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Text |Mu Sheng.In 2023, the wind of the economic winter will blow to all walks of life. In the face of the business crisis, they regard layoffs and business cuts as the primary measure to reduce costs. What's more, under the banner of "reducing costs and increasing efficiency", the fundamental reason for the blanket layoffs is that there is no efficiency data to support it.
In order to respond to the demand of a large number of enterprises for the human efficiency data of the industry, Musheng Consulting selected the top ten industries with the highest current popularity, combined with the original party**, took the head listed companies in various industries as research samples, and used the original indicators and algorithms of Musheng Consulting to analyze the human efficiency data and financial efficiency data of these samples, revealing a number of new trends in human resources. For those companies and HR in the industry who "look up and see the road", the value of this data is self-evident.
As a strategic emerging industry that is a key development of the country, the environmental protection industry plays an increasingly important role in the national economy, and the development momentum continues to improve. According to the data of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the operating income of China's environmental protection industry in 2022 will be about 222 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 18%。Compared with the data of previous years, the operating income of the environmental protection industry has increased for three consecutive years. It is generally believed that the environmental protection industry is a capital-intensive industry, with a relatively long return on investment period, low charging standards, and obvious scale effects. However, for the top sample enterprises, is it true that the larger the enterprise, the higher the human efficiency?
Figure 1: Revenue scale of the environmental protection industry - per capita revenue chart Data**: Musheng Consulting, "2023 China Enterprise Human Efficiency Research Report (Environmental Protection Industry)".
Among the companies surveyed, we divided the revenue per capita into four ranges. The per capita revenue of enterprises with a revenue scale of more than 10 billion yuan is concentrated in the low efficiency range of (0, 1 million yuan); The per capita revenue of enterprises with a revenue scale of [5 billion yuan, 10 billion yuan) is at a medium level; The human efficiency of enterprises with a revenue scale of less than 5 billion is at the middle and lower level. On the whole, in the environmental protection industry, there is no inevitable relationship between the scale of enterprise revenue and the excellent performance of per capita revenue.
In other words, enterprises with large revenue scale do not necessarily have high human efficiency, and the expansion of scale will drag down the enterprise and reduce the human efficiency of the enterprise. The scale of enterprises in the environmental protection industry is generally not large, and most of the environmental protection enterprises maintain a small and lean state, although the scale is not large, the number of people is not large, but the enterprises also avoid all kinds of inefficient waste and manual redundancy, which is also one of the main reasons why the efficiency of environmental protection enterprises is not bad. The number of employees in a company should match its own operating conditions, and if the company maintains a good revenue scale and headcount, then the company's human efficiency will reach the highest value.
In the public's impression, the Internet industry is generally regarded as a "cash-burning" industry, and they are expanding strongly with large investments, which is likely to lead to their human efficiency (per capita net profit) level not being too high.
But is that really the case? What is the profitability of the Internet "big manufacturers"?
Figure 2: Internet Industry Top Leading Index Source**: Musheng Consulting, "2023 China Enterprise Human Efficiency Research Report (Internet Industry)".
In the research report, we took the minimum and maximum values of the sample human efficiency as the lower and upper limits of the interval, divided them into five intervals on average, and delineated the "three lines of human efficiency" on this basis
Excellent line——Take the lower limit of the highest range as the excellent line of human efficiency, that is, the human efficiency that achieves this level can be regarded as excellent. Qualified line——Take the average value of all samples as the qualified line of human efficiency, that is, the general level performance of the industry, which represents the human efficiency level of the enterprise. Competitive standard line——Take the median of the relatively concentrated area of the sample as the standard line of human efficiency competition, that is, only when this level is reached, can it be regarded as having basic competitiveness in the industry and can ensure basic survival. On this basis, in order to analyze the performance of the top samples in the sample, we define the industry head leading index, that is, the industry head leading index = excellent line competition standard line, which is a "structural" indicator, the larger the value of the indicator, the more representative the head of the industry rushes to the front.
It can be seen from the head leading index of the Internet industry that the industry head leading index of per capita net profit of the industry is the highest, which is higher than the other three indicators. The rest are per capita revenue, labor cost production ratio and labor cost return rate.
This shows that the leading enterprises in the industry are far ahead in per capita net profit, which is the human efficiency indicator with the greatest static advantage for them. In recent years, the organizational problems of Internet companies have become more and more obvious, and they have begun to take measures such as layoffs, downsizing, and cutting institutions, strictly controlling the investment of resources, and attaching great importance to profitability. Judging from the results, the head enterprises moved earlier and acted greater, and have formed an obvious magnitude advantage.
In 2023, with the passing of the epidemic, the retail industry will also usher in a recovery, the business model of the retail industry will be stable, and the steady improvement of human efficiency seems inevitable. So, what are the human efficiency metrics that the retail industry should focus on in this recovery period? Which human efficiency indicator can be different and far ahead?
