In 2023, the A** market will be significantly adjusted due to many factors, and the profitability of individual investors throughout the year will also be affected. However, the willingness of most surveyed investors to allocate equity assets is still relatively stable, and there has been no large-scale rebalancing after the Shanghai Composite Index fell below an important support level. In terms of market operation pattern, most investors believe that the index may fluctuate in a narrow range in 2024, and are optimistic about the trend of A-shares throughout the year.
Sixty percent of investors are bullish on A-shares.
The willingness to invest in equity is generally stable.
Looking ahead to 2024, nearly 60% of investors are bullish on A-shares, and 23% believe that the index will first decline and then rise, accounting for the highest proportion of all options. In the bottom stage of the index, more high-net-worth investors expressed their willingness to increase their positions against the trend compared with low-net-worth investors.
Bullish on the recovery of large consumer stocks.
According to the results of this survey, the proportion of individual investors who believe that A-shares will be the best in 2024 is 59%, a decrease of 18 percentage points from the first quarter of 2023. Among them, 27% of investors believe that the increase is more than 5%, and 32% believe that the increase is between 0 and 5%.
When asked about the annual trend of the A** market in 2024, 23% of investors believe that the index will first decline and then rise, accounting for the highest proportion of all options; 19% of investors believe that the index may be repeated in 2024, and some sectors will rise sharply; 16% of investors believe that the market will rise and fall; 11% of investors said the market would be unilateral**.
In view of the future trend of different sectors, 28% of investors** believe that A-shares are expected to see a pattern of recovery of large consumer stocks in 2024; 26% of investors are optimistic about Hengqiang, the strong track stock; Investors are bullish on financials and 7% on cyclicals.
The above set of data shows that the weakness in 2023** has made individual investors less optimistic about market expectations in the coming year. In terms of industry sectors, investors who are optimistic about consumer white horse stocks and technology stocks account for basically the same proportion, but neither has formed an overwhelming "consensus expectation", and investors' views on the main line of market hotspots in 2024 are still relatively scattered.
Sixty percent of investors maintain a stable asset size.
In this questionnaire survey, 10% of the surveyed investors said that the proportion of ** assets in their financial assets remained basically unchanged; 16% of the investors surveyed said that the proportion of account assets in their financial assets has increased or increased significantly; Another 44% of investors surveyed said that the share of account assets in their financial assets has decreased. This set of data was basically flat compared to the previous quarter.
From the perspective of control, as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the average of individual investors surveyed was 4183%, compared to 46 in the previous quarter88% averaged a decrease of 505 percentage points. In the fourth quarter of 2023, 23% of investors increased their positions, 49% reduced their positions, and another 28% said** that they remained unchanged. All of these figures were broadly unchanged from the previous quarter.
When asked about their consideration of future asset allocation, 60% of investors said that they would not significantly adjust the asset size of ** accounts, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous quarter; Twenty-seven percent of investors said they would increase their capital investment, a decrease of 5 percentage points from the previous quarter.
The above data shows that in the fourth quarter of 2023, investors did not carry out large-scale rebalancing, and the main reason for the decline in the proportion of individual investors' ** account assets in total assets may be the decrease in **net worth.
Further mining of the data shows that among the investors with assets of more than 500,000 yuan, 3745% of people are willing to increase the investment of ** account funds; Among investors with assets less than 500,000 yuan, this proportion is only 2403%。Some investors believe that the current valuation of equity assets is low, and the contrarian layout may have better returns. Among them, high-net-worth investors are more willing to increase their positions countercyclically.
Investment income in 2023** differentiated.
Looking back at 2023, only 32% of the surveyed investors achieved positive returns in 2023, which is also the low point of the last three annual survey results. From a structural point of view, in 2023, institutional heavy stocks will fall across the board, while the wave of conceptual themes such as artificial intelligence will rise again. In this context, the excess returns of individual investors have diverged, and the outstanding industries such as new energy and large consumption have underperformed in the previous round, and investors prefer thematic opportunities with high elasticity of stock prices or catalyzed by news.
