In 2023, the "volume" has almost run through the Chinese passenger car market for a whole year, from Tesla's price cut at the beginning of the year, setting off a wave of price reductions in the new energy market, and then to Dongfeng Citroen and Dongfeng Peugeot's slogan of 90,000 yuan price reduction, which completely stirred up the traditional car market, and by the end of the year, almost most car companies have participated in this wave of price reduction.
In addition to the first, China's auto market is involved in almost all aspects, intelligent driving, intelligent configuration, exports, marketing channels, etc. have joined the ranks of the volume.
Because of the volume, China's passenger car market has created a number of historical records in terms of independent market share, exports, and new energy. Among them, the sales volume of self-owned brand passenger cars in 2023 will be 145960,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 241%, and the market share increased by 6 year-on-year1 percentage point to 56%, exceeding 50% for the first time.
Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute predicts that the market share of domestic passenger car independent brands will reach 62% in 2024 and more than 70% in 2030.
In 2024, China's passenger car market will continue to "roll", Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute said that due to the price reduction of some joint venture car companies, the dilution of fixed costs by relying on the scale of electric vehicles and the price of lithium, there is still room for price reduction of automotive products, and it is expected that the first war in 2023 will continue in 2024.
The strong are always strong. In 2023, the Matthew effect in China's passenger car market will be highlighted. Among them, self-owned brand car companies and Tesla have a large growth rate. The joint venture brands, FAW-Volkswagen, BMW Brilliance, and Beijing Benz rely on the overall market of gasoline vehicle products to remain stable.
On the contrary, several second-tier traditional car companies that have failed to successfully transform into new energy are going downhill, and some new energy car companies are facing the risk of thunderstorms.
However, on the whole, independent car companies and new power brands have achieved good performance in the domestic market, foreign markets and mid-to-high-end market segments by virtue of good product technology configuration, novel appearance and pricing advantages, and their market share has maintained a rapid increase of 56%. Among them, BYD, Chery, Geely, GAC, Ideal and other sales increments contributed more.
Relatively speaking, the market share of European, Japanese, South Korean, and American systems is in a downward trend, and because of Tesla's blessing, the American system is the least declining among the factions.
From the perspective of the product structure of new energy passenger vehicles, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China in 2023 will be 8.97 million units, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 345%, of which the share of PHEV+REEV continues to expand, mainly because its products can better meet the market demand at the current stage of development with low energy consumption and high cost performance.
China's new energy passenger vehicle sales can hit a record high, thanks to many factors such as cost decline, export growth, and consumption upgrades.
In terms of cost, with the marginal decline in battery costs and intelligent software technology R&D expenses, the product configuration and pricing of new models continue to decline. For example, in the ** range of 5-100,000 yuan, new energy has Wuling Binguo and BYD Seagull, and in the ** range of 10-200,000 yuan, BYD, Changan, Chery, Volkswagen, etc. have been laid out here.
In terms of exports, China's passenger car export market has grown faster than expected. According to the data, China's passenger car export sales in 2023 will total 4.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 62%, becoming the core driving force for the growth of the domestic auto market. Among them, Chery's export volume continued to strengthen, with SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle and Tesla ranking respectively.
Second, third, and BYD's export volume has also achieved a three-fold year-on-year increase, making it the largest growth among the top 10 car companies in the export sales ranking.
The growth in luxury car sales is driven by consumption upgrades, with luxury brand sales reaching 4.39 million units in 2023, an increase of 24% compared with 20225%, of which the luxury products of new energy vehicle companies have become the largest contribution increment**. For example, the sales of high-end luxury car companies such as Li and Wenjie are growing very fast, so by 2030, the sales of luxury brands in China will double.
With the continuous deepening of new energy electrification, in order to better distinguish from traditional fuel vehicles and cover market users in different price segments, at present, the trend of domestic and foreign car companies adopting multi-brand strategies is becoming more and more obvious, such as Dongfeng, Changan, BYD, Geely, Chery and Dongfeng Honda.
There is competition, there is progress. The increasingly fierce competition among domestic car companies is also pushing up overall sales. Nowadays, niche segments are also buzzing. For example, the pure electric MPV market has been launched with the new Xpeng X9, Volvo EM90, etc., and the ideal MEGA will also be launched in March this year; The hard-core off-road SUV has new BYD Yangwang U8 tank 700, Toyota Prado, etc., and the pure electric supercar has also launched the Yangwang U9, Haobo SSR, etc.
