Author: Shi Ying.
On February 6, the new energy vehicle research and ** system - "Jianyue EV**" completed the 2023Q4 ** data update, including: macro market, market segments at all levels, major new energy vehicle companies and important new energy vehicles. According to the latest data from the "Jianyue EV**", the total volume of China's auto market will continue to grow in the next five years. In 2024, the total number of passenger cars in China will reach 23 million; There were 10.5 million new energy passenger vehicles, of which 63% were pure electric. "Jianyue EV**" has been studying the development trend of the smart electric vehicle industry for 7 years, and has formed a theoretical system for new energy vehicle market research and a sales system for China's EV market. The theoretical system of the new energy market includes: technology trend research, market segment research, and product competitiveness research. The sales volume of China's EV market includes: macro market sales**, sales volume by market segment** (note: it is currently broken down by vehicle class, and will be launched this year**segment and application segment), sales volume of China's new energy vehicle companies**, and sales of China's important new energy vehicles**. Based on the theoretical research system of the new energy market, we carry out effective data on the Chinese EV market and iterate** at the end of each quarter. (For detailed data and logic, please log in: Jianyue EV** official website to register and consult) In the next 5 years, the passenger car market will continue to grow. We are cautious about the overall macroeconomic situation, however, we continue to raise the size of China's auto market due to supply, rather than economic recovery. When smart tram products are gradually transformed from the original travel tools to new categories such as smart spaces, smart terminals and robots, the value to users will continue to increase, not only to solve the problem of user movement, but also to allow users to rest, entertainment and even office ...... when stationaryWhen the above value increases, the desire of users to buy the tram will become stronger. In addition, compared with gasoline vehicles, the cost of commuting using electric cars has been greatly reduced, so that the cost of using smart electric cars has also been greatly reduced. This is the reason why we continue to raise the overall size of passenger cars in the Chinese market, and in the medium to long term, we even believe that we are still conservative about the total volume. In 2024, the total number of passenger cars in China will reach 23 million, with new energy sales of 10.5 million and the proportion of pure electric vehicles at 63%. In 2024, the main growth of new energy sales will be the A-class sedan, A-class SUV, B-class SUV and C-class SUV market, the above markets, except for the B-class SUV, are plug-in friendly markets, which makes the plug-in ratio increase in 2024. We believe that the proportion of passenger cars plugged in by China will reach the highest value in 2024, while the proportion of pure electric vehicles will reach the lowest value. In 2025, the proportion of pure electric vehicles will stop falling and rebound, due to: 1In 2024, the overcharging and battery swapping of the energy replenishment system will be fiercely competitive, which will make the energy replenishment experience better and better; 2.With the increase in ownership, the proportion of the A-class car market will become lower and lower, which makes the proportion of the total number of plug-in models relatively decrease; 3.There will be more and more competitive pure electric vehicles entering the market. The C-class MPV new energy market is a good market segment, but there is currently a lack of benchmark products. This is actually a relatively good incremental market, but the performance is not satisfactory. In the new energy market for C-segment SUVs, we have raised our growth expectations for the new energy market in the C-segment SUV market due to the large amount of high-quality supply entering the market in the next few years. Another significant factor is consumption upgrades and trade-ins, which will make the C-segment SUV the biggest beneficiary market. In the D-class SUV market, in 2024, the Ideal L9, Wenjie M9, Ideal M9 and some independent car companies will have D-class new energy SUVs entering the market, which will significantly promote the growth of the market size. The D-class MPV market will expand steadily, one is the two-child family dividend, and the other is the intelligent electrification dividend, which makes the value of the intelligent mobile space more and more large, and the D-class MPV is a typical representative of space-based products. In 2024, Xpeng X9 and Ideal MEGA will enter the market and start delivery, which will significantly increase the proportion of pure electric vehicles in the D-class new energy MPV market. For the content and data of market segmentation research at all levels, please log in: Jianyue EV** official website to register and view. Changan, Geely, Great Wall, Chery and other traditional leading car companies will all increase their sales of new energy vehicles in 2024, and they have become an important player in the competition stage of China's new energy