In the past two days, more and more people are paying attention to PCE and CPI data, many people just look at this indicator, but most people don't know what this means, if you don't know what it means, it will be difficult for you to use your own thinking to ** these data, that is to say, you can only follow other people's ideas, missing your own thinking logic. In this market, you don't have your own logic, and it's easy to "listen to the wind is the rain." ”
Let's first understand what PCE is, in short, PCE measures people's consumption behavior.
In fact, it's not that complicated, Xiao Wang is going to disassemble it for you in layman's terms. For example, we bought biscuits in the supermarket last month, we can buy two biscuits for one dollar, and they are quite delicious and cheap, so naturally there are more people who buy them, and there are fewer biscuits when they buy more, and the price of biscuits will rise next month, and the biscuits that can be bought for two yuan can only be bought for one dollar now. That means that the money in our hands has depreciated. I won't eat this moon biscuit anymore, I'll just keep the money in the bank and it's over. Of course, the biscuits I'm talking about here are not just biscuits, the biscuits here are just a metaphor, and this biscuit contains most of the prices in the market.
So from the example I gave, do you analyze whether the consumption was high last month or this month? Yes, consumption was high last month. That means that last month's PCE index is greater than this month's, so if we don't buy it, will the price of "cookies" be reduced again? Yes, then the money in our hands will increase in value accordingly. Therefore, if the PCE index is too high, it will cause inflation.
Everyone has a general concept of PCE in mind, let's take a look at what CPI is.
CPI: CPI index is the consumer consumption index, which reflects the price change index of products and services related to residents' lives, in general, the CPI index **, which means that the consumption level of residents increases, and the CPI index **, which means that the consumption level of residents decreases.
After reading the PCE, we look at the CPI and find that the CPI is still very well understood, and the cookie is the same as the example, there are more people who bought cookies last month, and fewer people buy them next month, which means that the CPI index last month is greater than that of the next month. The CPI index is usually used as an important indicator to judge the level of inflation. (In general, a CPI index of 3% is considered inflation, and a CPI index of 5% is considered a severe inflation). Of course, the bigger the CPI index value, the better.
After you know the meaning of these indices, think about the relationship between this PCE and **, one thing we all know is: the depreciation of the US dollar, so generally speaking, if the PCE index is high, is the consumption index high, and the consumption index is high, it means that the money in your hand is going to depreciate again, so is it the corresponding one?
Let's take a look at the current trend after we finish the basic science popularization.
Let's first look at the short-term PCE index in the past year, it is not difficult to see that this has been a downward trend since the second half of the year, and the corresponding **is**.
Let's take a look at this five-year long-term trend chart, which has been going down since January '22, and according to the trend of these two charts, the next PCE** value should be lower than last month.
Let's talk about the technical side after the news.
Let's take a brief look at the 30-minute ** trend chart, see the Bollinger band above, this** from touching the upper rail after the beginning of the middle track to move closer, from the Bollinger band after the beginning of this **fluctuation is relatively small, all the way down trend is not impossible, but look at a large ** some time ago**, this **decline should be in the next wave** to pave the way, the lower fast and slow line began to have a dead fork trend, this is the key area of the reference line drawn a low entry to do up.
Let's take a rough look at the 4-hour ** trend chart in recent days; From the upper Bollinger bands can be seen that the upper and lower rails have a narrowing trend, there will be small fluctuations in the short term, people who look carefully will find that this **trend is a bit want to touch a trend on the upper rail, and then look at the trend of the fast and slow lines below, it is possible to form a golden cross, combined with these two trends to analyze, the short-term may fluctuate in the upper Bollinger track, and this trend is likely to go up to a peak, and the long-term chance of rising is greater.
The above content is a personal opinion and is not used as a basis for investors. If you agree with my point of view. Welcome to follow, like, **If you disagree with my point of view, welcome to follow and discuss.
Finally, I hope that you can make wise investment decisions based on your investment goals and risk tolerance.