Thirty percent of investors will achieve positive returns in 2023.
Looking back on 2023, the A-share index weakened across the board, especially in the second half of the year, in the context of the continuous implementation of domestic policies to stabilize growth, the fundamentals of A-share enterprises bottomed out, and overseas uncertainties eased, the recovery of market confidence significantly lagged behind the "policy bottom" and "profit bottom", resulting in the overall valuation level of the market falling to a historical low.
As of December 29, 2023**, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 297493 points, full year **370%；The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 13 respectively54% and 1941%。The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges traded 211 for the whole year61 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 87441 billion yuan.
For the full year, 32% of investors said they were profitable in 2023, down 5 percentage points from 2022. Among them, 21% of investors have a profit of less than 10%, 5% of investors have a profit of 10% to 30%, and 6% of investors have a profit of more than 30%. At the same time, 48% of investors said they lost money on their investments in 2023, up 8 percentage points from 2022, and another 20% said that the overall profit and loss was flat.
Judging from the survey data of previous years, the proportion of individual investors who achieved profits in 2021 and 2022 were 53% and 37%, respectively, while the annual increase of the Shanghai Composite Index in 2021 and 2022 was 48% and -1513%。It can be seen that the profitability of individual investors in the past three years has shown an obvious positive correlation with the trend of the previous years.
Unlike previous years, in the context of the downward trend of the index in 2023, the returns of high-net-worth investors and low-net-worth investors are basically the same. Among the investors with assets of more than 500,000 yuan, there are 3166% of investors made a profit; **Among the investors with assets of less than 500,000 yuan, there are 3148% of investors made a profit.
Significant divergence in investor excess returns**.
When asked which sectors will bring alpha in 2023, 24% of investors chose other, the highest percentage of all options. In the past two years, the track stocks represented by the new energy industry chain have brought investors annual excess returns. In 2023, the proportion of investors who believe that the excess return from investment mainly comes from technology stocks, cyclical stocks, financial stocks, and consumer stocks are % and 5%, respectively.
According to the results of this survey, 31% of investors said that track stocks represented by the new energy industry chain will bring the largest loss to themselves in 2023, accounting for the highest proportion of all options, far exceeding other sectors. 15% of investors said that the sectors that brought them the greatest losses were cyclical ** such as non-ferrous metals and shipping, as well as financial stocks such as banks, insurance, and brokerages; In addition, 11% and 8% of investors, respectively, said that the sectors with the most losses were technology stocks such as 5G and chips, as well as consumer stocks such as food and beverages and pharmaceuticals.
Looking back on the annual performance of A-shares in 2023, ** shows a significant "dumbbell-shaped" differentiation: on the one hand, the stock price has high elasticity or thematic opportunities catalyzed by news, and in the later stage, the market has even entered the trend of pursuing small-cap stocks and micro-cap stocks; On the other hand, the risk aversion of funds is high, and the high-dividend assets represented by the "dividend low volatility" have performed strongly throughout the year. The above set of data also shows that in the weak ** of "mud and sand", it will be difficult to form a hot and consistent investment main line in 2023, the wave of speculation in small and medium-sized caps will rise again, and the excess returns of individual investors will be significantly differentiated.
High-net-worth individuals add positions at the bottom.
Focus on high-dividend strategies in the fourth quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the A** field once fell below the 3,000-point mark. According to this questionnaire survey, after the index fell below the important psychological threshold, 54 of the investors with account assets of more than 500,000 yuan54% of people choose to increase their positions, and only 19 of the investors with assets below 500,000 yuan23% chose to increase their positions.
High-net-worth individuals add positions at the bottom.
It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the A** market fell again, falling below 3,000 points intraday. When asked how the Shanghai Composite Index would operate after it fell below 3,000 points, 35% of investors chose to hold their positions, accounting for the highest proportion of all options; 30% of investors said that they increased their positions slightly at the bottom, accounting for the second; Nearly 20% of investors chose to reduce their positions below 3,000 points.
