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Text |Watching the tide of new consumption, author |Fairy, edEucommia.The aftermath of the new year is not over, and the new tea beverage industry has ushered in a new IPO.
On February 14, Shanghai Auntie (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. *** referred to as "Shanghai Aunt") submitted a report to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This is another new tea beverage company that is ready to be listed in Hong Kong after Tea Baidao, Gu Ming and Mixue Bingcheng.
According to the number of stores, Shanghai Auntie does not have an advantage over the above three companies, and it is difficult to stand out from the crowd in the most competitive mid-range ** belt. The only feature is that Aunt Shanghai is the number one overlord of new tea drinks in the north.
This also brings up a question that has plagued the industry for a long time: is the north a "desert" for new tea drinks?
The name of a "Shanghai aunt" confirmed the regional attributes of Shanghai aunts, but when they opened the prospectus, they found that the base camp of their stores was not in Shanghai, but in Shandong, which is also the hometown of the founders Shan Weijun and his wife.
Before starting their own business, Shan Weijun and his wife Zhou Rong both worked in the top 500 companies in the United States, and rose all the way to senior managers.
In 2011, Shan Weijun and his wife sold their property and vehicles in Shandong and moved their family to Shanghai. "Because of our previous work experience, we also thought about whether we could make our own brand and do a large-scale chain. Shan Weijun once mentioned that their early entrepreneurial goal was to become a "small shop", similar to the business model of Juewei duck neck, focusing on a high replication efficiency.
By chance, the couple saw in an old alley that a Shanghai old aunt ran a very popular bubble tea shop, who not only sold bubble tea and eight-treasure porridge, but also mixed eight-treasure porridge and milk tea together to sell.
The old aunt's inadvertent attempt made Shan Weijun and his wife feel like an apocalypse.
At that time, the era of new tea drinking had not yet arrived, and the mainland was still the world of Taiwanese milk tea, and although bubble tea shops were opened all over the streets, unhealthy stereotypes were still linked to it.
In contrast, mixing whole grains and milk tea in a freshly cooked way is both healthy and fresh, so in 2013, Shan Weijun and his wife opened the first milk tea shop in Shanghai People's Square, mixing healthy and nutritious dietary grains such as blood glutinous rice, red beans, barley, and oats with milk tea, opening up the "freshly brewed grain tea" track.
To commemorate the inspiration of the product**, Shan Weijun named the brand "Shanghai Auntie".
With the expansion of the store, Shan Weijun soon found that it was not easy to do milk tea business in Shanghai: high rent, high competition, high labor, and low profits. On the other hand, five-grain tea is more suitable for making hot drinks, which determines that Shanghai Auntie's products are more popular in the north.
So Shan Weijun set two tones for the expansion of Aunt Shanghai: all the way to the north and all the way to the sunk.
Although according to the explanation of the prospectus, the original intention of the northern expansion was only because the product was more suitable for the taste of northerners, but this unintentional move of inserting willows has achieved the status of the number one overlord of the northern new tea drink of Shanghai Auntie.
After 2015, with the emergence of Hey Tea and Nai Xue, the milk tea industry has entered the era of new tea drinks, and the pace of consumption upgrading has promoted the rapid expansion of the industry, which is directly reflected in the sharp increase in the number of stores.
But whether it is the Honey Snow Ice City that started in the north, or the ancient tea and tea Baidao that started in the south, its expansion pace has always been around the south, and the tea Baidao is mostly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai in addition to the base camp Sichuan, and only 2 of the 15 provinces in the layout of ancient tea belong to the north.
In addition, North China and even Northeast China are also important towns in Shanghai, while Jiangxi, Hunan, Fujian and other southern regions are rarely distributed.
Avoiding the southern part of the competitors, Aunt Shanghai kept running wild in the vast northern region.
In Tianjin, we set the strategy at the beginning to be continuous and intensive, and to realize our strategic vision first - people don't have to wait too long, they can buy in 15 minutes or even less. Shan Weijun once mentioned.
In the advantageous market, Shanghai Auntie will even open 6 stores within a radius of 500 meters, which seems to be a "cannibalistic" approach, but it also increases the brand's ** degree and achieves "aggressive" expansion.
