1. When you own a coin, you have both sides of the coin, whether you like it or not.
2. The property market has experienced a crazy leverage cycle that began in 2015, and it will inevitably go through a deleveraging cycle. Regardless of whether there is regulation or not, the deleveraging cycle will come, because it is impossible to increase leverage indefinitely, and that will blow up.
3, the real estate market has experienced the beginning of 2014 to accelerate the sale of land, enterprises desperately to inventory stage, a few years to sell the past 20 years to sell the house, which means that the inventory from the hands of the land, the project in the hands of the enterprise into the hands of the individual, especially a lot of people who do not lack a house to buy a lot of houses that are not needed at all, it is inevitable to go through the second inventory, that is, to go through the stage of personal inventory. At present, the number of second-hand housing listings is increasing. In fact, it has little to do with regulation, because the relationship between supply and demand will affect the market, but too many people only focus on new houses and ignore the supply and demand relationship in the second-hand market.
4. The property market has also experienced the process of expanding the balance sheet of home buyers' families, and the current debt of Chinese families often exceeds 60%, which is at a historical high, and there are very few people who have the ability, willingness and need to expand their debts. It will inevitably take time to repair the balance sheet now. Especially when the general environment itself is unstable, the more residents are indebted, the greater the hidden dangers.
5. Therefore, investment has always been the same source of profit and loss, and it is impossible to only enjoy the good side and ignore the bad side. There have always been two sides to a coin.
6. At present, the biggest double standard for many people is that they are shouting about the market economy every day, but they are looking forward to the country's rescue every day, and they put all the responsibility on the country, and they have no problems. There is no absolute market economy in this world, and there is no country in the world. The visible hand and the invisible hand have been arguing for so many years, from the beginning of the salt and iron theory, to Keynes Hayek, is there an answer? No.
7. The fun of economics is here, even if both sides have opposite views, they can both win the Nobel Prize. Because economics is not a science, there are no answers. The same trick will have completely different effects in different places, at different stages, and on different people.
8. There is no absolute medicine in the market, and there is no one in the whole world, otherwise why would those god-like countries that were once in our hearts, those countries that were portrayed as heaven-like by the public know now fall to the altar? No one is a god, everyone is groping, optimizing, and moving forward. If governing a city or an industry is like many people say, ** ignore it, let the market run rampant, everything will be fine, this is too simple, and it is too optimistic about human nature.
9. Many people may forget how much corruption there was in those years when the lottery was not needed? How many black box operations? How many dealer intermediaries are selling numbers to rip off customers? And how many ordinary home buyers don't even have the opportunity to enter the door of the sales office? Do the houses on both sides of the river that can be bought and made money, and the restricted houses that are specially reserved in the red plate, have anything to do with the vast majority of people?
10, Mr. Lu Xun has long said that he is not afraid to speculate on human nature with the worst malice. In the face of huge interests, the abyss of human nature is far away, and the space for rent-seeking is amazing.
11. Many questions that many people talk about have answers in books, and the biggest problem for too many people is not reading.
12. The property market needs time to repair. At this repair stage, if you invest, except for a few high-quality plates, reasonably adjust the chips in your hand, and have the opportunity to sell low and buy low to achieve high-quality replacement. If you live in your own home, then buy only the good ones and buy the best that you can reach, because it will stay with you and your family for a long time. Don't trust anyone, including me, just really good houses.
13. If you make a more detailed suggestion, it is to seize the small nodes of each policy benefit, and do not have any hesitation. The property market has entered a new normal, and there will be no more big cycles, and there will be just fleeting small opportunities.
14. Of course, opportunities are never distributed on a head-to-head basis. The lucky future belongs to and only to a few. The era of profit in the property market for the vast majority of people has come to an end. Many people are not sure whether they can win back the losses of the previous two years, let alone profits.
15, because, except for a few projects, the starting threshold for new houses in the Hangzhou property market that really has the opportunity to make money is basically more than 6 million, and the basic threshold for a better location is more than 800 or even 9 million.
16. A large number of houses of two or three million, three or five million, facing the biggest competition not only from second-hand neighbors, but also from land that is constantly being sold. Under the double kill of day delivery + continuous land supply, some plates will be shuffled. On the contrary, the land in the core area of the city is getting less and less, and many sectors are almost in a stage where there are no houses for sale, which directly gives a good opportunity for second-hand housing shipments, and even policies will favor the rich, such as Hangzhou Liutiao in October last year.
17. The property market needs rigid demand, and the main force of the property market is also rigid demand, but the dividends of the property market will no longer be distributed to ordinary rigid needs.
18. This miraculous phenomenon leads to the fact that the more people who lack a house, the more desperately they are buying a house, and the more people who lack a house, the more they don't want to buy a house. Perhaps, what is needed now is not a simple bailout or a thrill, but a game-changer.
19, again, what you see is the house, and what I see is human nature. Everyone is profit-seeking, and if the rules can take advantage of human nature, they may be able to achieve the desired effect.
20, Recently, I didn't take any medicine, and I was lazy for a few days without updating. The New Year is approaching, and I hope everyone will protect themselves and welcome the New Year in a healthy and safe manner. That's all there is to it, thank you for reading it.