a soft landing.
The added value brought by industrial upgrading: With the rapid development of automobile, photovoltaic, chip and other industries, the added value brought by industrial upgrading is expected to wipe out the risks of the real estate industry. At present, China's automotive industry has reached a scale of 10 trillion yuan; The photovoltaic industry has broken through 15 trillion; The chip manufacturing field is also close to a trillion scale. In giving us some time, the added value brought by industrial upgrading is expected to exceed the risks of the real estate industry.
Fourth, the prospect and impact of the financial decisive battle in the United States.
The U.S. struggles to maintain high interest rates: The cost of maintaining high interest rates in the U.S. is enormous in the face of high debt. This will not only squeeze US spending on all fronts, but may also lead to serious consequences such as fiscal hollowing out or the collapse of the dollar's credit. Distortions such as inverted interest rates also show that the United States is struggling to sustain the current situation.
International cooperation and joint response: In the context of global economic integration, the economies of various countries are interdependent and mutually influential. Only by strengthening international cooperation can we jointly address global challenges and achieve common development and prosperity. Therefore, China should strengthen cooperation and exchanges with other countries to jointly deal with the financial decisive battle of the United States.
5. Summary and outlook.
In the face of the financial decisive battle of the United States, China needs to remain calm, strengthen confidence, strengthen supervision and strengthen cooperation. Only in this way can we remain invincible in this game of "cliff edge". At the same time, we also call on netizens not to be affected by negative remarks and to believe in China's development potential and prospects. Because in the decades since China's rise, we have made remarkable achievements. As long as we unite and work together, we will be able to create a better future!
In the days to come, China will continue to unswervingly promote reform and opening up, strengthen the construction and development of the domestic market, and improve the stability and anti-risk ability of the financial market. At the same time, we will actively participate in the construction and reform of the global economic governance system and promote the building of a more just and equitable international economic order. Let's work together to welcome a new dawn!