According to the prospectus, as of September 30, 2023, the number of Shanghai Auntie's stores nationwide has reached 7,297, of which the number of stores in the northern region has reached 514%, in the mid-range ** band, Shanghai Auntie is also the new brand with the most stores in the north.
It was not until after 2019 that fruit tea became a dominant trend in the industry, and Aunt Shanghai turned the ship around and started the fruit tea business, and the southern market was further opened, and the growth of stores and revenue began to accelerate.
Shan Weijun once mentioned that after the overall transformation, the average customer price and the average product price have increased simultaneously, and the performance of a single store has increased by 30% year-on-year.
From the perspective of store volume, from 2013 to 2020, the number of Shanghai Auntie stores only expanded by more than 2,000, but from 2020 to 2023, its store volume exceeded 7,000.
Among them, the proportion of stores in the south will increase from 42 in 20211% rises to 48 in 20236%, and the corresponding proportion of northern stores is from 579% to 514%。
Source: Shanghai Auntie Prospectus).
But even if the north and south are combined, the data of Shanghai Auntie is still inferior to Gu Ming, which is also dominated by the sinking market but dominates the south.
According to the prospectus, in the first 9 months of 2023, Shanghai Auntie's operating income will be 253.5 billion yuan, corresponding to a net profit of 3$2.4 billion.
And Gu Ming's income in the first nine months of 2023 reached 557.1 billion yuan, net profit of 100.2 billion yuan, the number of stores reached 8,578.
In other words, in the case of a difference of more than 1,000 stores and similar belts (10 yuan to 18 yuan for Gu Ming, 7 yuan to 22 yuan for Shanghai Auntie), Gu Ming's revenue scale can be more than 2 times that of Shanghai Auntie, and the net profit is more than 3 times that of Shanghai Auntie.
Coincidentally, among the respective stores of Gu Ming and Shanghai Auntie, the proportion of stores in third-tier cities and below is 49%. This means that the basic tea drink in the sinking market in the south is much better than that in the north.
The gap between Gu Ming and Aunt Shanghai seems to prove the loneliness of new tea drinks in the north.
Since 2015, Nai Xue and Hey Tea swept the industry with 30 yuan**, the traditional milk tea has become a new tea drink that symbolizes consumption upgrading, creamer and non-dairy creamer have been replaced by fresh milk, and healthier and more expensive fruits have been widely used.
The reborn new tea drink is the first to break out in first-tier cities, and the stronger consumption power and traffic aggregation effect allow the new brand to not only eat sales but also win popularity.
So from the first line, the new front line to.
The second- and third-tier and even more sinking county and township markets have become the manifestation of the expansion of new tea beverage brands in the past decade, and the specific site selection has also experienced the layout process from the core business district to the streets and alleys to win sales.
In this context, southern cities with better commercial vitality have an advantage.
According to the data of the Orange Book of China's Physical Commercial Passenger Flow, the number of newly opened shopping malls in 2020 is ranked in East China, South China and Southwest China, respectively, and North China, Northwest China and Northeast China are 9.
There are many business districts in southern cities, and new and old business districts jointly support the business formats of multiple business districts, but the commercial vitality in the north is weak, and the business district is slow to renew, so new tea drinks can only choose the core business district to settle in. Shang Xiangmin, co-founder of Bawang Chaji, once said to Guanchao New Consumption (ID: Tidesight).
After starting in Yunnan, Bawang Chaji chose the first stop of nationalization in Chengdu, Sichuan, "Chengdu is the highland of catering consumption, if you can survive in Chengdu and polish the operation model, the survival rate of going to other regions will also be very high." ”
According to the data of Narrow Door Restaurant, as of press time, the number of Bawang Chaji stores nationwide has exceeded 3,500, of which the most densely distributed areas are concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Guangdong.
Even brands that made their fortunes in the North have to acknowledge the gap between the North and the South.
Fangha, which started in the northwest, is currently mainly deployed in Gansu and Qinghai, and Chang Ying, co-founder of Fangha, mentioned that the business district complex in the northwest is not prosperous enough, and there are not many commercial centers that brands can enter, so they need to get along with street stores more.
