1
Japan is cornered!
Would you believe it if I said it was the world's "most smelling and most poisonous" financial bomb in 2024?
Why is it said to be "fragrant"?
Because his current investment performance is really hot.
From the beginning of 2023 to now, in a little more than a year, the Nikkei 225 index has soared upwards by more than 10,700 points, and it has been **41 since I wrote this text63%。
But do you think that's the end of it?
no~no~no!
With the support of global travel capital and the help of the economics of unlimited money printing,Japan's nearly 42% rise last year was just an acceleration of the decade's bull market.
In the past decade, Japan** has soared from a low of more than 6,900 points to a current high of 36,984 points.
In ten years, it has risen by a full 30,000 points, an increase of 500%! Coupled with the foil of my big A, I have properly returned to the first place in the Asian market capitalization list!
Who dares to say that he doesn't smell good??
In addition to **, the performance of the Japanese property market is also fragrant.
After nearly a decade of negative interest rates, most of Tokyo's property market has recovered its highs before the 1990 crash, and Japan seems to have seen the original rhetoric: "I can buy the whole of the United States in Tokyo alone."
Just tell me, who dares to say that this kind of rise is not fragrant?
But why do I say he's poisonous?
Because Japan is about to enter the process of raising interest rates again.
Nearly seventy percent of economic researchers agree that Japan may indeed start a "suicidal interest rate hike" in April and June of this year.
And every time the yen raises interest rates, it will inevitably cause a major financial crisis.
In August 2000, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates again to 025%, only two weeks later, the US Internet bubble burst, and the Nasdaq index jumped directly, falling for 2 years and evaporating 5 trillion US dollars.
In July 2006 and February 2007, Japan raised interest rates twice, the last one ended, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was thunderous, and the 2008 financial tsunami is still fresh in everyone's memory.
This has also become a landmark event for the hegemony of the US dollar to enter the later stage.
And the yen interest rate hike is not only the first in the economic circle.
At the end of last year, on December 25, 2023, Japanese Prime Minister Yufumi Kishida and central bank boss Kazuo Ueda attended a key event where they gave a speech at an event of Keidanren, Japan's largest economic association.
This speech is ......How so?
It is full of conflicts, but there are clear undercurrents and anger that can be felt underneath the conflict.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan also gave an outlook in his speech.
He said that slight inflation is the most obvious benefit for monetary policy, so that monetary policy has more room to deal with the economic downturn.
He said that when there is sufficient evidence that Japan has achieved a sustainable inflation rate of 2%, especially the continued trend of wage growth, the Bank of Japan will consider removing the negative interest rate policy.
So what you said he was talking about, did he want inflation or didn't want inflation? Does he want a rate hike or not?
On the one hand, he said that he wanted to increase inflation, and on the other hand, he said that he would consider removing the negative interest rate policy.
At the same time, at this event, Fumio Kishida's speech was the most interesting:Japan is in a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to exit deflation!
Japan, which has implemented a negative interest rate policy for more than 10 years and has been infinitely loose for more than 10 years, you talk to me about "deflation"?
Isn't it magical?
"easing" + "deflation", "raising interest rates" + "inflation" ......
Why? If I talk about a set of data, you may be able to understand why Japan's monetary policy is so contradictory.
Japan's total M0, or the total amount of cash flowing in the market, is about 1168 trillion yen, or about $790 billion.
M1,1082 trillion yen, which is all of Japan's current and non-current cash, is a little more than $7 trillion.
But how much U.S. debt did Japan take?
At most, I took almost 14 trillion U.S. debt.
His circulating cash is only 790 billion US dollars, but he has more than 1 trillion US bonds in his hands.
Since the signing of the Plaza Accord, Japan has been the most serious country and region in the world with a linked exchange rate system, and the United States, almost completely lost monetary sovereignty, how much yen he needs to use must be issued to the U.S. bonds.
That is to say, every time he increases the monetary base, he has to pay tribute to the United States with his own development dividends in exchange for loose liquidity.
So don't look at the yen has been falling, in fact, it has always been in a state of deflation, because not a penny of its currency is decided by itself and issued more, and it is all pawned by the United States with assets.
The base is so big, and the cost of expanding the base is too high!
This has also directly led to the fact that if Japan wants to expand liquidity, it must work the currency multiplier, which has also led to Japan's long-term negative interest rate policy, and the interbank deposit rate is -01%, after several struggles, the interest rate on residents' deposits has increased by 100 times, and it is only 02%。
So now Japan has entered a very embarrassing dead end: if it wants to regain its freedom, it has to backstab the dollar and raise interest rates. But raising interest rates means blowing itself up!
