A-shares have reappeared in the fog in the last two trading days!
In early trading today, the A** field showed a downturn again after yesterday's killing. There is occasional resistance in the intraday, but the bullish sentiment is not high. Still, there were some breaking signals on and off the field that are worth paying attention to:
First, the liquidity that was sucked up by the prefix yesterday was pulled up to the limit, and some came back today. In early trading, there were more than 2,000 stocks, which was much better than the pattern of less than 500 stocks in the previous trading day. However, the liquidity pattern of the entire market is still tied to the "601 fleet";
Second, the yield of China's 10-year treasury bond active bond fell 07 basis points to 24,810%, compared with the valuation of Chinese bond yields, the lowest since June 2002. Some analysts believe that the trend of the bond market reflects a strong expectation of interest rate cuts;
Third, there is a turning point in the situation in Gaza. Qatar's prime minister said the Quartet reached a framework agreement on a phased truce in the Gaza Strip;
Fourth, Vice Minister Sun Weidong met with the Ukrainian ambassador to China, and the Ukrainian side said that it attaches great importance to the development of relations with China. So, is this the beginning of a turning point in the Russia-Ukraine situation?
Expectations of interest rate cuts have strengthened again.
On January 30 (Tuesday), the treasury bond **opened collective**, and the main 30-year contract rose 032%, the main 10-year contract rose 0.15%, the 5-year main contract rose 014%, the main 2-year contract rose 004%。The yield on China's 10-year active treasury bond fell 07 basis points to 24,810%, compared with the valuation of Chinese bond yields, the lowest since June 2002.
Analysts believe that judging from the trend of the bond market, it may reflect two expectations: one is the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the other is the expectation of risk aversion. Overall, the former may be a bit more ambitious. Because last week was good, but Treasury yields fell overall. The long-end interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds continues to be at 4At a high level near 15%**, the inversion of the long-term and short-end interest rate differentials between China and the United States widened slightly. Founder believes that the current process of China's economic repair is still slow, the market has partially traded interest rate cut expectations, and there are constraints on the downward breakthrough of long-term treasury bonds.
Another signal is that the structure of the a** field has also changed today. After yesterday's maximum increase in the prefix caused by the siphon of funds, the situation has eased today. In early trading today, there were more than 2,000 at one point. But then, the prefix rose again, and the number of ** fell to less than 1,300 again. From this change, it can be seen that there are two points: one is that the impact of the Chinese word prefix on the liquidity pattern is relatively large, and the other is that the entire market is still in the process of stock game. Even in this wave, the transaction volume of the two cities has not exceeded the trillion mark.
A turning point in the situation on the periphery.
In fact, judging from the external situation, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has ushered in a turning point.
According to CCTV News this morning, Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulaheman Al Thani said in an interview in Washington, D.C., on the 29th local time, that the Quartet of Qatar, Israel, the United States and Egypt has made significant progress in the negotiations in Paris, and the Quartet reached a framework agreement on a phased truce in the Gaza Strip, including the phased release of the remaining US and Israeli detainees, a gradual suspension of fighting and assistance to the Gaza Strip, the release of Palestinian detainees from Israeli prisons, etc.
Earlier in the day, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman said that the head of the US intelligence department, William Burns, and the top security forces of Israel and Egypt, had reached an agreement on a phased truce at a meeting in Paris. Mohammed confirmed that under the agreement, the detained women and children will be released first and aid will also enter the besieged Gaza Strip.
Secondly, according to *** on January 29, ** Deputy Minister Sun Weidong should meet with the Ukrainian Ambassador to China Ryabikin. Sun Weidong said that since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Uganda 32 years ago, bilateral relations have generally developed steadily. At present, the evolution of major changes unseen in a century is accelerating. China and Uganda should take a long-term view, respect each other and treat each other sincerely, so as to promote the steady and long-term development of bilateral relations. Ryabigin said that the Ukrainian side attaches great importance to the development of relations with China, has always adhered to the one-China principle, and is willing to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the Chinese side to promote the continuous development of bilateral relations. The two sides also exchanged views on issues of common concern, including the Ukraine crisis.
Where do A-shares go from here?
Judging from the current environment, it may be mainly a matter of confidence. The lack of faith comes from three sources:
The first is the disturbance of offshore capital, the recent rhythm is that "real foreign capital" continues to sell, Hong Kong stocks rise and fall, and gradually become suppressed. For example, today's market is like this: Hong Kong stocks continue to weaken, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell to 3%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 22%。Consumption, technology, and real estate sectors led the decline, with MINISO falling more than 13%, and Longfor Group and New Oriental falling nearly 7%.
Second, the characteristics of the stock game are too obvious. Investors are generally counting on bailout funds, and they are also gambling on this part of the incremental funds. In this case, individual plates are very easy to form siphons, such as yesterday's situation: a few ** up, most of them down. And form a strangulation of the newly established market confidence.
Third, economic activity is still a place that needs and can be exerted. At present, there are some changes in people's income expectations, and many investors are recovering their money for two purposes: one is because the net household expenditure needs to be recouped, and the other is that the hedge needs to recoup the investment. Therefore, what needs to be done now may be to raise people's income expectations and stimulate the overall vitality of society.
Ping An** believes that the overall opportunities in the current equity market still outweigh the risks. On January 24, the China Securities Regulatory Commission proposed to protect the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors in many aspects. With the implementation of the new round of RRR cuts, the monetary policy cycle gap between China and the United States tends to converge, and China's monetary policy operation autonomy has increased, which is conducive to broadening the monetary policy space and focusing on stabilizing the market and confidence. The market is expected to get out of the short-term troubles with policy confidence. In terms of structure, the first is the dividend strategy that directly benefits the policy (coal, bank, petroleum and petrochemical), and the second is the central state-owned enterprise companies that also benefit from the central state-owned enterprises that emphasize investor returns; Third, it is good for the first white horse with stable performance and standardized information disclosure.