However, there are also areas to be wary of in China's auto market under the harmony: first of all, China's passenger car production capacity is facing the risk of overcapacity. In 2023, 33 of the 77 automakers will sell less than 5,000 vehicles per month, and the average capacity utilization rate of the automotive industry will be less than 50%.
For example, the capacity utilization rate of some second-tier car companies is even less than 50%, but the capacity utilization rate of Tesla, GAC, and Ideal can still reach 100%.
The second is that inventory pressure will be relatively large in the first half of 2023. Due to the weak demand in the auto market in the first half of the year, the inventory warning index and inventory coefficient are above the warning line, and the inventory pressure in the industry is greater, but with the increase in automobile sales in the second half of the year, the inventory pressure has also eased. Gasgoo Automobile Research Institute said that compared with the inventory coefficient of previous years, the current inventory is still at a relatively reasonable level.
In 2023, how will car companies roll?
In 2023, China's passenger car market can be described as a "fairy fight". In terms of new energy, BYD, Changan, Geely and other independent traditional car companies have achieved good results, Volkswagen, GM and other foreign brands are also stepping up the transformation of new energy, among the new forces, Huawei, Ideal and other voices are very loud; In terms of exports, Chery and SAIC Passenger Vehicles have gained a lot.
Specifically, Changan and Geely have adopted a multi-brand strategy and strengthened new energy segments to expand the market. In terms of sales, Geely's new energy vehicles have sold a total of 48750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 48%. Changan Automobile's own brand sales volume was 209780,000 units, an increase of 1191%。
In addition, Changan and Geely will continue to improve the adjustment of their brand portfolios, focusing on promoting new energy, brand growth and overseas market expansion in the future, and it is expected that the sales of Changan and Geely will reach 1.78 million and 1.81 million respectively in 2024.
At the end of 2023, Huawei will launch an upgraded version of the smart car-Hongmeng Zhixing, which can cover the full-link automotive ecosystem from definition, design to after-sales, and has attracted a number of cooperative car companies, and Gasgoo is expected to sell 470,000 vehicles in 2024.
However, in this era of stock competition, some people will rise, and some people will fall. At present, only Li Auto has crossed the breakeven point, and most new brand car companies still need to continue to expand on a large scale.
In terms of exports, Chery Passenger Vehicle and SAIC Motor Passenger Vehicle will each account for % of the company's sales in the export market in 2023, becoming the core growth of the two companies' sales**.
According to the Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, Chery will focus on promoting the development of new energy products and overseas exports in 2024, and the annual sales volume is expected to reach 2.27 million units.
In terms of new energy, joint venture car companies have also begun to make efforts. Nowadays, Volkswagen, GM and BMW and other car companies have begun to actively promote the launch and large-scale development of new energy products. However, due to policy, technology and other reasons, most of the new platform new energy products of joint venture car companies have been postponed to 2025.
For example, Volkswagen's plan is to launch new products on the new PPE platform and the second-generation MEB+ platform by the end of 2024, and the domestic exclusive pure electric vehicle platform CMP in 2026. Toyota is launching a new EV platform in 2026; Honda is pushing ahead with the mass production of the all-new e:n architecture w concept in 2025. In addition, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have jointly established joint ventures in China and have announced plans to launch a pure electric platform in 2025.
In order to promote the new energy transformation, foreign-funded enterprises have begun to actively seek cooperation with independent car companies. Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute said that the localization and in-depth layout and cooperation in the post-joint venture era will become the new normal of industrial development, and local car companies, high-quality first-class merchants and technology companies will also carry out relevant ecological chain cooperation in the global market.
For example, in July last year, Volkswagen increased its capital to Xpeng Motors by about 700 million US dollars, and the two sides will jointly develop two B-class pure electric vehicle models and sell them in the Chinese market under the Volkswagen brand; SAIC Audi will rely on its electrification platform to build a new generation of electric vehicles.
Volkswagen's CARIAD has also established a joint venture with Horizon to develop highly optimized full-stack advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous driving solutions for the Chinese market, which is expected to be implemented by the end of the year.
The Stellantis Group invested approximately EUR 1.5 billion to acquire approximately 20% of the equity interest in Leapmotor. In addition, Stellantis Group and Leaprun formed a 51:49 joint venture called "Leaprun International" to focus on export business.
