[Disk analysis].
U.S. stocks hit a new high, the peripheral market ushered in a continuous breakthrough**, A-shares also appeared for 3 consecutive days, and the net inflow of northbound funds for 3 days has significantly improved. Before the holiday, most investors must have held positions for the holiday, and the reason is simple: "There must be no turmoil!" No one wants to cut their meat and leave! "As for whether it can continue after the holiday, the key is to see the trend of the peripheral market during the festival, and whether A-shares have a good launch, for the time being, A-shares are still shaky and unstable, and it is still a process of emotional repair before the holiday.
Ride a bull to see a bear spotAt present, the semiconductor industry is still at the bottom of the cycle, and the long-term trend is determined, and there is a huge demand for semiconductors such as AI and energy transition electrification, and semiconductors will be in the upward range of the cycle in 2025. Semiconductor blue-chip stocks are currently showing a low valuation mark, and companies that continue to optimize and iterate in operation are expected to achieve better market share and profitability at the next cycle high. In terms of innovation, artificial intelligence satellite communication MR will be a major industrial trend, and the industrial chain is expected to continue to reflect thematic opportunities with the progress of technological innovation.
The three major indexes collectively opened higher, the two cities rose more and fell less, and the theme plates showed strong performance in concepts such as communication equipment, fluorine chemicals, and semiconductors, while shell resources, disperse dyes, new towns and other sectors performed poorly. The concept of flying cars was active in early trading, Wanfeng Aowei 2 boards, Sunward Intelligence, Haite High-tech, etc., Roland Berger Management Consultants reported that by 2050, nearly 100,000 flying cars will be used as air car rentals, airport shuttles and intercity voyages. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, from January 1, 2024 to February 1, 2024, the high-end R125 market in Zhejiang increased from 28,000 yuan to 36,500 yuan tons, an increase of 3036%。
Due to the increase in demand for chips in various fields of the industry, global semiconductor sales this year will be 13.1 percent, reaching nearly 600 billion US dollars, a record high. According to YOLE data, from 2022 to 2028, the CAGR of the market size of silicon photonic chips will reach 44%, of which Datacom optical modules account for more than 90% of the silicon photonic chip market, which is the main application scenario. The military sector was strong in early trading, Guangqi Technology 3 boards, China Shipbuilding Emergency once touched the 20cm limit, Hailanxin, Yaguang Technology and other stocks rose more than 5%, starting in the fourth quarter of 2023, corporate orders gradually recovered, some national defense and military listed companies disclosed that they had received orders, and the prosperity of the military industry gradually rose.
The real estate sector is higher, Everbright Jiabao's daily limit, Joy City, Suning Global, etc. are rapidly rising, Shenzhen households with household registration are limited to 2 houses, and adult singles (including divorced) with household registration in Shenzhen are limited to 1 house; The requirements for the number of years of settlement and the number of years of payment of individual income tax and social insurance will be abolished. Recently, the National Energy Administration held a national renewable energy development and construction situation analysis meeting in 2024, at which it was said that in 2024, it was necessary to do a good job in the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic power generation bases and promote the completion and commissioning of base projects on schedule. The concept of carbon neutrality is stronger, concentrating technology rose nearly 20%, Blue Shield Optoelectronics, Xizi Clean Energy and other stocks rose more than 5%, the European Commission issued a statement on the 6th, suggesting that by 2040, the EU's net greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 90% on the basis of the 1990 level, which will promote the EU to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
GEM:
[**Prediction].
The Shanghai Composite Index is dominated by red plates on Thursday, and it is indeed happy for 3 consecutive days**, but whether it is a big return depends on personal ability. Financial stocks showed a trend from strong to weak, no further higher, but also related to the main funds to seek stability and not to seek a breakthrough, this position is still cautious, after all, the market is closed during the holiday, the external market is still open, A shares are still falling and not rising. Brother Niu doesn't recommend everyone to reduce their positions here, can you still reduce them? The purpose of not increasing positions is to avoid risks, and Brother Niu repeatedly mentioned that this is not the bottom, saying that he missed it? Please believe in your "beacon"! Next, pay attention to whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize above 2800 points.
The ChiNext index rose more than 3% on Thursday, and then there was a ** trend, which is also the operation of institutional funds to reduce positions before the holiday. The theme plate is still driven by the trend of the plate, and there has never been a real continuous rise plate, this position is still based on **repair**, the real war is after the holiday, and now it is actually a small fight. Next, pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 1740 points.
[Gold Rush Plan].
*Huijin Company announced that it fully recognizes the value of the current A** market allocation, and has recently expanded the scope of exchange-traded open-end index (ETF) holdings, and will continue to increase its holdings and expand the scale of its holdings, and resolutely maintain the smooth operation of the capital market. This positive change in the market may be a harbinger of more opportunities ahead, and rumours of market trends and the potential impact of expected policies make us excited about the future. The current market cost performance has come to a historical high, after the improvement of the microstructure, the market ushered in the over-fall is not difficult, but the current market does not have the clue to immediately get out of the market pattern.
Concepts such as automotive chips, MCU chips, and Huawei computing power are the main participating sectors in the theme sector, while concepts such as banking, winemaking, and coal are sectors with relatively large net outflows. Ride a bull to see a bear spotIn the future, with the iteration of new technologies such as 5G AI and the continuation of domestic substitution, the capacity utilization rate of mainland wafer foundries is expected to be restored quarter by quarter, which will lead to improvement in performance.
Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers have a lot to offer, and SEMI has recently revised up the global semiconductor front-end equipment market size in 2023, down 188% to -37%, reflecting an increase in equipment spending in Chinese mainland. According to the latest data from SEMI, global semiconductor front-end equipment sales are expected to decline by 39% to $90.6 billion, and recover to $93.2 billion in 2024, an increase of 3%.
The recovery of the traditional consumer electronics field is in sight, the inventory reduction of the semiconductor industry has achieved remarkable results, and the signs of recovery in the consumer electronics and industrial fields on the demand side are gradually emerging. Competition in the wafer foundry industry is intensifying, and ** is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2024, which is good for upstream IC design companies. Under the circumstance that overseas procurement of imported semiconductor equipment is tightening, domestic leading semiconductor equipment enterprises are in a stage of rapid development.
A number of outstanding semiconductor equipment companies have disclosed their 2023 annual performance forecasts, whether it is the continuous growth of revenue and profitability, or the rapid increase in the scale of new orders, the expansion of wafer factories in 2024 will continue, and the localization process will not change. In the medium and long term, the chip self-sufficiency rate in Chinese mainland is still low, the local wafer foundry capacity is far from meeting the demand, there is a large space for expansion, and the growth space of local semiconductor equipment manufacturers is broad.
February** Dynamic Incentive Program