Zhuochuang Information analyst Li Huan).
Introduction] Returning to the market after the Spring Festival in 2024, Zhuochuang Information conducted a survey on the resumption of work in the upstream and downstream industries of the plate industry chain.
*: Long-process steel mills are in normal production, and short-process steel mills are in production one after another.
According to the resumption of work of plate production enterprises investigated by Zhuochuang Information, from the perspective of long-process enterprises, the operating level of hot-rolled coils is relatively stable, the steel mills maintain normal load production, and the post-holiday operating load rate is 9065%, down 059 percentage points, mainly due to the maintenance of related supporting equipment of some hot-rolled steel mills after the holiday, which affected the output of hot-rolled steel mills and drove the decline in the operating load rate; In terms of medium and heavy plates, the operating load rate is 8143%, down 5 from before the holiday71 percentage points, mainly due to the existence of a small number of short-process steel rolling enterprises in East China, all of which were closed during the Spring Festival, driving the decline in the market operating level; From the perspective of cold-rolled coils, the hot-rolled coil supporting cold-rolled coil rolling lines according to Zhuochuang Information mostly maintain the normal operating level, and the operating rate has not changed compared with before the holiday, while the short-process rolling enterprises in Boxing and other regions stopped production during the Spring Festival, but resumed production after the Spring Festival, and there are certain changes in the start-up; From the perspective of galvanizing enterprises, in the last week before the holiday, most small galvanizing enterprises have begun to take a holiday, resulting in a low level of pre-holiday operating rate, only 3464. After the Spring Festival, galvanizing enterprises resumed production one after another, driving the operating rate at 6514, an increase of 305 percentage points.
Inventory: Social inventory accumulates to varying degrees, and the pressure on hot coil inventory is the greatest.
From the perspective of social inventory level, the product inventory of all links in the plate industry chain has accumulated to a certain extent, but the inventory accumulation degree is from deep to shallow in the order of hot-rolled coil, medium and heavy plate, cold-rolled coil and galvanized coil. From the perspective of hot-rolled coils, the social inventory level after the holiday reached 40780,000 tons, an increase of more than 3 percent before the holiday, the accumulation of social inventory of hot-rolled coils is more obvious, the main reason is that the hot-rolled steel mills maintain a high-yield mode, and the normal delivery during the Spring Festival drives the inventory of the first merchants, and some businesses actively store in winter, increasing the accumulation rate of inventory to a certain extent. The social inventory of medium and heavy plates, cold-rolled coils, galvanized sheets and other products changed relatively slowly compared with before the holiday, which was related to the shutdown of production enterprises before the holiday.
Demand: The terminal has not fully resumed work, and the demand recovery is slow.
On the demand side, Zhuochuang Information found that the market transaction in the week after the Spring Festival increased compared with the last week before the holiday, mainly because the middlemen were light before the holiday, and did not replenish the warehouse in advance.
The main reason for the sluggish demand comes from the late resumption of work at the terminal, and the terminal has not fully resumed work before the Lantern FestivalSmall machinery enterprises have not yet resumed work due to fewer orders;The commencement of construction sites and infrastructure projects may continue to be delayed.
*: The market opens downward, **It will take time to start.
*In terms of opening after the Spring Festival, all products of the plate showed a downward trend, and the average price continued to decline compared with before the holiday. **The main reasons are concentrated on the supply and demand side as well as the macro side. Through the above analysis, it can be seen that the market has returned to a normal level, the demand has not been released for a long time, and it is difficult for the company to ship, which has put pressure on the marketOn the macro front, the expectation of a post-holiday interest rate hike in the United States has fermented again, driving market pessimismOn the cost side, raw materials coke and iron ore have different ranges of decline, and the loosening of cost support has formed a downward traction.
Market outlook**: After the Lunar Lantern Festival, there may be a wave of centralized resumption of work at the terminal, and the demand side is expected to be good;In terms of cost, the spot ** gradually fell to the ** merchant procurement cost line, and the willingness of merchants to continue to fall weakenedJudging from the start-up situation of plate production enterprises surveyed by Zhuochuang Information, there are fewer overhauls and production reductions, and high ** or continue to be maintained. To sum up the above points, the plate products may gradually come to an end, and the golden three is coming, or drive the first gradual doxxing. However, considering the high market and the slow recovery of demand, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, so it is expected that the plate will fall first and then rise in February and March.