Powell's speech and data both frustrated expectations of interest rate cuts, and U.S. stocks and bonds were killed。The three major U.S. stock indexes stopped two consecutive gains, and the S&P Dow fell from historical highs; McDonald's closed down nearly 4% after the earnings report, leading the decline in Dow components; Apple closed up nearly 1% after the Vision Pro went on saleTesla fell nearly 7% at one point；The chip stock index rose more than 1% against the market and rose three times in a rowNvidiaIt closed up nearly 5%.It hit a record high for three consecutive days；Estee Lauder rose 12% after announcing layoff plans; After the earnings report, AI concept stock Palantir rose more than 10% after hours. The pan-European stock index fell to a more than one-week low, with Novo Nordisk rising 36% is an all-time high.
U.S. Treasury yieldsIntraday for two consecutive daysMore than 10 basis points, the two-year yield hit a one-month high. The U.S. dollar index hit a new high in nearly three months, the euro hit a new low in nearly three months, and the yen hit a new low in two months.
* Stopped three consecutive declines, walked out of a three-week low, and rose more than 1% intraday. * It fell to a one-week low for two consecutive days, falling more than 1% intraday. Lunxi fell nearly 3%, and Luntong and Lunzinc fell for four consecutive years.
In the Chinese market, the A-share "Shenzhen V" ** ChiNext index rose 079%, CATL and other heavyweight stocks strengthened across the board. During the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index**, Alibaba rose nearly 4%, JD.com rose nearly 3%, Xpeng Motors fell nearly 4%, and NIO fell 3%. The offshore yuan fell more than 100 points intraday and fell to 722, a new low in more than two weeks.
Securities and Futures CommissionStrictly punish the manipulation of the market and malicious shorting, and earnestly maintain the stable operation of the market；Since the beginning of this year, the amount of ** pledge default liquidation is 27.4 million yuan, accounting for a small proportion of market turnover, and the total liquidation of the whole market since January is about 900 million yuanThe overall risk is controllableWe will closely monitor and take effective measures to prevent the risk of pledgeU.S. stocks: Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ.ChinaCaixin Services PMI in JanuaryMonth-on-month, it fell slightly to 527, forThe second highest in the past six months
Federal ReserveChairman Powellsaid that it would cut interest rates cautiously, and still expected three rate cuts this year, lower than market expectations; Treasury yields rose more than 10 basis points；Most Feds agree that a rate cut in March may be slim, and there are also those who openly contradict it.
United StatesThe ISM services sector unexpectedly rose to a four-month high in January, prices and employment indices soared, and new orders also picked up.
NvidiaWon a sky-high order of 500 million US dollars, and Yotta, an Indian data center, bought 16,000 H100 GH200 in one go; Goldman Sachs raised the target price of Nvidia and is expected to rise by more than 20%, and Nvidia closed up nearly 5%, hitting a record high for three consecutive days.
TeslaIt was removed from the ** list by the German enterprise software giant SAPIt fell 7% at one point during the session, down 30% during the year.
European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed down 005%。Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 008%。France's CAC 40 index closed down 003%。Britain's FTSE 100 index closed down 004%。
A shares: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 270218 points, down 102%。The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 796471 points, down 113%。The GEM index closed at 156261 points, up 079%。
Bond market: By the end of the bond market, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond; Two-year Treasury yields;
commodity: WTI closed up 0 in March$50, up 069% to 72$78 barrel. Brent closed up 0 in April$66, up 085% at 77$99 barrel. COMEX closed down nearly 053% at 2042$9 oz. Lunxi closed down nearly 28%, London copper, London zinc, London lead, London nickel fell more than 1%.
Domestic macro
China Securities Regulatory Commission: Severely punish the manipulation of the market and malicious shorting, and effectively maintain the stable operation of the market. The spokesman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission answered reporters' questions on the relevant situation of the first pledge and the "two financing" financing business. The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Public Security carried out joint research and judgment and found a number of cases suspected of manipulating the market and maliciously shorting. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will maintain a high-pressure posture of "zero tolerance", resolutely crack down, and let those who dare to manipulate illegally and maliciously short sellers "go bankrupt and sit in prison". In this warning, don't defy the law and take chestnuts from the fire. A spokesman for the Securities and Futures Commission saidSince the beginning of this year, the amount of ** pledge default liquidation has been 27.4 million yuan, accounting for a small proportion of the market turnoverSince JanuaryFullThe market has been closed cumulativelyAmountAbout 900 million yuan, accounting for 6/10,000 of the financing scaleThe overall risk is controllable。Up to now, the average maintenance margin ratio of the whole market is 226%, which is lower than the beginning of the year, and the minimum maintenance guarantee ratio (liquidation line) is usually 130%. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will closely monitor and take effective measures to prevent the risk of pledge。Huaxi ** issued an announcement to maintain the minimum line of margin financing and securities lending business at 110% of the lowest level in the industry. China's Caixin services PMI edged down to 52 in January7, 0. lower than in December2 percentage points, the second highest in the past six months, indicating that the growth momentum of the service industry in the first month of 2024 is still strong. Access Department of the State Administration of Financial Supervision: Resolutely take high-quality access work to ensure the first pass for the construction of a financial power.
