The situation in the South China Sea has recently undergone three noticeable changes, which have touched the nerves of China and the Philippines.
The first change is that the Chinese Navy's military deployment in the South China Sea has been strengthened, with at least one Type 052D destroyer stationed in the South China Sea, and according to foreign media reports, another ship of the same type may sail into the South China Sea. This is the lead ship of the Chinese Navy, with strong firepower and air defense, and is a powerful response to the situation in the South China Sea.
The second change is that the focus of the standoff between China and the Philippines may have shifted from Second Thomas Shoal to Mischief Island. According to foreign commercial satellites, Chinese and coast guard vessels can be seen operating near Mischief Island, while no ships from both sides have been spotted around Second Thomas Shoal. Does this mean that the Philippines has given up its provocation on Second Thomas Shoal and has instead attacked Mischief Island? Unlikely. Mischief Island is an important island and reef base for China in the South China Sea, with airfields and ports on it that can deploy fighter jets and **. The Philippines will not touch this hard bone easily. More likely, the Philippines wants to expand the scope of the confrontation after the setback at Second Thomas Shoal, including Mischief Island and Scarborough Shoal in its provocative plans, in an attempt to distract China's maritime power and find a breakthrough in Second Thomas Shoal.
The third change is that China's top leadership issued a stern warning, and the People's ** published an article by a bell commentator pointing out that the Philippines' behavior in the South China Sea is "extremely dangerous" and that China will defend its rights and interests in accordance with the law and resolutely fight back. The bell commentator's article is considered to be the voice of China's top leadership, with the homonym of "zhongsheng". Historically, the bell commentators once issued a warning before the self-defense counterattack against India and Vietnam. This time, although this sentence was not used, it also showed China's determination and attitude. Earlier, the People's Liberation Army Daily also published an article by a Junsheng commentator, emphasizing that China's sovereignty is inviolable and warning the Philippines. From the sound of the bell to the bell, from the top of the military to the top of the country, China's escalating warnings to the Philippines show that China's tolerance and patience have reached the limit.
What do these three changes mean?
First, China's naval surge is a military deterrent to the Philippines and a military response to the United States. The Chinese navy's military deployment in the South China Sea is not only in response to provocations by the Philippines, but also in response to U.S. interference. The United States has continuously sent military aircraft to the South China Sea in an attempt to create incidents in the South China Sea and undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea. The main ships of the Chinese Navy can effectively defend against US military threats and safeguard China's security interests. At the same time, the lead ship of the Chinese Navy is also a kind of warning to the Philippines, letting the Philippines know that China has enough strength to deal with their provocations and not to leave anything to chance. The Chinese Navy's lead ships may also indicate that the Chinese Navy's military deployment in the South China Sea will be further strengthened, which may mean that a critical moment in the confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has arrived, and this round of confrontation will accelerate or even end the confrontation, and China will defend its sovereignty and rights and interests at all costs.
Second, the expansion of the scale of the confrontation by the Philippines is a provocation to China and a gesture of goodwill to the United States. After the setback at Second Thomas Shoal, the Philippines wants to expand the scope of the confrontation and include Mischief Island and Scarborough Shoal in its provocation plan, trying to distract China's maritime power and find a breakthrough in Second Thomas Shoal. This is a provocation by the Philippines, which shows that the Philippines is unwilling to accept China's legitimate claims, abide by international law and the code of conduct in the South China Sea, and resolve disputes through peaceful negotiations, but wants to change the status quo in the South China Sea through force or threat. This is also a gesture of goodwill by the Philippines, which shows that the Philippines wants to use the power of the United States to confront China, and wants the United States to play a greater role in the South China Sea and give the Philippines more support and protection. This move by the Philippines is not only a provocation to China, but also a violation of peace and stability in the South China Sea and a damage to the interests of all countries in the South China Sea.
Third, China's solemn statement is a warning to the Philippines and a statement to the United States. China's top brass issued a stern warning, and the People's Republic published an article by a bell commentator pointing out that the Philippines' behavior in the South China Sea is "extremely dangerous" and that China will defend its rights and interests in accordance with the law and resolutely fight back. This is a warning to the Philippines, indicating that China will not tolerate any provocation by the Philippines, will not give up any inch of territory, will not concede any rights and interests, and will not violate any principle, if the Philippines does not stop, does not change its degree, and does not return to the right track, then China will not hesitate to use all means, including force, to safeguard its sovereignty and rights and interests. This is also a statement to the United States, indicating that China will not back down because of US interference, will not compromise because of US pressure, and will not be shaken by US provocations, and that China will firmly defend its security interests, firmly safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea, and firmly promote cooperation and development in the South China Sea.
Recently, there have been three obvious changes in the situation in the South China Sea, which reflect the confrontation and conflict between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea issue, as well as the interference and provocation of the United States on the South China Sea issue. The increase in the Chinese navy is a military deterrent to the Philippines and a military response to the United States. The expansion of the scale of the confrontation by the Philippines is a provocation to China and a gesture of goodwill to the United States. China's solemn statement is a warning to the Philippines and a statement to the United States. These three changes mean that China's position and attitude on the South China Sea issue are firm and clear, and will not change due to any external factors. China will continue to safeguard its sovereignty, rights and interests in accordance with the law, continue to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, and continue to promote cooperation and development in the South China Sea. China hopes that the Philippines will recognize the situation, respect the facts, return to the right track, and resolve disputes through peaceful negotiations, rather than provoking China through force or threats. China also hopes that the United States will respect China's security interests, stop its interference and provocations in the South China Sea, and refrain from creating incidents in the South China Sea and undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea. China is willing to work with all countries in the South China Sea to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, jointly promote cooperation and development in the South China Sea, and jointly build peace and prosperity in the South China Sea.