Internal Russian documents seen by the BBC detail how Russia is working to change mining laws in West Africa, with the ambition of driving Western companies out of strategically important areas. This is part of the process of taking over the business of the Wagner mercenary group by Russia**, which was disbanded after a failed coup d'état in June 2023.
The multibillion-dollar operation is now largely managed by the Russian Expeditionary Force, which has been accused of using Novichok nerve agent on the streets of Britain in an attempt to ** Sergei Skripal, but Russia has denied the accusation.
Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said:"The Russian state is coming out of the shadow of its African policy. ”
Back in June 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin was probably the most feared and famous mercenary in the world. His Wagner Group controls billions of dollars worth of companies and projects, and his fighters are at the heart of Russia's assault on Ukraine. Then, unexpectedly, he decided to march on Moscow, ostensibly demanding the removal of the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff, but in fact threatening the Russian leadership in an unprecedented way.
Within weeks, he and much of Wagner's leadership were killed in a highly dubious air crash. At the time, there was widespread speculation about what would happen to the Wagner Group. Dr. Watling said"Shortly after Prigozhin's defection, the Kremlin convened a meeting at which it was decided that Wagner's African operations would be under direct control of the GRU, the Russian military intelligence agency".
Control will be handed over to General Andrey **Eryanov, the head of Unit 29155, a covert operation specializing in killing and destabilizing foreign **. But General Aviyanov's new business does not seem to destabilize African countries, but guarantees their future, as long as they pay for it by signing a renunciation of mining rights.
In early September, General Aviyanov, accompanied by Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, began to inspect the operations of the former Wagner in Africa. They set out from Libya to meet with the warlord General Khalifa Haftar. Their next stop was Burkina Faso, where they were greeted by 35-year-old coup leader Ibrahim Traoré.
After that, they landed in the Central African Republic, which is probably Wagner's most well-established base on the continent, and then traveled to Mali to meet with the military leaders there.
The banner in the Central African Republic reads: Russia is Wagner, we love Russia, we love Wagner In a subsequent visit, they also met with General Sullivo Modi, one of the military men who seized power in Niger last year.
Transcripts of various meetings show that General Aviyanov at Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov is assuring Wagner's partners on the continent that Prigozhin's death does not mean the end of his business deals.
The report of the meeting with Captain Traoré of Burkina Faso confirms that Russia and Burkina Faso will continue to cooperate in "the military field, including the training of Burkina Faso cadets and officers of all ranks." ”。In short, Prigozhin's death does not mean the end of military-Russian relations. In some ways, it gets deeper.
The three West African countries with close ties to Wagner – Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso – have all experienced military takeovers in recent years. After that, they announced their withdrawal from the ECOWAS regional grouping and the creation of their own "Union of Sahel States". Perhaps the country most closely associated with mercenaries is Mali, where the ongoing Islamist insurgency, coupled with multiple coups, is now a largely failed state.
Previously, security assistance had been provided in the form of a United Nations Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) mission, along with a long-standing counter-insurgency operation by the French team. But they didn't have a particularly favorable opinion of their former colonizer France, so when the Wagner Group offered to replace its security operations with Russian support, the offer was accepted.
The French were hated, not welcomed," said Edvig Solgo-Depane, an African political analyst at Amber Advisors.
France's mandate to help with the terrorist crisis in the Sahel has always been considered time-limited. Therefore, the fact that the French have stayed so long and have not found a way to end the crisis does not help", .
These flowers, in memory of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, were placed in front of the monument to Russian mercenaries in the Central African Republic, in addition to pragmatism, there is nostalgia. "In these countries, Russia is not a new ally. Russia was there in the 1970s and 1980s. ”，"People have dreams of going back to the good old days, and this is usually associated with relations with Russia. ”
But for the military ** who manages these countries, there are clear benefits to Russia's military presence. "Initially, these armies were transitional leaders. They should organize elections and bring about a return to democracy. But now Russian paramilitaries are being sent to protect the military ** and let them stay as long as they want. ”
Mali ordered the withdrawal of the French team, and Mali now relies heavily on Wagner for its internal security, a change that has had a direct impact on ordinary Malians.
