A few days ago, I read the news that on November 28, the central bank said at a joint meeting of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank for International Settlements: ".China's real estate is nearing bottoming, with both market sentiment and ** showing signs of normalization
I thought that this was another "booster" for the real estate market by the powerful department, but in the end, I took a closer look at the news and realized that this passage was just a quote from a recent report by S&P in the United States.
The scriptures of foreign monks still have some reference value.
The main thing is a flexibility.
If the S&P report says,".China's real estate is far from bottoming out, the debt problem of real estate companies is still here, defaults may be inevitable, and the housing bubble in first- and second-tier cities will burst in the coming months
Then I'm afraid our side won't quote it, and some ** may have to say something".Overseas financial forces are maliciously shorting our Tianzi No. 1 industry again
But now S&P is saying: ".China's real estate has bottomed outA monk from outside recited a sutra that we need to hear the most at the moment, and of course it can be quoted.
But our flexibility doesn't stop there, as one paragraph in the original news article says.
Pan Gongsheng (Governor) stressed that the above measures have gradually shown their effects, and China's real estate industry is entering a new equilibrium. He quoted a report from Standard & Poor's as saying that market sentiment and ** in China's real estate market are beginning to show signs of normalization and are close to bottoming. After speaking, he also paused deliberately and said jokingly: ".That's their point of view"That's their point of viewIt's quite flexible.,It's like saying everything.,And it's as if there's nothing to say.,This operation reminds me of what Station B Guo inherited Master said about Rulai.。
If it comes, if it comes?If so, is he really here?Did you come or not?
Flexibility is not an issueAfter all, there is no such thing as a completely free market, and appropriate "intervention" such as blowing the wind and beating the side drum is still possibleBut the reality is that blowing may not solve too many problems by now.
In the past 11 months, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 495 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 144 percent, compared to 6 in the same period last year73 trillion.
Of course, pigs are not qualified to laugh at crows and black, and the sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to November last year, 2022, were also significantly lower than in 2021 by 421%。
From 2021 to 2022 to 2023, the sales of new homes of real estate companies are like cars that have lost their braking function, sliding faster and faster on a downhill road with no end in sight.
In 3 years, the speed has never slowed down.
As soon as the speed of new housing is cold, the local auction market has to sneeze, and real estate companies cannot quickly and recoup a large amount of funds through the sale of new houses, and the local auction market will naturally have to be weak.
It's very simple, real estate companies have no money to follow the local "elements".
In the past 11 months, nearly half of the real estate companies have not taken a piece of land, and those who can get land are either central enterprises or state-owned enterprises, and there are a large number of local urban investment that only takes land but does not build.
Left hand to right hand, the local auction market, which used to be a day by day, has now become a slightly embarrassing platform for swiping orders.
In fact, merchants can't make much money by swiping orders, in order to support a sales scene and seduce subsequent real buyers to place orders, and the same is true for local auction income.
Counting on the urban investment and state-owned enterprises to support the value of the land market, looking forward to the private real estate enterprises to take a breath and then enter the real gold ** to spend money, but it is a pity that after waiting for more than a year, the daylily is cold, and the figure of the large army of private enterprises is still not looking forward to coming.
The reason why private real estate companies do not come is not complicated, that is, there is no money.
Being discriminated against in the financing market and not being able to borrow money;In the new housing market, individuals insist on holding on to the currency and not buying houses, and they can't make money.
According to the data released by the Ministry of Finance a few days ago, the balance of local bonds in the country has exceeded 40 trillion yuan, and this does not include hidden debts, such as local platform bonds.
The pressure is not ordinarily small.
There's a lot of pressure below, and you can't sit idly by from above,"Whose child is who holds"After all, it's just a scene, and the issuance of the 1 trillion special treasury bonds a while ago is not just to reduce the debt pressure on the local government.
Therefore, it is understandable to blow a warm wind on real estate, which is not only the main channel for monetary investment, but also the magic medicine for reducing pressure on local debt, and the ballast stone for the stability of the financial system.
Blow, of course.
But it is understandable that the central bank comes out to blow the warm wind, and it is a bit interesting for some real estate companies to come out and blow it themselves.
In June 2022, Yu Liang of Vanke jumped out and said, "In the short term, the property market has bottomed out, and the future will be very violent."
How do you say that? A seller of apples, no matter how honest he is, will not tell you that apples are already unsalable, and it is likely to remain for a long time.
It's not about morality, it's about position.
If the market is really as Yu Liang said, then why hasn't Vanke accelerated the pace of land hoarding for more than a year?Why don't you see Vanke's merger and acquisition of real estate companies that are out of risk but still have high-quality assets in their hands?
One set of mouth, another set of body, somewhat contradictory.
