Since the debut of Royole FlexPAI in 2018, folding screen mobile phones have entered daily life from people's imagination, after five years of technology precipitation, the screen material and hinge technology of folding screen mobile phones have become increasingly mature, the body is developing towards light and thin, and the first range has also tended to be stable, coupled with the system optimization customized by various manufacturers, more and more consumers have begun to accept this new thing.
According to Counterpoint data, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones in Q2 2023 will be 2.1 million units, and the annual sales volume in 2023 is expected to reach 16.7 million units, and the shipment volume is expected to reach 30 million units by the end of 2024; The agency also conducted a follow-up interview with consumers in China who use mobile phones over $400, and the data shows that 64% of respondents will consider buying a folding screen mobile phone next time they change their phones, and 20% of the respondents said that they will use the folding screen as the main machine, and Android users are more interested in folding screen phones than iOS players.
From the initial Samsung Huawei early adopter, to Xiaomi's OV glory entry; From more than 10,000 to the sinking market, from frequent quality control problems to user acceptance, although Apple has not yet entered the game, Android manufacturers who have been rolling for five years have finally made folding screen mobile phones develop to a new stage. It's just that in 2024, the manufacturers of Stud AI have deliberately slowed down the layout of folding screen mobile phones.
On February 18th, the blogger digital chatting station broke the news that "one of the TOP5 has suspended the development of the folding screen project, and two have suspended the development of the small folding project", the news instantly aroused heated discussions among netizens, and who was the first to fall behind in the outbreak stage of the folding screen mobile phone has become the answer that many people are eager to know.
In this regard, enthusiastic netizens played the elimination method in the comment area, first the blogger refuted the rumors about the normal iteration of the Xiaomi folding screen, and then oppo and vivo became the object of speculation, and even some netizens swore that "the reason for oppo's shelving is not that it sells badly, but that the cost cannot be controlled due to the high repair rate".
Coincidentally, Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at Tianfeng International, said that "OPPO and vivo have shelved their plans to launch ** in 2024", while South Korea's economy ** said that OV withdrew from the folding screen market because of a sharp decline in market share. In this regard**, although OPPO responded: "The folding series of products are advancing as planned", but the specific time node was not specified, and there was no news of the new machine warm-up, but it was the largest.
Although vivo has not come forward to explain the doubts, the vivo X Fold3 series has completed the filing, and it is light, thin and light, and it is equipped with periscope telephoto, ultrasonic fingerprint, blue ocean battery, wireless charging function, and the new product launch conference node is about to be in March, and the vertically foldable vivo X Flip is likely to be stopped. At present, the small screen folding market Honor、Xiaomi has not released corresponding products,Referring to the data of China's folding screen mobile phone market share given by IDC China,Another manufacturer that suspends the small folding project should be Xiaomi (market share is only 5.2%）。
Under the premise of continuous market sales and increasing user acceptance, I think there are several reasons why manufacturers have slowed down the research and development of folding screen mobile phones:
1. AI mobile phones have more development prospects than folding screens.
Although the folding screen mobile phone has changed the form of the mass use of the machine (left and right, up and down), enriching the daily scene experience (such as shopping while watching TV, intuitive comparison of dual shopping platforms, etc.), it has not changed the essence of the mobile phone. The real-time translation, AI frame insertion, automatic removal of passers-by, AI call minutes, auto*** and other functions brought by AI applications are far more attractive than mobile phone folding. Importantly, AI mobile phone shipments are expected to reach 60 million units in 2024, which is far larger than the potential user base of folding screen mobile phones.
2. Folding screen mobile phones have not made a qualitative leap, and they are still in the window period of pursuing both versatility and thinness.
In the past two years, with the increasing maturity of UTG glass and hinge technology, manufacturers have improved their screen creases, hinge life fit, body size and weight, and hovering function, but the product form has not changed substantially. And limited by the size of the internal space, it is difficult to stuff a large-capacity battery and a large bottom CMOS, and there are shortcomings in battery life and image experience.
You know, the manufacturing cost of folding screen screen and hinge is much higher than that of straight phone, when the market price of mobile phone and user experience are not equal, it is easy for users to make a trade-off between practicality, cost performance and new form. At this stage, instead of brainlessly pursuing thinness and involution around the first-chain hardware, it is better to explore closer to the actual needs of users and widen the experience gap between folding mobile phones and straight board machines, so as to stabilize the positioning of brand benchmark products and enhance consumer confidence in addition to product forms.
3. The user's brand awareness is relatively concentrated, and changing the concept requires multiple help from technology and data.
Previously, the "2024 China Folding Screen Mobile Phone Consumption Insight Report" released by iResearch mentioned that when it comes to folding screen mobile phones, users will first think of Huawei and Samsung brands, and nearly half of the high-end users with a future purchase budget of more than 10,000 yuan choose Huawei as the intention to change brands.
The reason why user brand awareness is so concentrated is mainly related to market shipment data and technological innovation dimensions. For example, in 2023, Huawei's folding screen mobile phone market in China will be 503%The share has an absolute advantage,And Huawei Mate X5Not only won the domestic sales TOP1, but also the only single product with more than one million shipments,For consumers, in a sense, selling well is equal to doing a good job in the quality control of the mobile phone,Everyone buys me and I will not suffer a loss。
Of course, the return to the Kirin 5G chip, HuaweiMate X5, its own hard power is also excellent, not only supports IPX8 waterproof, but also has built-in Lingxi communication function and two-way Beidou satellite message, plus the same Xuanwu tempered Kunlun glass of the Mate60 series to upgrade the toughness of the glass, you must know that many brand flagship mobile phones have not yet used Beidou satellite communication technology, and IPX8 waterproof and dustproof specifications are also ahead of other brands of folding models. This kind of fault-level technical advantage can easily affect consumers' cognitive concepts and purchase decisions, and Huawei Pocket S and P5 Pocket can win the small folding brand under the disadvantage of 4G chips29This is evidenced by the 6% market share.
So, does the slowdown of brands such as OPPO and vivo mean that the folding screen industry has entered a bottleneck period of development? I don't think so, you must know that a single manufacturer suspended development just to concentrate resources on the development of AI, close the product line to achieve better market results, other manufacturers did not relax but established a new product line for layout, such as Huawei opened the pocket series product line, and the glory vertical folding magic flip is also on the way. In summary, with the adjustment of software and hardware technology, users' acceptance of folding screen mobile phones will only get higher and higher, and in the context that Apple will not enter the folding screen market in the short term, doing a good job in the differentiated function of folding screen mobile phones has become an effective measure for domestic manufacturers to narrow the gap with Apple in the high-end market.