In order to accelerate the transformation of new energy, foreign capital has also begun to warm up. In November 2023, Mercedes-Benz (China) Investment*** and BMW Brilliance Automotive*** announced the signing of a cooperation agreement to establish a 50:50 joint venture in China to operate a supercharging network in the Chinese market.
For car companies that want to stand out in the increasingly volatile competition, Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute believes that it needs to have several elements: a strong compound team background, abundant financial support, production capacity layout and intelligent independent R&D layout development path to ensure that new players have established a relatively differentiated competitive advantage, and future breakthroughs depend on the construction of basic capacity building and core competitive elements of car manufacturing.
In 2024, the industry reshuffle will accelerate.
In 2024, the growth trend of China's passenger car market will continue.
Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute said that in 2024, China's economy is expected to be more balanced in the "dual circulation" market, and the "troika" momentum of investment, consumption and export will continue this year's pattern. It is expected that China's domestic passenger car market will remain at 1 in 2024With a growth rate of about 8%, its first-class market and new energy vehicles represented by extended range and plug-in hybrid will continue to maintain rapid growth.
However, under the trend of increasingly fierce competition, the reshuffle of the automotive industry will be accelerated. Among them, the first battle "volume" has reached a new height of industrial competition. Because the vast majority of new energy vehicles are in a state of loss, enterprises with weak hematopoietic capacity and slow transformation will be the first to go out. The focus of the next round of industrial competition is that both independent brands (traditional independent or new forces) and domestic intelligent industrial ecology have certain advantages.
New energy vehicles and overseas exports will become the core drivers of market expansion, and it is expected that the size of China's passenger car market will exceed 27.2 million units in 2025 and 30.4 million units in 2030.
Among them, new energy vehicles will accelerate the replacement of stocks, and the penetration rate of new energy will be close to 34% in 2023, with sales of 8.97 million units; In 2025, the penetration rate of new energy will exceed 49%, and the sales volume will exceed 13.2 million units; In 2030, the penetration rate of new energy will exceed 72%, and the sales volume will exceed 22 million units.
Overseas export markets will become the second growth curve for domestic automakers.
In 2023, the export market of domestic passenger cars will exceed 4.1 million units, and in 2025, the export market of domestic passenger cars is expected to exceed 5.8 million units, and Chery, SAIC, and BYD are all expected to maintain rapid growth.
However, Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute predicts that the platform period for the overseas export market of China's domestic cars will be 8 million units, and the in-depth localization of overseas markets of independent brands will be an important development strategy after 2027.
Based on the experience of Japan's automobile export development, the domestic automobile market is still in the mode of vehicle export and KD, and the overseas localization construction is in the initial exploration stage, and the scale of China's automobile localization export market will be in the expansion period in the future.
At present, Chery, SAIC, BYD and other car companies are planning to build factories overseas. Chery's CKD plant in Indonesia has been put into operation, and it also plans to build factories in Europe, Latin America and other markets. SAIC Motor already has four overseas bases in India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Pakistan, and is actively promoting the location of European production bases, which may be completed and put into operation from 2025 to 2026, and radiate the entire European market; Although Geely does not have a plant outside the country, it already has local production capacity in Europe through Volvo Cars, and it also uses the production capacity of its Malaysian Proton brand to produce models such as the Boyue and Binyue.
With the improvement of the competitiveness of self-owned brand models, domestic consumers will be more inclined to buy domestic brands and achieve overseas exports, and Gasgoo expects that the market share of domestic passenger car independent brands will reach 62% in 2024 and more than 70% in 2030.
However, in view of the fact that most car companies have come up with a magic weapon to compete for the stock market, the sales growth of the leading car companies with pricing dominance in 2024 is expected to become limited.
Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute**, considering the intensification of competition in the domestic market and the impact of the squeeze of competing products, the sales growth space of BYD and Tesla's explosive models will be challenged to a certain extent, and it is expected that BYD and Tesla sales will remain at 3.4 million and 95 respectively in 2024About 60,000 units.
Summary: On the whole, China's passenger car market in 2023 will be from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, volume **, volume configuration, volume export, etc., and the trend of this volume will continue in 2024, and the situation of "the strong will always be strong, and the weak will always be weak" will be more obvious. (Gasgoo Ma Zhenqi).
*: Gasgoo.