In terms of engaging in finance and financial warfare, the United States is becoming more and more sophisticated. On the one hand, the United States has printed a lot of money to drive economic growth and the market through economic stimulus measures on the scale of $8 trillion. And behind the "strong" economic data, there are a lot of contradictions:
Key data such as the surge in the size of the U.S. national debt and fiscal deficit, the decline in U.S. fiscal revenue and tax revenue, the increase in household debt, the decline in household income, and the U.S. employment data have been frequently revised downward after the release.
On the other hand, the United States has continued to buy back a large number of large technology companies, promoting the continuation of U.S. stocks, creating a "bullish spirit"** to confirm the "strength" of the U.S. economy. The valuations of these large technology companies are at historical highs and well above the global level, while most of the other ** performance is mediocre, and even many are**.
In addition, the United States has used a large number of Western theories about China's economic collapse, completely ignoring the fact that the actual economic growth rate of the United States is significantly lower than that of China, creating a situation of "unique scenery".
There are a number of contradictions in key U.S. economic data
Behind the "strong" economic data, key data such as the surge in the size of the US national debt and fiscal deficit, the decline in US fiscal revenue and tax revenue, the increase in household debt, the decline in income, and the US employment data have been frequently revised downward after the release.
In fiscal year 2023, the total revenue of the U.S. federal government is 4887 trillion US dollars, down 93%。During the same period, the net income of personal income tax in the United States was only 218 trillion US dollars, a decrease of 456.7 billion US dollars from the previous fiscal year, a year-on-year decrease of 17%.
The size of the U.S.'s debt and fiscal deficit has skyrocketed. At present, the size of the U.S. debt has exceeded 34 trillion US dollars, accounting for more than one-third of the world's total debt. The United States GDP accounts for about 25% of the world's GDP, which is significantly lower than the proportion of debt, which also explains to a certain extent the seriousness of the United States' debt.
U.S. economists say the U.S. fiscal deficit has entered its worst trajectory since the coronavirus, and in fiscal year 2024, the U.S. fiscal deficit will exceed $2 trillion, becoming the third-largest deficit in history, second only to the epidemic, accounting for nearly 7% of GDP, far exceeding the international warning line. The long-term persistence of the large US fiscal deficit will further exacerbate the US debt risk.
February** Dynamic Incentive Plan While the U.S. economy is "improving", the size of U.S. household debt has increased and household income has fallen. The New York Fed recently said that U.S. household debt will increase to 17 in 2023$503 trillion. In the fourth quarter of last year, household debt increased by $212 billion quarter-on-quarter, an increase of 12%, a year-on-year increase of 36%。
According to reports from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve, U.S. household incomes fell for the third consecutive year, and the national poverty rate fell from 7.0.20218% soared to 124%。This is often the case during recessions, such as the global financial crisis, the dot-com bust and the recession of the early 1990s.
In addition, in terms of the most closely watched economic data in the United States, the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, the U.S. often releases beautiful non-farm payrolls data on the release day of the data that the market is highly concerned about, showing signs of improvement in the number of U.S. jobs. After the market attention decreases, the data will be downgraded.
Since 2023, the U.S. has downgraded its data several times after the release date, which is very rare in history. The downward revisions to the U.S. economic data tend to be relatively bland compared to the previous stellar data. But at this time, the market's attention has long been reduced, and the mainstream ** in the United States is also downplaying the report.
In addition to employment data, key economic data such as U.S. home sales are often revised downwards after release. In addition to all kinds of abnormalities and contradictions in the U.S. economy, many well-known U.S. financial leaders have questioned this.
In recent years, the United States has mainly relied on a few large technology companies to promote
At present, the total market capitalization of the United States** accounts for about 481%, while the United States' GDP in 2022 accounts for only about 25% of the world's total, although many companies from overseas countries have listed in the United States, even if this factor is taken into account, the valuation of the United States** market is still significantly higher than the global average.
The U.S. and India** markets now have the highest valuations among the world's major economies, and the valuation gap between the world** and the U.S. has reached extreme levels.
Known as the "Big Seven", the big tech companies in the U.S. are the main drivers of U.S. stocks** in recent years, rising more than 109% in 2023, and the rolling price-to-earnings ratios of these big tech companies are as high as: Google parent company Alphabet (25), Tesla (42), Meta (30), Amazon (58), Microsoft (36), Apple (29) and Nvidia (91), these seven companies currently have a combined market capitalization of about $13 trillion.
Chinese internet giants Tencent, Alibaba, and JD.com have rolling P/E ratios of 11, respectively, which is greater than the valuations of similar U.S. companies.
Continued buybacks are one of the key drivers for large U.S. technology companies and U.S. stocks as a whole to continue to do so in recent years. In 2022, U.S. companies invested about 1$26 trillion. Among them, big tech companies such as Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft are among the major reposers.
Taking Apple as an example, in the third quarter of 2023, Apple repurchased a total of $56.5 billion. Since 2012, Apple has repurchased $588 billion** over the past 10 years, which is larger than the market capitalization of 492 companies in the S&P 500.
At the same time, with the exception of these big tech companies, most of the rest of the U.S. market is mediocre, and even quite a few are.
Real GDP growth in the United States is significantly lower than in China
In 2023, the estimated US GDP is 2736 trillion US dollars, real GDP growth of 25%。China's real GDP growth rate is 52%, which is significantly higher than in the United States.
At the same time, China's GDP growth rate in the past few years has also been significantly higher than that of the United States, from the second quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2023, China's GDP growth rate is 192%, and US GDP grew by 76%, in these three years, China's GDP growth rate is 25 times.
In addition, according to the predictions of many institutions such as the United Nations and OECD, China's GDP growth rate in the next few years will also be significantly higher than that of the United States. The United Nations expects real GDP growth for China and the United States to be 4.024 each7% and 14%。The OECD expects real GDP growth of 4.4 in China and in the United States, respectively7% and 15%。
The real GDP growth rate of the United States is significantly lower than that of China, but the United States has continuously made the theory of China's economic collapse through a large number of Western **, completely ignoring the fact that the actual economic growth rate of the United States is significantly lower than that of China, creating a situation of "unique scenery".
In terms of engaging in finance and financial warfare, the United States is indeed becoming more and more sophisticated. But the U.S. economy is becoming more and more debt-driven. Even a series of financial industry bigwigs, such as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, have recently admitted that the US fiscal is on an unsustainable path.
Ray Dalio, co-founder of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge, said that he is closely monitoring the dangerous fiscal situation in the United States, because he believes that the United States will have a debt crisis and the economy will slow down significantly.