With the transformation and upgrading of China's economic structure, rebar, as an important construction steel, has been attracting attention in the market. So, what will be the trend of rebar in 2024?
First of all, from the macro policy level, the manufacturing industry will become the center of gravity of economic development in 2024. This means that infrastructure construction will still maintain a certain growth rate, providing strong support for rebar demand. At the same time, the goals of the two sessions also put forward the policy declaration of "seeking progress in stability" and "establishing first and then breaking", indicating that the policy environment will remain stable and conducive to the stable development of the rebar market.
Secondly, from the perspective of supply and demand, although the year-on-year growth of crude steel consumption in 2024 is expected to slow down to 12%, but the rapid development of industries such as energy, containers and steel structures will drive high growth in crude steel demand. This means that as one of the important raw materials, the demand for rebar still has room for growth. However, it is also necessary to note that the growth rate of industries such as shipbuilding, automobile and home appliance manufacturing may slow down, which may have a certain impact on rebar demand.
Again, from the perspective of market sentiment, the rebar market on the first day after the holiday showed a tentative slightly, but the overall market sentiment is still cautious. This is mainly due to the fact that most downstream construction sites have not yet resumed work, and the market is in a state of immeasurable air growth. In addition, most steel mills are in a state of loss, and there is still a willingness to suppress raw fuels, and the cost side support is insufficient. Therefore, in the short term, the rebar market may show repeated fluctuations
Finally, we need to focus on some key factors to determine the direction of the rebar** market. First, the inventory situation, focusing on the inventory growth rate and the speed of destocking; second, whether favorable macroeconomic policies are introduced to enhance market confidence; the third is whether consumption can continue to strengthen after the holiday, providing strong support for the recovery of fundamentals; Fourth, the changes in the international first-class chemical products and other related markets, as well as the impact of geopolitical factors on the market.
To sum up, in 2024, the rebar ** market will face the impact of multiple factors such as policy dividends, supply and demand games, and market sentiment. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes to formulate a sound investment strategy. At the same time, we must also maintain a rational investment mentality, not be swayed by market sentiment, and participate in the market game steadily!
Look at the technical side of the rebar, today's opening tentatively rushed higher, and then fell back quickly, and there was no obvious long entry to the end of the market, so the support of 3800 should not be in a hurry to do **, continue to wait, once this position falls below the ** space behind is still very large, 3800 support to find the structure to do long, fall below and wait for ** short.
Personal advice, for reference only. over