"The winter in the northwest is very long, October has entered the late autumn and early winter, and the peak season of new tea drinks is in summer, and the off-season is in winter, and winter has a great impact on the industry." "If there is no booth in the stall store on the street, consumers can only wait in line in front of the store in the cold.
The cold and long winters have also affected the opening hours of northern cities. According to Alibaba's "Night Economy" report, among the 10 cities with the most active nighttime consumption in the country, southern cities account for 9 seats, and only Beijing is the northern city on the list.
In contrast, the south, especially the southern part of the country, is almost unaffected by the climate. In fact, milk tea first flocked to the mainland from Taiwan, and South China, represented by Guangdong, was the bridgehead area.
Today, whether it is the research report of the map or the statistics of Meituan, the top three cities in terms of the number of bubble tea stores are all in Guangdong.
In addition to "time" and "people", "geographical advantages" also affect the layout of new tea drinks in the north.
The dilemma caused by geographical segmentation is mainly manifested in the construction of the first chain. For today's new tea drinks, which are becoming more and more sophisticated, raw materials have become a key part of the cost, and the bold innovation in materials has increased the probability of the birth of explosive products.
In tea, fruits, dairy products and many other small ingredients, fruit is the key to success or failure.
According to the 2022 New Tea Consumption Trend Report, the most popular type of new tea drink among "Generation Z" is fruit tea, with 305% of respondents ranked fruit tea as their favorite type of tea; "China's New Tea Drink ** Chain*** 2022" also shows that 70% of consumers choose fruit tea among the most commonly consumed new tea types.
On the other hand, fruits that are difficult to store and transport are also the largest part of the cost of raw materials, and the "2021 New Tea Drink Research Report" released by the China Chain Store & Franchise Association shows that the cost of fruits accounts for 30%-40%.
Long-distance transportation will undoubtedly increase costs, for example, Shanghai Auntie, whose stores are mostly located in North China and even Northeast China, but the mangoes it purchases come from Guangxi, and the mulberries are produced in Sichuan.
Source: Shanghai Auntie Prospectus).
In addition, the overall distribution of Shanghai Auntie's stores is also relatively scattered, covering 31 provinces across the country, in contrast, Gu Ming only has a layout in 15 provinces, of which 87% of the GMV is concentrated in 8 provinces, which is more convenient to use the scale effect to dilute the cost.
Under the influence of various factors, the new tea drink map in the north and south is no longer the same.
According to Meituan's 2021 statistics, the top 15 cities in China in terms of the number of bubble tea shops are Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Shanghai, Chengdu, Foshan, Chongqing, Nanning, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Quanzhou, Beijing, Wuhan, Kunming, and Changsha.
Among the cities on the list, Beijing is the only one from the north.
The head new tea drink brand, in addition to Aunt Shanghai, only Tianlala in Bengbu, Anhui Province has followed the road of making a fortune from south to north.
Tianlala was founded in 2015, the year when the era of new tea drinks opened, but unlike Hey Tea and Naixue who opened the high-end ** belt with 30 yuan, Tianlala dived into the county market with less than 10 yuan.
Like all new teas, Tianlala's initial expansion was centered on its headquarters, radiating to a surrounding 500-kilometer area, including Henan, Shandong and other places, and further expanding to Shanxi, Hebei and even the three eastern provinces in recent years.
Why go north instead of south? Xu Zhou, deputy general manager of Tianlala, first mentioned the topographical factor. "Taking our base camp Anhui as an example, northern Anhui is dominated by plains, while southern Anhui is mostly mountainous, the population in the plains is relatively concentrated, the population covered by the stores is wider, the taste difference will not be very large, and the market is better to play. ”
In terms of products, Tianlala is mainly fresh fruit tea, "The survey shows that the taste of our products is more popular with the northern market, so North China has become the primary development position." ”
* Factors are also taken into account, Xu Zhou mentioned that the initial product ** of Tianlala is basically about 5 yuan, "this ** is more suitable for expansion in the county market in the north, and the ** belt in the southern market is generally a little higher." ”
Thanks to a low enough **, Tianlala covers consumers of multiple ages, and its stores are widely opened near primary schools, middle schools and communities, and the strategy of intensive store opening has increased the volume and sales, making Tianlala a leader in the northern sinking market.
