On January 17, 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics released the main economic data for 2023. Among them, the most eye-catching is the GDP data.
According to the preliminary accounting data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual GDP in 2023 will be 1260582 billion yuanCalculated as unchanged **,This is an increase over the previous yearButNominal growth rate
In 2023, our economyContinuous3 quartersNominal GDP growthBelowReal GDP growth, deflation, of which deflation in the third quarter was 143%, deflation in the fourth quarter 151%。
Generally speaking, as the economy develops, it will grow gradually, which is inflation. As a result, nominal GDP growth is generally higher than real GDP growth.
Today, economic growth is slowing down, deflation, and the market environment has fundamentally changed.
The logic of wealth in the era of high economic growth and high inflation of the past three decades will be completely inapplicable to the current economic environment.
Since then, the sickle has changed its approach, and the vast majority of the middle class will inevitably enter the poverty channel.
There are 70 million middle-class groups in China, and about 70% of their family assets are concentrated in real estate, and the remaining 30% are distributed in financial assets such as **, bank wealth management, and trusts.
When the economy enters a new recession cycle, the problems faced by the middle class, the middle class and the general population, will be more affected and lost, because their assets are highly concentrated in real estate and **.
The wealthy class has a more diversified family asset allocation and a stronger ability to resist risks.
According to data from Bloomberg Economics, every 5% of China's housing prices will wipe out 19 trillion yuan of wealth.
If the national housing price is **10%, then almost 40 trillion wealth will be wiped out, if **50%, then this figure will be as high as 190 trillion, more than our GDP in a year.
The economy is down, deflation, everyone finds that the real estate is falling, but the cash in the hand is becoming more and more valuable, even if the interest rate of the water is falling again and again, people are not willing to borrow, once the real estate loses its financial attributes, the sale of real estate is far greater than the buying. This is the reason why residents' deposits have repeatedly reached record highs, and it is still difficult to sell houses even if the price drops.
At present, the third round of housing reform has been launched, and the first affordable housing will provide cost-effective public rental housing for many low-income people, and at the same time, China will have 9.02 million newborns in 2023, which is half of the previous newborn population.
Population is the bottom logic of the real estate market. The aggregate demand for real estate in the future will inevitably shrink sharply (local differentiation is another topic and will not be discussed here).
Therefore, the shrinkage of real estate assets is inevitable, and the evaporation of household assets is inevitable due to the high concentration of household assets in the middle class of real estate.
So real estate has reached the end of the road for the middle class, so what else is still worth investing in in 2024?
It is reported that the first document in 2024 has pointed out that 26 measures in four aspects will be taken to develop the silver economy, which is the first policy document named after the "silver economy" issued by China. The latest data shows that the proportion of China's population aged 60 and above has risen to 211%, close to 300 million people, the trend of aging is further highlighted is an important background for the silver economy. At present, the scale of China's silver economy is about 7 trillion yuan, and it is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan by 2035.
The document pointed out that in recent years, everyone has mentioned great health, what is great health, is it simple health care, physical examination, health management, etc. Wrong! As everyone knows, whether it is Chinese or people around the world, especially the elderly, the real need for great health is to cure diseases and save lives! This is the value of the big health industry.
If you are interested in the big health industry, please leave a message in the comment area**.
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