Yesterday evening, ZJH said that the GU market has continued to fluctuate recently, and some lawbreakers have made illegal profits, and have jointly carried out joint research and judgment with the public security department to crack down on malicious market manipulation.
Moreover, he also talked about the method of operation, and there are institutions, gangs, and individuals, and it is necessary to join hands with relevant departments to start an inventory.
The last time this kind of strength was during the stock market crash in 15 years, when it was also a joint effort with relevant departments to hold lawbreakers accountable, maintain the market, and prohibit short-selling.
Credit
It is estimated that the RMB loans of financial institutions will increase by 4.48 trillion yuan in January, and the loan growth rate will be about 10.0%.2% (previous value 10.)6%）
From the demand side, the following changes in credit delivery in January appeared:
1) At the beginning of the year, residents' confidence in buying houses declined, and the pace of buying houses in the market slowed down.
According to the survey of the China Index Research Institute, the property market was in the off-season in January, the market continued to be sluggish, the number of projects opened by real estate companies decreased, and the willingness of residents to buy houses weakened, only 18% (the previous value was 21.).7% of households said their willingness to buy a home was stronger month-on-month. 9% (previous value 24.)3%) of residents plan to buy a house within six months. Overall, despite the intensive introduction of property market measures in various places, it will take time for the property market to recover.
2) Collateral Supplementary Loan (PSL) delivery did not exceed expectations.
In January, PSL invested a net of 150 billion yuan, and based on the investment in December, it completed the new quota of 500 billion yuan previously disclosed by the central bank. In view of the significant increase in the net investment of PSL in December and the promotion effect of the three major projects on the current economy, the market generally expects that PSL may continue to exert force.
Therefore, the scale of 150 billion in January is lower than the market's optimistic expectations, which is expected to be related to the central bank's smoothing of the credit rhythm throughout the year and seasonal factors. Looking ahead, the structural policy tools represented by the PSL are likely to continue to exert force, and the five major financial sectors and three major projects will become the main destination of credit delivery.
It is expected that 565 trillion, with a growth rate of 92% (previous value 9.)5%）
Since the fourth quarter of last year, affected by the afterburner and base effect of ** bond issuance, the growth rate of social finance has increased from 89% (July)** to 95% (December), a significant increase.
However, with the weakening of the base effect and the slowdown in the pace of bond issuance, the growth rate of social finance is expected to fall back to 9 in JanuaryAbout 2%.
M2 is expected to be up 9. YoY in January3%, the gap between M2 and M1 scissors converges, and monetary activity increases According to the M2 derivation pathway, M2 is expected to increase by about 68 trillion, corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 93%。
Among them, the real economy credit derived m2 is about 5 trillion yuan (including: new credit under the social financing caliber + loan write-off + depository financial institutions asset-backed **), and the net investment of financial factors m2 is about 18 trillion, and other factors (banks' self-operated purchases of corporate bonds, the central bank's foreign exchange appropriation, etc.) total derived m2 is about 100 billion.
To sum up, China Merchants ** believes that the market has lowered its expectations under the guidance of the monetary authorities in the early stage of bank credit as a "good start".
In January, the scale of new credit was lower than the same period last year, and it gradually became a consensus. On this basis, market attention has also shifted from aggregate to structure. Therefore, the release of financial data will produce two highlights:
The first is the gap between the amount of credit and the same period last year, and the second is whether there is a change in the structure of corporate loans.
For the market, due to the current convergence of credit expectations, the yield of the 10-bond briefly exceeded 24%。Be cautious about the current interpretation and the impact of policy exceeding expectations.
Antimony
According to datayes!According to the PRO indicator library, antimony metal (1)** has continued to strengthen recently, reaching a new high of more than 12 years as of 91,500 yuan tons as of 5** in February.
Overseas,According to China Securities Construction Investment, citing the British Metal Herald newsOn February 2, 2 antimony mb **13400-13700 US dollars metric tons (equivalent to about 96300-98500 yuan tons), the average price was higher than last week**15%。China Securities Construction Investment analysis said,From the perspective of the supply side, the overall operating level of antimony ingot manufacturers decreased this week. Mainly due to the restrictions on raw materials and logistics, some small and medium-sized enterprises in China have begun to suspend production and holiday this week, resulting in a significant decline in the overall operating level of the market. This week, the antimony oxide market has also shrunk. Under the influence of the weak shipping sentiment of antimony ingot enterprises, the market raw materials are still tight and the price is high, and the production willingness of manufacturers is not strong in the near future.
On the demand sideThis week, the downstream inquiry of antimony ingots has weakened significantly. The market demand is less, the downstream has not stockpiled much in the near future, some antimony oxide enterprises and first-class merchants have gradually begun to take holidays, and the overall market transaction performance is less. This week, the downstream enterprises of antimony oxide have generally been less willing to take orders when they have completed stocking, and the industry has maintained a cautious wait-and-see mentality, resulting in the overall purchase and sales of the market being weak and the actual transaction is not much.
China Securities Construction Investment believesThe scarcity of antimony is relatively high, the global antimony resource reserve-production ratio is only 16:1, and the global antimony ore production is declining year by year;
In 2024, the installed demand for photovoltaic capacity is expected to continue to increase, and the photovoltaic glass clarifier sodium pyroantimonate is expected to drive a significant increase in global antimony demand.
In terms of related companies, Guojin ** pointed out that in the case of antimony prices breaking a ten-year high and gradually approaching historical highs, targets with low valuations, high elasticity or strong resource endowments are expected to fully benefit. For example, Hunan ** (gold and antimony double wheels, driving growth), Huaxi Nonferrous Metals (excellent resource endowment).
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Disclaimer: This article is only an objective analysis of historical data and does not constitute any investment advice, and users are not responsible for any decisions made based on this article