"What Russia is offering is a strike force, equipped with *** with advanced capabilities and powerful firepower, and they use very traditional Soviet counter-partisan methods," Dr. Watling said. You'll see executed fighters, as well as civilians targeted for supporting fighters or having ties to fighters. ”
There are multiple claims that Wagner forces have violated some kind of rights and interests on the continent and in areas where Prigozhin's group previously dominated Ukraine and Syria. One of the most well-documented events occurred in the central Malian town of MoraAccording to the United Nations, at least 500 people are believed to have been summarily executed by the Malian army and "armed whites", whom witnesses described as speaking an "unknown language". While independent verification could not be made, international observers confirmed that the unidentified white attackers were Russian mercenaries.
Last month, a hundred Russian military experts arrived in Burkina Faso with equipment and **, and more are expected to arrive in Burkina Faso soon in exchange for substantial but brutal security assistance, and Wagner is asking for something in return. Mali, like many African countries, is rich in natural resources – from timber and ** to uranium and lithium. Some are simply valuable, while others are strategically important.
Dr. Watling said that Wagner's business is guided by a long tradition:"Russia has a standard way of operating, which is to cover operating costs through parallel business activities. In Africa, this is mainly achieved through mining concessions. ”
In each country in which Wagner reportedly operates, Wagner has gained valuable natural resources that can be used not only to cover costs, but also to generate significant revenues. According to the Blood Gold Report,Over the past two years, Russia has mined $2.5 billion (£2 billion) worth of ** from Africa, which may well have funded its war in Ukraine.
This month, Russian fighters (formerly Wagner mercenaries) took control of the Intahaka gold mine in Mali, near the border with Burkina Faso. This artisanal mine is the largest mine in northern Mali and has been disputed for years by various armed groups active in the region. But there are other things that have potential geopolitical significance.
"We are now observing Russians trying to strategically replace Western control of critical minerals and resources," Dr. Watling said.
In Mali, mining laws have recently been rewritten to give the military greater control over natural resources. In the process, an Australian lithium mine has suspended its ** trading, citing uncertainty over the implementation of the code. Dr. Watling said that while lithium and gold mines are clearly important, greater strategic dilemmas are likely to arise in the future: "In Niger, the Russians are trying to get a series of similar concessions to deprive France of the use of Niger's uranium mines. ”
Many Malians make a living from mining**, and the Russian focus is on trying to achieve what was done in Mali in Niger. If Russia succeeds in taking control of uranium mines in West Africa, Europe could once again face what is known as Russian "energy blackmail". France is more dependent on nuclear energy than any other country in the worldThe 56 reactors produce nearly two-thirds of the country's energy. About one-fifth of the uranium is imported from Niger. Previously, some people complained about the conditions, and some people thought that this former colonizer exploited Niger and other countries.
"The argument that Russia promotes is that the attitude of the West is fundamentally colonial," Dr. Watling said. This is very ironic, because Russia's approach is to isolate these countries, capture their elites and extract their natural resources, which is quite colonial. ”
In fact, the Russian "expeditionary force" is more like "Wagner 2."0", and not a radical departure from Russian foreign policy. Prigozhin has established deep political, economic and military ties on the continent – and dismantling this complex network will be difficult and difficult. In the end, it backfired.
The expeditionary force "operates in the same countries, has the same equipment, and seems to have the same end goal." Dr. Watling said the fundamental change was in "the openness with which Russia pursues its policies." Prigozhin's Wagner Group has consistently provided a degree of justification for Russia's operations and influence abroad.
After full entry into Ukraine, many in the Western security apparatus say that Russia's mask has fallen off.
"What they want to do is exacerbate our international crisis. They are trying to set fires elsewhere and amplify the crisis that already exists, making the world more insecure and, ultimately, weakening our position in the global competition we are currently facing. As a result, the impact will not be immediately apparent, but it is a serious threat over time. ”February** Dynamic Incentive Program