First tier cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, and real estate has ushered in a big bull mark

First-tier cities have relaxed purchase restrictions, and real estate has ushered in a big bull market? Teach you 3 tricks to understand the property market

First of all, let's review the starting point of this property market carnival. As we all know, the property market in first-tier cities has always been constrained by strict purchase restriction policies. Recently, however, all this has changed dramatically. First of all, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a statement, giving cities greater autonomy in real estate regulation, which means that each city can adjust its real estate policy according to its own actual situation. This is really a shot in the arm for the property market!

Subsequently, Guangzhou took the lead in liberalizing the purchase restriction policy for residential buildings of more than 120 square meters. Not to be outdone, Suzhou has completely canceled the purchase restrictions, and there is no need to review the qualifications for buying a house. Shanghai and Beijing have followed suit by easing restrictions on purchases outside the outer ring. For a time, the property market in first-tier cities was like a powder keg that had been ignited, exploding.

Some people say that the loosening of the housing purchase restriction policy marks the end of the most severe period in history. In particular, the "double purchase restriction" policy in Tongzhou, Beijing, was finally lifted after 9 years of implementation. That's a lot of emotion!

So, what is the driving force of this property market carnival? In fact, in addition to the autonomy of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's decentralization of regulatory policies, market factors are also indispensable. In particular, the big cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou obviously want to continue the stability since November last year, take the lead, and aim to stabilize the property market throughout this year.

Last month, the housing markets in Beijing and Shanghai set off a two-month boom, with both new and second-hand home transactions climbing. Especially in Beijing, the transaction volume of second-hand houses soared to more than 12,000 units; The second-hand housing market in Shanghai has also returned to activity, with more than 14,000 units sold. Entering the new year, the craze continues. The transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing remained at 1 for three consecutive monthsThere are about 20,000 sets, and 12,444 sets were traded in January. Shanghai's second-hand housing market also continued to be hot, with 1480,000 sets, maintained at a relatively high level.

Of course, in the face of such a hot property market, decision-makers in Beijing and Shanghai have also maintained a certain cautious attitude. This is in line with our long-term observation that these two cities have always been at the forefront of RMB asset values, and the market must remain stable without the slightest chaos, especially the need to be wary of foreign investment in real estate speculation. Therefore, after having the authority to regulate autonomously, they did not make drastic adjustments, but made a cautious attempt at the market.

However, while Beijing and Shanghai have been cautious in the easing of restrictions, the problem is that their decisions have not been precise enough. Because the main force of the market has been obviously biased towards second-hand housing, at the end of last year, the leaders of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also made it clear that although the total demand in the real estate market has not declined significantly, the demand structure has undergone profound changes, and second-hand housing has replaced new houses as the main force in the market. In this case, if you want to activate the market while maintaining your focus on new homes, you must not deviate from the direction, let alone be selfish.

So, in the face of the loosening of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, does it mean that the property market is going to rise sharply? How should we see through the fog to see the property market? In fact, the problem is not so tangled, we just use three tricks.

First of all, we have to look at the current real estate situation. As we all know, real estate in 2024 still has to clean up the bubble and digest inventory, and steady development is the main theme. Don't think about the ups and downs. In this context, the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities will continue to be stable, but second-tier cities will depend on the situation, while third-tier cities and below will continue to digest inventory. Why is it said that it is a second-hand house in a first-tier city? Because the second-hand housing market has become the main force, we have to stare to see if the number of listings has been declining and whether the transaction volume has remained stable.

Second, it is important to understand that there is a clear divergence in the real estate market. Don't listen to the wind and rain, and don't be fooled into saying what's wrong with China's real estate, what's wrong with Beijing and Shanghai. Those are just references, you have to pay attention to the specific situation in our local area. You have to look at the property market situation in your city, don't blindly follow the trend. After all, every city is different and cannot be generalized.

In the end, it depends on the extent of local policy support. China's real estate market is also affected by policy to some extent. Since the Ministry of Construction has delegated the authority to regulate and control, then we have to look at the policy performance of various places this year. This is very critical. We estimate that this year, various localities will definitely introduce various renovation support or subsidy housing purchase policies. For example, the birth of a baby is linked to the purchase of a house, or the talent is tied to the home purchase policy, etc. It's like eight immortals crossing the sea, each showing their magical powers. So, you have to keep a close eye on the policy and see if you can benefit from it.

In short, everyone says that the real estate era of ups and downs is over, and the era of the real estate market in 2024 will also become history. So, you have to keep your eyes open and see clearly, don't blindly follow the trend, and don't be fooled. Make decisions based on your actual situation and needs. Only in this way can you stay sober and sane in this property market carnival!