From the overall situation, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index has been around 3,000 points**, and when asked how they think about the subsequent trend**, 53% of investors believe that the index is likely to continue to decline, accounting for the highest proportion of all options; 26% of investors believe that the bottom of ** has been basically proven; 21% of investors said they were unsure and needed to wait and see.
Further mining of the above data shows that in the cycle of continuous downward market decline, the behavior of high-net-worth investors to increase their positions against the trend is more significant. After the Shanghai Composite Index fell below the key point of 3,000 points, 54 of the investors with account assets of more than 500,000 yuan54% chose to increase their positions; Among the investors with account assets of less than 500,000 yuan, there are only 1923% chose to increase their positions. This set of data is also consistent with the survey results of the above-mentioned high-net-worth individuals who are more willing to increase their investment in ** account assets in the future.
The results of this questionnaire survey also show that 36% of investors plan to hold shares during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the beginning of 2023; The proportion of investors who chose to hold currency for the holiday was 43%, which was the same as the survey results of the same period last year; Another 21% of investors said they were not clear. 47% of investors believe that the spring 2024 restlessness** may be "missing", an increase of 7 percentage points from the beginning of 2023; Thirty-eight percent still have expectations for spring restlessness**, down 10 percentage points from the same period last year.
Seventy percent of investors focus on high-dividend strategies.
The following set of data will start from the position data of four sectors: financial stocks, consumer white horse stocks, technology growth stocks, and cyclical stocks, and observe the stock selection preferences of individual investors in the fourth quarter of 2023.
According to the results of this survey, the average number of financial stocks held by individual investors in the fourth quarter was 2177%, up 403 percentage points; The average number of consumer white horse stocks** is 2142%, up 204 percentage points; The average technology growth stock holding** was 25%, up 185 percentage points; The average number of cyclical stocks** held is 2154%, up 323 percentage points.
Looking at the single-quarter earnings data, among the investors who invested in financial stocks, technology growth stocks, consumer white horse stocks and cyclical stocks in the fourth quarter, the proportion of investors who achieved profits in the fourth quarter was % and 32%, respectively. Looking back on the fourth quarter of last year, the market style was dominated by the first theme, the plate rotation intensified, the industry hotspots lasted for a short time, and the investment returns of the four major sectors did not show significant differences.
The above set of data shows that the average number of tech growth stocks held by individual investors** is the highest among the four sectors, a phenomenon that has been carried out throughout 2023. At the same time, in the fourth quarter, financial heavyweights performed better against the trend, which also made investors pay more attention to them.
Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2023, dividend assets performed better. According to the results of this survey, 70% of investors allocate high dividends**. Among them, 44% of investors have appropriately allocated high dividends**, and 26% have allocated high dividends** significantly. When asked about the rationale for allocating high dividends**, 37% of investors said they could hold for the long term with peace of mind; 25% of investors believe that its dividend income is stable, exceeding bank savings; 10% of investors said high dividends** were relatively resilient.
In addition, the ** Economic Work Conference clarified the overall requirements and policy orientation of economic work in 2024. In this regard, 31% of investors said that the steady growth policy is conducive to stabilizing the financial market and boosting market confidence; 23% of investors said that the policy of stabilizing growth is expected to be further strengthened; 9% of investors said that it is conducive to stimulating sectors such as technology and high-end manufacturing; Another 5% of investors believe that it is conducive to stimulating sectors such as financials, real estate, and infrastructure.
The index** may become a safe haven.
In 2023, the enthusiasm of A-share investors to make new listings has declined, and at the same time, the investment income of investors in Hong Kong stocks in 2023 is also not high, with only 27% of investors obtaining positive returns in Hong Kong. It's worth noting that a fully diversified passive index** becomes a good safe-haven option during a market downturn.