Can Japan not raise interest rates?
One word:Difficult!
As Yufumi Kishida said, "Japan is in a 'once-in-a-lifetime' opportunity to exit deflation!" ”
To put it bluntly, if Japan wants to turn over in this life, there is only one chance left to bet on the fortunes of the country.
What are you betting on?
The gamble is to tear off the mountain of dollars that weighs on you and regain monetary sovereignty.
The structure of the dollar is at its weakest moment, and a wave of closing cycles wants to blow up rabbits and woolly bears, but the result is unsuccessful.
The harvest of Ukraine and Argentina did not go well as well.
A few more mouthfuls from the EU will really force its allies into enemies.
At this time, there is only one Japan left in the world that can harvest and quickly help Lao Mei recover.
Fish on a proper plate!
Whether he wants to raise interest rates or not, the US consortium will have to force him to raise interest rates.
Because if he doesn't blow himself up, the American consortium won't have enough to eat.
Whether he wants to raise interest rates or not, the national fortunes force him to raise interest rates.
Because if he doesn't blow up the dollar deal, he will never turn over.
Japan's interest rate hike is both a backstab and a suicide!
The size of Japan's national debt is not "10 percent" of GDP, but the size of Japan's national debt is 264% of GDP.
The U.S. debt bomb is ferocious, and that is only 130% of GDP, less than half of Japan's.
Once such a large scale of Japanese debt is raised, what will the Japanese treasury pay? Japanese bond yields are bound to rise to a jaw-dropping level.
The bond market collapsed, so what about **?
Now in Japan**, Nikkei ETF has a premium of 24%, and the highest premium has reached 40%.
Nikkei's current ** is only 2,000 points away from the 1990 bubble disillusionment.
That is to say,Now buyers enter the market, at least after the impact of 44,000 in Japan, the actual cost of the hottest disk has soared to more than 51,000.
It's terrifying!
Once the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, will such a frenzied bubble be able to hold on??
Can Wall Street's bloody money allow him to hold on?
Once it can't hold on, investors who enter the market at this time must face a terrible scene of "one vote is passed on to three generations, and the debt is still there".
As long as Japan explodes, a large number of international air forces will inevitably be able to make a lot of money in Japan and the bond market, and they will also be able to make a good return for the United States.
But the U.S. will also have to face a rate hike in the yen, which is nearly 27 trillion dollars of Japan's overseas assets and 1$1 trillion U.S. Treasury market cash flow.
A large number of overseas and U.S. bond assets will be sold, and then sell dollars to buy yen, U.S. bond yields will collapse, and dollar inflation will be able to withstand this wave of extreme inflation in the case of poor global circulation?
It's hard to say! The federal debt of the United States is only 34 trillion US dollars, and Japan has covered 3With 8 trillion dollar assets and a financial bomb of nearly one-tenth of the monetary base, can the United States afford it?
So now it's a gamble!
The U.S. consortium is betting that it will not suffer from the losses of the U.S. state until the end of its fortune in Japan.
What Japan is betting on is that before the collapse of the dollar, there are enough wronged bosses who are coming to fill in their own graves as pick-up heroes, and they can't explode by gambling on themselves!
Well, now here's the problem!
With the character of the Japanese who "gamble on the fortunes of the country when they are indecided", do you guess whether they dare to "sneak attack on Pearl Harbor" again?
At the end of the article, Lao Zhuang said a few words to everyone that offended people, and now there are two completely opposite voices at home and abroad, but with the same position.
In China, I have seen a large number of voices for traffic and business, constantly showing everyone how good Japan is, how good the Japanese economy is, and how much Japan is worth investing in.
But abroad, especially in Japan, there are already quite a few Japanese economists who are advocating selling Nikkei ETFs and ** to Chinese.
I will not stand in the way of everyone's fortune, but I would like to kindly remind you that you must have a clear understanding of Japan's economic problems before making a decision.
If you want to invest in something, especially cross-border investment, you must first understand the actual situation of the place where you invest, otherwise it is tantamount to a gamble.
I can't say anything more, Lao Zhuang also has to eat, and I can't offend all people, so I have prepared a research report on the Japanese bond market.
The bond market is a transit point linking the Japanese exchange rate and **This nearly 10,000-word research report not only covers various types of the Japanese bond market, but also presents the main structural state of the Japanese bond market in three dimensions with a large amount of data.
Remember, before making a decision, you must have a minimum understanding of what you are going to do.