In 2015, when we started our directly operated store, we opened a second store less than 100 meters away from the first store, and then a third store nearby. ”
Xu Zhou mentioned that the sinking market can carry about 40,000 affordable tea shops. "There are nearly 20,000 towns and more than 1,000 townships in China, and nearly 20,000 tea shops can be opened if half of them are removed; If you add county seats, prefecture-level cities, etc., the market capacity of new tea drinks is very huge. ”
Wang Yunan, the founder of Gu Ming, also said, "The base of the third and fourth tier cities is too large, and it can fully accommodate 20 brands like Gu Ming."
With the intensification of competition, it is imminent to find the next increment**, and the northern market, which was neglected in the past, has begun to be intensively entered by the head brands because the competition saturation is lower than that of the south.
At the beginning of 2023, Gu Ming put forward the goal of adding 3,000 new stores, and focused on expanding the four provinces of Shandong, Guangxi, Guizhou and Anhui, and Shandong became the first stop of Gu Ming to go north.
After a year of deep cultivation, as of press time, the data of Narrow Door Dining Eye shows that the number of stores of Gu Ming in Shandong has reached 322, and the number of stores in Henan has also reached 256.
Bawang Tea Ji also started the process of going north, and successively entered Hebei, Shandong, Shaanxi and other provinces, and in August, the 2000th store of Bawang Tea Ji opened in Beijing, and achieved a good result of many consecutive days. According to the data of the narrow door restaurant, Bawang Chaji currently has a layout in 31 provinces across the country.
Even lemon tea, which was once not favored, has taken root in the north. The lemon season has covered Shandong, Henan, and Shaanxi provinces, and Linlee has sold lemon tea to the far northeast.
There may be many inconveniences in the north, such as the construction of the first chain, the prosperity of the business district, the climatic conditions, etc., but we must not ignore the hidden consumption strength of the north.
Before we went to the Northeast, we thought that the consumption power of the Northeast was not enough, but after the field investigation, we found that the Northeast people also have the habit of drinking ice drinks in winter, and their demand for milk tea is very high. Xu Zhou said.
According to the official data released by Tianlala, during the Spring Festival in 2024, the sales volume of Tianlala's stores nationwide will increase by 400% year-on-year and 135% month-on-month, of which the sales volume of stores in the three eastern provinces will increase by more than 800% year-on-year.
Photo source: Sweet Lala).
Dun Xian, the person in charge of the ancient tea market, also said that the ** belt of local tea brands in Shandong is not cheaper than that in the south, even in some counties, ** single products around 16-18 yuan are also very common. "The liveliness of the sinking market in the north is unimaginable. ”
At the same time, the rapid development of local new tea drinks in the north in the past two years also proves the consumption potential of the north.
Shandong's Ashui Big Cup Tea has opened nearly 1,500 stores; Shaanxi's tea talk lane has quadrupled its stores in one year, and its revenue is approaching 1 billion. While waiting for the new tea drinks from the south to go north, they also took the initiative to go out of the region and took the first step towards nationalization.
Whether it is from south to north, from north to south, it is a strategic judgment based on its own advantages and disadvantages, and in essence, it still serves the goal of nationalization, and the arrival of the stock era undoubtedly puts the vision of nationalization of each brand on the agenda earlier.
Before the end of the New Year, Tea Baidao and Shuyi Burning Fairy Grass have launched the "0 franchise fee" plan, and Nova Coffee next door has also launched the "Thousand Stores Strategy", announcing that it will take out 50 million yuan to subsidize entrepreneurs.
Behind the big spending is to grab people, grab points, and grab the market.
Xu Xin of Today's Capital once put forward a classic statement: "When you drink coffee, you think of Starbucks and Luckin, not because their coffee is the best, but because they are everywhere." ”
The format with offline stores as the core is destined to prevent the new tea drink from falling into "unlimited competition", and the current new tea drink industry has entered the stage of closing the field and hunting, and the scale is the most solid safety card for the brand.
However, unlike the competition of "you without me" in the Internet era, the new tea beverage track will not become a situation where there are only a few left, because consumers' demand for tea drinks is still diversified in taste and elements.
Innovation and change are still the underlying logic of the industry.