Intel received the world's first high NA EUV, why wait?
The news comes after Intel announced the acquisition of ASML's world's first high-resolution extreme ultraviolet lithography machine, which has garnered a lot of attention around the world. However, like the current semiconductor giant TSMC, the company is still waiting for its time.
According to a number of ** disclosures, TSMC is now moving towards the 2 nm process, and it is expected to achieve mass production in 2025-2027, 1Mass production of 4 nm and 1 nm processes, while 1 nm processes will not be mass-produced until 2030. TSMC will not be at 2 nm and 1High NA EUV lithography is used in the 4 nm process and is only used at the 1 nm node in 2030.
However, TSMC's need for high-resolution extreme ultraviolet lithography machines is far less urgent than Intel's. One might ask why TSMC decided to wait a while for this crucial lithography revolution to begin.
First of all, it is necessary to understand that Intel is keen to introduce high-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography technology.
Hi-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography technology has the advantages of high resolution and narrow line width, and is one of the cutting-edge technologies in the field of semiconductor processing. Hi-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography improves the resolution of the pattern by increasing the lens parameters so that light is transmitted from multiple angles.
Through the implementation of this project, it is expected to obtain high-performance and low-power extreme ultraviolet lithography chips, which will provide strong technical support for the development of future technologies. As a result, Intel was the first to buy the device, putting it ahead of its competitors on devices.
However, in the face of such attractive technology, why is TSMC hesitant?This is a question that deserves in-depth study.
As a leader in the semiconductor industry, TSMC is very concerned about every move of TSMC. In view of the innovation of the high-NA extreme ultraviolet lithography process, TSMC decided to wait and see what happens, considering the following factors.
i.Cost factor.
High NA EUV lithography is a very expensive technology, with a reported cost of up to $400 million for the next generation of NA EUV lithography. In addition, the cost of chips manufactured with this technology is very high, and the unit price of 3nm chips is close to 20,000 US dollars, and the ** of the next generation of chips is only about 50% of it.
If you use expensive micro-imaging equipment, the cost will go up. Because the cost is too high, TSMC must carefully consider it when considering the introduction of this technology.
ii.Unknown market conditions.
Although there are many advantages to high-precision extreme ultraviolet lithography, the current market demand is not clear. In addition, due to the decline in mobile phone sales, manufacturers are less willing to buy chips, and TSMC decided to launch a new technology.
In addition, different manufacturers have different timings and strategies for launching high nanosecond extreme ultraviolet lithography technology, and market demand is also different.
As a market leader, TSMC must closely monitor market dynamics and adjust its technology rollout strategy in a timely manner in response to market demand. TSMC chose to wait and see because the market demand is still uncertain to fully grasp the market opportunities and ensure its competitive advantage.
iii.Take into account the risks of technological innovation and capacity enhancement.
With the advancement of semiconductor technology, more advanced process technologies may emerge in the future. TSMC must consider the risks brought about by technology iteration to avoid the adverse effects of future market competition due to the premature adoption of new technologies. As a market leader, TSMC understands the risks of technology iteration.
This requires TSMC to fully consider the risks brought by technology iteration when introducing new technologies, so as to ensure that its technological development trajectory remains unchanged.
In addition, TSMC's main revenue and profit** is advanced process technology, but at present, there is overcapacity in advanced processes, and some UV lithography factories have been shut down last year. If TSMC buys more equipment for its EUV lithography machine, TSMC will be deterred by equipment depreciation expenses alone.
In addition to the above three points, the reason for TSMC's wait-and-see attitude may also be due to the high technical threshold and the high demand for high NA EUV process technology. Overall, TSMC has a wait-and-see attitude towards high-NA EUV lithography technology innovation for a number of reasons.
However, this reflects TSMC's prudence and prudence as a market leader, as well as the complexity and uncertainty of technological innovation and market competition in the semiconductor industry. In this case, why did TSMC not compete with Intel for speed, but rushed to buy a high-precision EUV lithography machine?