Chinese citizens can apply for a 10-year multiple-entry business, tourist and family visit visa in Brazil from February 19. Li Bei "admitted his mistake" to reduce his position, admitting that he had made the mistake of "quick victory". Banxia Investment realized its error in judgment after the start of 2024, and significantly reduced its position in equity assets in mid-January. Previously, Li Bei said in a high-profile manner that she had increased her position**, and predicted that the future would be a once-in-five-year or once-in-twenty-year opportunity. Domestic companies
Hong Kong's largest AI fraud case: Deepfake face swap "UK CFO", directly defrauding the company of 200 million Hong Kong dollars. In the past, AI face-swapping scams were generally one-on-one. This time, in the form of a meeting, a team of executives was faked, which greatly increased the credibility. Overseas macro
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would cut interest rates cautiously and still expects three rate cuts this year, lower than market expectations Powell said he hopes to have greater confidence in inflation falling to 2%.Such confidence is unlikely to be reached at the March meeting；will not wait for inflation to reach 2% before cutting interest rates, in fact it is now actively considering future rate cuts; In the long term, the U.S. federal ** is on an unsustainable fiscal path. On the first trading day after Powell's speech, U.S. Treasury yields of all maturities generally rose by more than 10 basis points on Monday. The "New Fed News Agency" believes that "when to cut interest rates" has become the current focus of the Fed, and Powell emphasized two points in this regard:1.will not wait for inflation to reach 2% before cutting interest rates; 2.Hopefully, there will be more confidence that inflation will come down to 2%.。The Fed's interest rate cut in March may be slim, most of them agree, and some openly contradict it. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee Powell said he did not want to rule out a rate cut in March, but needed to see more data showing progress in the fight against high inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the Fed had time to assess economic data before cutting rates, arguing that the current interest rate policy may not be as tight as expected and that the neutral rate may have risen. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that the Fed's long-term response to the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen significantly. The ISM services sector hit a four-month high in January, with prices and employment indices soaring and new orders picking up. The ISM services index in the United States rose to 53 in January4, a four-month high, expected 52. New orders and price indices hit nearly one-year highs. The price index jumped 73 points, the largest increase since 2012, reaching 64. The employment index was sharply **6 in a single month7 points, back to 505 expansion areas. Exports of services are strong. "Beef inflation" is coming, with U.S. beef retail prices hitting record highs and cattle herds hitting a 73-year low. Analysts point out that the adverse effects of drought on beef could continue until 2026. Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 U.S. GDP forecast to 24%。This is well above the consensus expectation of 1% and the Fed's FOMC** of 14%。Eurozone PPI fell 10% year-on-year in December6%, for the eighth consecutive month**. Eurozone December PPI YoY** was mainly due to a 27% YoY drop in energy***5%。Da Mo: The Bank of Japan is turning close at hand, ending the YCC in March and raising interest rates in July. At present, economists generally believe that the Bank of Japan will wait until April to end negative interest rates and cancel YCC, but Da Mo bluntly said that the main companies will announce the results of the "spring fight" before the March interest rate meeting, and the Bank of Japan has every reason to pivot in March. UBS: The Fed's rate cut will stimulus ** rise to $2,200. UBS noted that it is expected to reach $2,200 an ounce by the end of 2024, while silver prices could rise more. Overseas companies
Goldman Sachs: What supports the valuation of the "Big Seven" is performance, and revenue growth is the key. Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Stock Strategist D**id Kostin mentioned in the latest report that the fate of the "Big Seven"** depends on whether they achieve rapid revenue growth in 2024. So far, six of them have reported results for the fourth quarter of 2023, and all but Tesla have exceeded expectations. Nvidia won a sky-high order of $500 million, and Yotta, an Indian data center, bought 16,000 H100 GH200 in one go. YOTTA buys so many GPUs that will eventually be deployed in the AI data center in Gujarat International Fintech City, which will open in March this year. Goldman Sachs reported on Monday that it raised its price target on Nvidiato $800That's nearly 21% higher than Nvidia last Friday**, bullish on the quarterly results that will be announced this month. Tesla fell about 7% intraday at one point, and fell 30% this year. German enterprise software giant SAP has removed Tesla from its list of car manufacturers. Tesla's ** volatility and superimposed deliveries are the reasons for SAP's decision. Foreign media broke the news: Musk and Tesla directors take drugs, and some of them "don't want to lose their social capital". Tesla's independent directors generally have deep personal and financial ties to Musk and have profited enormously from this relationship, having cashed out more than 6$500 million. Boeing has another accident, new problems have been found with the 737 MAX fuselage, and 50 undelivered aircraft will be forced to be reworked, potentially further slowing deliveries that have been delayed due to regulatory investigations. Boeing shares traded more than 2% on Monday. 1、Medicines|Novo Nordisk's majority shareholder, Novo Holdings, announced that it will acquire Catalent, a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical contract manufacturer, in an all-cash transaction. As part of the deal, Novo Nordisk will acquire Catalent's three bottling plants from Novo Holdings for an upfront payment of US$11 billion. Novo Nordisk's CEO said the new facility "will enable us to serve more people with diabetes and obesity in the future".