It is the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development that loosens the property market policy, and the central bank is busy emphasizing the blood transfusion financing for real estate enterprises, and the property market, the primary industry, has received special treatment that no industry has ever received since the founding of the People's Republic of China.
However, all this is just the throes of the transformation of the economic structure.
During the period from 1993 to 2008, we were still the standard export-oriented economic structure.
The country only provides a large amount of cheap labor and a stable production environment to be responsible for processing, and raw materials and sales are two ends of the world, so there is no basis for local government debt to climb at this time.
This high-density asset-light (relative to real estate and infrastructure) foreign trade processing model has rapidly stimulated economic growth, and also allowed the income of the individuals involved in it to get a faster rate**.
In particular, the accession to the WTO in 2001 allowed China to smoothly enter the track of the wave of globalization, and let the already obvious excess production capacity be released to the greatest extent.
The world's factory was officially opened.
However, it could not stand the outbreak of the productive forces of this hard-working and industrious nation that was free from the shackles of the planned economy, and soon there were signs of excess production capacity again, and with the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the purchasing power of Western countries began to decline, and the economic structure faced another choice.
Continue to be outward-looking or turn inward?
Later it turned out that we chose to turn inwardAfter 2008, the export-oriented economic structure began to rapidly transform into an inward-oriented (mainly), and investment in infrastructure and fixed assets became the main way to drive economic growth.
When a large amount of infrastructure makes the urban skeleton larger, it also improves public facilities and rapidly increases the value of land.
The real estate market relied on the loose monetary policy of the central bank after the four trillion yuan, and used a large amount of cheap funds to expand in the staking style at the same time, and once again pushed up the land price that has been raised by the infrastructure, thus allowing the property market to enter a high-speed upward channel.
First infrastructure and then real estate, land value, driven by the twin engines of infrastructure and property market, has become the best credit collateral for local borrowing.
Then there is the land-anchored debt development model that has been used to this day
A large amount of debt has appeared in large and small cities with the continuous emergence of fixed asset investment, in the history of economic development in the past ten years.
Like an inescapable fate, the surplus reappears.
Under the influence of the big work and the aftermath of the GDP championship, duplicate construction, overcapacity, blind expansion, fixed asset investment began to tend to be saturated, and the economic utility driven by it has been declining.
Industrial parks with various names, xx towns with various themes, and various infrastructure facilities that are a little too perfect.
All of this is driving the momentum of economic growth to decline, while the accumulation of debt is continuous.
In the context of the final repayment direction of a considerable part of the debt, the pressure has come to the head of real estate.
But the problem is that since 2008, real estate has been developing at a super high speed for more than ten years like a wild horse, and it has not only borne a huge amount of debt, but also the individual debt space for the sustainable development of the property market has been squeezed out.
In 2007, the leverage ratio of the residential sector was only 188%, and by the end of 2020 it had increased to 623%, a significant increase of 43 in 12 years5%。
A considerable part of the reason why new home sales are declining is this, and individuals dare not go into debt if they can't borrow money.
There is no choice but to continue to repay debts with debts.
According to the data of the Ministry of Finance in January 2023, the principal of local ** bonds was repaid at maturity last year 2,775.8 billion yuan, of which 2,391 billion yuan was repaid by issuing refinancing bonds and 384.8 billion yuan was repaid by arranging financial funds.
That is to say,Eighty-six per cent of the principal amount of debt repayment was obtained by borrowing new money to repay the old one.
And that's why I said in a previous article that real estate is the key to rolling debt.
Even if most of them can borrow new to repay the old, the remaining small part of the debt that must be repaid is the same as the interest, and the interest paid on local bonds last year alone has broken through the 1 trillion mark for the first time, reaching 121 trillion.
The pressure of debt is increasing.
When we chose to change the economic structure and use debt-driven economic growth in exchange for a period of more than 10 years of high-speed economic growth, we were destined to have the consciousness of repaying debts.
Now the painful period of real estate "temporarily" with no end in sight is the most direct way to repay debts.
Local debts, real estate enterprise debts, individual debts, and real estate-related debts are all related to debts.
Debt makes the local government dare not relax on the new housing, debt makes real estate companies on the verge of default, and debt also makes individuals push the time to enter the market again and again.
However, warriors are always available, even in the current situation of the property market, some people will still ask what should be paid attention to when buying a house and investing now.
Thinking about this question from another angle, I think there are countless other individuals who are similar to the person who asked the question.
Do you think you are playing with real estate companies, with the owners of second-hand houses who have a big appetite and do not reduce prices, and you are playing with the so-called ** and mysterious real estate speculation group.
No, you're just playing the debt game of the young people of the future who are in the same class as you.
No one will inexplicably look forward to the good life of others, but in the real estate market, those who have already entered the market, especially those with investment thoughts, more or less really have this alternative "good thought".
If that group of young people can't bear debts in the future, then your plate will really be solid.