Figure 3: Retail Industry Competition Level Index Source**: Musheng Consulting, "2023 China Enterprise Human Efficiency Research Report (Retail Industry)".
On the basis of the "three lines of human efficiency" above, in order to study the overall level of the industry, we define the industry competition level index, namelyIndustry competition level index = competition standard line qualified line. The higher the value of this index, the higher the overall level of the industry.
In the retail industry, the industry competition level index of labor cost production ratio is the highest, the industry competition level index of per capita revenue and labor cost return rate is the same, and the industry competition level index of per capita net profit is the smallest.
The data shows that the retail industry is best at converting the input of labor costs into revenue, but it is not good at converting the investment in the number of employees into net profit. This also shows that the retail industry has a lot of room for the control of the number of people invested.
As a traditional industry in the economic winter, the pursuit of profitability is the most important, and the per capita net profit of the sample enterprises has the worst performance. This shows that at this stage, the profitability of retail enterprises is generally average, and the workforce is relatively bloated, which is obviously not right. To put it bluntly, retail companies have a large workforce in order to support the scale of revenue, but most people will not be responsible for profits.
Therefore, if a retail enterprise makes achievements in the indicator of per capita net profit, it will soon "rush out". Therefore, for the retail industry, the per capita net profit indicator is the key to widening the competitive gap.
China's real estate market has experienced rapid development, but with the continuous accumulation of the stock scale of the real estate industry, the market dividend has gradually disappeared. After the epidemic and its subsequent impact, the real estate industry has entered a stage of overall adjustment. At the same time, a considerable number of real estate companies have seen their profitability decline, their assets shrinking, and their debt ratios rising, and they have taken "surviving" as their top priority. Large-scale real estate enterprises have also entered the stage of shrinking their balance sheets and clearing their balance sheets and survival of the fittest, and the challenges are increasing. So at this stage, is the "offensive and defensive" strategy of the leading real estate companies open source or throttle?
Figure 4: Top Growth Index of the Real Estate Industry Source**: Musheng Consulting, "2023 China Enterprise Human Efficiency Research Report (Real Estate Industry)".
In the research report, we conducted a dynamic analysis of the data of the industry as a whole and various indicators in the past 5 years, found out the samples with a compound growth rate higher than the overall compound growth rate of the industry, and divided them into three categories according to the degree of change: obvious growth, obvious growth and no obvious growth (note: the sales and management expense rate is a negative index, so the names of these three categories are different).
in dynamic analysisIndustry head growth index = (higher than the industry compound growth rate obvious proportion + higher than the industry compound growth rate more obvious proportion) higher than the industry compound growth rate is not obvious proportion. The higher the value of this index, the more it indicates that the leading companies are leading strongly.
The data shows that in the real estate industry, the industry head growth index with a compound growth rate of sales and management expense ratio is higher, indicating that the head real estate enterprises are strongly leading the sales and management expense rate index. In the past, real estate enterprises have achieved rapid development with the help of their own capital, resources, policies and other advantages. However, when the industry encounters a harsh winter, the contraction of the head real estate enterprises is obviously faster, and they pay more attention to cost control, especially in the strong control of sales and management costs, and actively achieve "throttling".
However, the industry head growth index of the real estate industry's return on investment (ROI) compound growth rate is low, indicating that there are no large number of head forces emerging on the index. Under the unfavorable factors of the external economic environment, although the leading real estate companies have strong control over costs, their huge volume and sluggish income make their ROI performance relatively mediocre. In this case, the pressure on the leading real estate companies is even greater.
As of January 31, 2024, 54 of the 87 A-share real estate companies have released their 2023 performance forecasts, of which only 6 are expected to achieve positive net profit growth for the whole year; Although 8 real estate companies are profitable, they all have a decline of more than 50%; The performance of 49 real estate companies decreased year-on-year, of which 34 had a net profit pre-loss, with a total pre-loss of about 48.6 billion to 73 billion yuan; Only 8 real estate companies have turned net profits into profits.
According to the data, Poly Development's annual revenue in 2023 will be 3471500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2349%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1203.7 billion yuan, down 3442%；Greenland Holdings is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of -9 billion to -7 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 99109% to 79307%；Shimao shares are expected to have a loss in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2023, which is -501 billion to -334 billion yuan; Vanke achieved revenue of 2903 in the first three quarters of 20230.8 billion yuan, down 1403%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1362.1 billion yuan, down 2031%。All this fully shows that the profitability of the real estate industry is declining sharply. In the real estate industry, if even the life of the head real estate company is not good, the life of other companies will not be so good, which also shows that the entire industry is clearing rapidly. In the downward market of real estate, controlling costs seems to be the key to "surviving the winter" of enterprises.
In 2024, human efficiency management will be a map for all enterprises to survive the winter, and the industry human efficiency research report, which contains a large amount of precious data, will make this map more three-dimensional and help enterprises find a way to improve quality and efficiency.