vehicle market. Changan's sales volume in 2024 is expected to be 750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 104%. In terms of brand layout, Chang'an relies on AVATR in the mid-to-high-end, dark blue in the mid-end, and Chang'an brand and Chang'an Qiyuan in the low-end. The layout of the product is acceptable, and the Kaizen and the dark blue slightly coincide. Geely (excluding Zeekr) is expected to sell 850,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 111%. Geely's Galaxy, Geometry and Lynk & Co will have a relatively strong performance in China's market of less than 200,000 yuan. Based on the cost advantage, Geely's technology, design and product capabilities will continue to improve, enabling it to seize the opportunity of the gathering of oil trucks. In the 100,000-200,000 yuan market, Geely seizes the opportunity of export by replacing the gasoline vehicles of joint venture car companies through electric cars. Great Wall expects to sell 620,000 units in 2024, up 202% year-on-year. At the moment, the tank off-road SUV will become the best seller. Subsequently, Haval, WEY and ORA will become the main force of sales. Great Wall has advantages in the export and oil vehicle markets, and has advantages in the field of off-road SUVs and pickup trucks that other friends do not have. Chery Automobile's sales volume in 2024 is expected to be 450,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 298%. In 2024, Chery will lay out the four major brands of Fengyun, Xingtu, Jietu and ICAR, and there will be no suspense that more new energy models will develop rapidly, and the overall sales will continue to be the best. In 2024, Li Auto's sales in the domestic market will be 750,000, a year-on-year increase of 99%. In March 2023, we made a 3650,000 **, which is almost the same as the actual sales volume in 2023. Tesla will still only have two models on sale in the Chinese market in 2024, which will affect the company's performance. Tesla still has a huge brand appeal, but the advantage of competing with the competition is continuing to shrink. Tesla's competitors in China are growing rapidly. On the other hand, Tesla's lead in intelligent driving is becoming less significant, and even being at a disadvantage in the Chinese market, which will also dilute the company's brand competitiveness. Huawei Zhixuan is expected to sell 500,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 438%, or the company with the fastest sales growth in 2024. The release of the M7 in September 2023 was a turning point, and after a significant reduction in ** and the launch of the intelligent driving version, the sales of this model far exceeded expectations. In 2024, if the price of the M5 is reduced, it will also boost sales. More car companies include: Great Wall Motor, GAC Aion, Huawei Zhixuan, Geely Automobile (excluding ZEEKR), ZEEKR Automobile, Leapmotor, Nezha Automobile, Chery Automobile, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Tesla, NIO, Xpeng Motors, etc. The sales volume of the M9 is expected to be 90,000 in 2024. 
There is no big problem in the positioning, the appearance meets the aesthetic requirements of home and business, the interior is slightly lacking in luxury, the space is on par with competing products, the functionality is more leading, there is no problem with the extended range version in mobility, the pure electric version is slightly stretched, the brand has the endorsement of Huawei, and the M7 is in full swing, and the popularity and reputation are no problem. In terms of competitiveness, both the price difference between models and the price difference with the strongest competitors in the same class is relatively large, **competitiveness is not strong, but users at this level are less sensitive to **, so we believe that the ultra version of the extended range may be the main sales model of the M9. Theoretical positioningIt refers to the market positioning of the product that has a high probability of success in the market segment, and generally has the characteristics of large potential market scale, successful model cases in the past, and unique advantages of the car company in this field. Realistic positioningIt is based on the actual appearance, interior design and space, battery life and other factors of the product. We expect the Xpeng X9 to reach 5 sales in 202480 thousand. Xpeng X9 basically meets the needs of multi-child family users in terms of product positioning, and performs well in space, interior, and mobility, but there may be uncertainties in appearance and branding. In terms of scene satisfaction, Xpeng X9 can well meet the use scenarios of multi-child family users in the city, but there are some gaps between its power and energy replenishment efficiency and hybrid models. In terms of competitiveness, Xpeng X9 is very competitive, and a full-size MPV with a similar configuration cannot be found in the same price range. We have lowered our 2024 sales forecast for the ideal L7 from 180,000 units to 170,000 units. In 2024, the C-segment SUV market will be more competitive, and the rise in sales of the M7 and the launch of the Ideal L6 will divert the sales of the L7. In Q3 2024, we expect the top 5 models in the new energy market of C-class SUVs to be: Ideal L6, Wenjie M7, Ideal L7, Ideal L8, and Tank 500Hi4-T.