Comments: Founder ** believes that the weight loss market is expanding rapidly, and semaglutide is expected to further open up the global market. We continue to be optimistic about the potential application of GLP-1** in health issues, and the domestic industrial chain will further increase rapidly in the future. In terms of generic drugs, Huadong Medicine, Livzon Group, and Zhifei Biotechnology are all in the clinical trial stage. In terms of APIs and CDMO, there are also domestic companies that have laid out related businesses.
Foldable screen|According to a report by Science and Technology, Huawei is developing a new "three-fold screen mobile phone" and has begun to stock up on a large scale, which is expected to be available as soon as the second quarter of this year. Since the shaft is the most critical component of the folding machine, Huawei has expanded the material preparation order for the bearing manufacturer.
Comments: At present, the global penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones is less than 2%, according to Counterpoint**, it is expected that the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones is expected to exceed 100 million units in 2027, and the CAGR from 2023 to 2027 will be as high as 5284%。The important increment of the folding screen product chain comes from the hinge, cover plate and flexible panel, these three types of components account for a relatively high cost in the folding screen mobile phone, and the assembly, testing, manufacturing and other links related to the folding screen mobile phone screen are also expected to increase accordingly.
Low-orbit satellites|According to reports, recently, China has successfully launched two low-orbit test satellites equipped with China Mobile's spaceborne base station and core network equipment. The two satellites are the "China Mobile 01 Satellite" and the "Star Core" verification satellite, and the "China Mobile 01 Satellite" is equipped with a spaceborne base station that supports the 5G space-ground integrated evolution technology, and is the world's first on-board signal processing test satellite that can verify the 5G space-ground integrated evolution technology.
Comments: The satellite network based on the large-scale low-orbit constellation and the ground mobile system together form a space-ground integrated network, which can make up for the lack of ground mobile network coverage and provide satellite Internet services with higher bandwidth. With the continuous upgrading of satellite Internet technology and the continuous improvement of industry standards, the satellite Internet industry chain is ushering in an important period of development opportunities for "breaking the cocoon into a butterfly", and the market space of the whole industry may reach 100 billion yuan.
Pig farming|It is reported that rain and snow weather has a significant adverse impact on transportation and logistics. Supported by this factor, at the beginning of this month, pig prices soared, and pig prices in many places in East China rose into the "9 yuan era". Judging from the latest feedback today (February 5), the price of foreign ternary pigs rose to 1487 yuan kg, compared with the previous day** 052 yuan, in Shandong, Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places, pig prices in many places directly "took off", with an increase of more than 1 yuan per kilogram.
Comments: Due to the recent continuous and large-scale rain and snow weather in the central and eastern regions of China, this is the main area of pig sources transferred from other provinces, East China and Central China, the appropriate pig source is tight, and the local farmers are not smooth to slaughter, and the slaughterhouse is facing a severe "lack of pigs". At the same time, before the pig price fell sharply, which also caused the pig fattening to be profitable after a short period of profit again to face the pressure of loss, the social pig farm, farmers to sell the pig mentality weakened, the group pig enterprise card price mentality strengthened, in particular, the slaughterhouse procurement is more difficult, the pig price "pricing power" again to the breeding end of the tilt, in the group pig enterprises to pull up the support, pig prices show a trend beyond expectations.
Solar cells|According to reports, China has recently manufactured crystalline silicon heterojunction solar cells with high flexibility and high power-to-weight ratio for the first time in the world. Through the efforts of the research team, they developed wafers as thin as 50 microns, and developed new technologies and processes such as surface interface passivation and doped contact growth, so that the conversion efficiency of 57-125 micron thick cells reached a record-breaking 2606%-26.81%。
Comments: The researchers said that the crystalline silicon cells they developed are thinner than A4 paper, can be bent into a roll, and thinner than thin-film cells, and more efficient than traditional crystalline silicon cells. At present, new thin-film crystalline silicon cells have been manufactured and commercialized in related companies.
Australian monetary policy interest rate.
Cleveland Fed President Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Boston Fed President Collins delivered speeches.
The EIA publishes its monthly short-term energy outlook.
Eurozone retail sales for December.
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