The risk-off effect of the index ** is emerging.
In 2023, 47% of the investors surveyed kept their holdings unchanged overall, 32% subscribed, and 21% redeemed. Among the investors who subscribed**, 32% bought the index** product, accounting for the highest proportion of all options; Of the investors who redeemed**, 35% redeemed equity**, the highest percentage of all options.
When asked about the return of investment index products in 2023, 32% of investors said that they had achieved positive returns, which was basically the same as the proportion of investors who achieved positive investment returns in 2023; 41% of investors reported losses, 7 percentage points less than the proportion of investors who lost money in 2023**; Another 28% of investors said they broke even.
In terms of specific investment varieties, 28% of investors chose the Shanghai and Shenzhen Index Equal Broad-based ETFs, accounting for the highest proportion of all options; 20% of investors chose blue-chip ETFs such as consumer and pharmaceutical, ranking second. In 2022, the proportion of investors choosing blue-chip ETFs such as consumer and pharmaceutical ETFs is the highest, followed by the proportion of investors choosing Shanghai and Shenzhen index ETFs.
The above set of data shows that in 2023, the probability of individual investors getting positive returns from buying** and direct investment** is basically the same, but the probability of losing money on investment** is significantly reduced, which is also consistent with the motivation of most investors to buy** is less risky.
Sixty percent of investors insist on playing new.
In 2023, the performance of the new market will be stable as a whole, and the number of new shares issued will decrease compared with before. The results of this survey show that 77% of investors have a new income of less than 10%, an increase of 26 percentage points from 2022. Among them, 51% of investors have a return of less than 5%, and 26% of investors have a return between 5% and 10%.
More than 60% of investors said they would continue to make new deals, a decrease of about 10 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, 23% of investors said that they would still be mindless to make new products, which was basically the same as the same period last year; 40% of investors said that they would selectively hit new products depending on the specific situation, a decrease of 10 percentage points from the same period last year. In addition, 22% of investors said that they would observe for a period of time before deciding whether to make a new deal, an increase of 5 percentage points from the same period last year; 15% of investors said they would not participate in IPOs in the future, an increase of 3 percentage points from the same period last year.
The above set of data shows that the vast majority of investors still insist on playing new in line with the mentality of "can earn a little is a little", but in the past three years of survey, on the one hand, the difficulty of "brainless new" has risen, and on the other hand, the scale of the new market has declined, which makes individual investors' enthusiasm for new and income expectations have been adjusted to a certain extent.
Nearly one-third of Hong Kong stock investors have positive returns.
In 2023, affected by the monetary tightening policies of major overseas central banks, the Hang Seng Index will accumulate **13 throughout the year82%。When asked about the investment income of Hong Kong stocks in 2023, 27% of investors said that they would maintain positive returns, which is 5 percentage points less than the average return level of A-share investors in 2023, and among the investors who made profits, the vast majority of them made profits within 10%.
When asked how they view the current investment value of Hong Kong stocks, 41% of investors said that Hong Kong stocks have investment value, but there are short-term downside risks, and they still need to wait and see, accounting for the highest proportion; 20% of investors believe that Hong Kong stocks are currently a value depression and are worth participating; 29% of investors said it was difficult to make a judgment at this time; Another 10% of investors said they were not optimistic about Hong Kong stocks.
The survey results show that Hong Kong stock trading still accounts for a low proportion of all transactions of surveyed investors. 30% of individual investors said that Hong Kong stock investment accounted for less than 10% of their trading, accounting for the highest proportion; 29% of investors said that Hong Kong stocks accounted for 10% to 20% of the investment**. Among the main ways to invest in Hong Kong stocks, ETFs and other ** products have occupied the mainstream for three consecutive years, with 53% of investors choosing to buy**; 24% of investors chose Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Editor-in-charge: Ren Haopeng |Review: Li Zhen |Supervisor: Wan Junwei.
*: Shanghai ** Daily).