2023 has been a sweet and bitter year for single-player game developers.
Speaking of sweetness, we can harvest "The Daughter of the Volcano" and "Finished" from time to time! I'm surrounded by beautiful women! and other unexpected surprises; The reason why I say it is bitter is that many works that have high expectations from players and the industry have not met expectations. In addition to products, we should not ignore the fact that changes in the PC market environment and user behavior habits are also having a subtle and far-reaching impact on buyout games.
At the end of the year, at the time of the release of a large number of new PC stand-alone games, in order to better face 2024, we might as well briefly sort out the buyout games in 2023 and see what changes have taken place in this market segment in the past year.
In 2024, how much potential is there in the buyout market?
If you want to select a few keywords for the 2023 buyout game, it is difficult for market saturation, head effect, and user ** to fall off the list.
There is no doubt that buyout games are continuing to be saturated with competition. According to SteamDB statistics, a total of 14,532 new games will be launched on the Steam platform in 2023 (an average of nearly 40 new games will be released every day), setting a new record for the platform.
The domestic market space is also cramped. According to the statistics of the annual sales list of Guoyou, there will be more than 1,100 domestic games on the Steam platform in 2023, and the total number will increase by nearly 6% compared with 2022, but the actual sales scale will decline by 1% year-on-year. In other words, in the context of the accelerated expansion of the first-end of the buyout game market, the actual purchase situation of Chinese players is not optimistic.
It is worth being vigilant that there is also the increasingly obvious phenomenon of the head of the buyout game. According to the revenue structure of the domestic buyout game market in 2023 according to the statistics of the annual sales list of national games, the revenue scale of long-term sales + head new games in previous years accounts for 91% of the total7%, while the revenue of other new games accounts for only 83% (i.e. 1.)700 million yuan) - you can compare the number of domestic new games on sale in 2023 mentioned above, and then feel the feeling1700 million in sales.
Overseas analyst Tom Wejiman also talked about the squeezing effect of head products on the ** when talking about the game market in 2024: "Nowadays, a few games have a monopoly on game time, 60% of players' game time is occupied by 19 games, and 75% of game time is occupied by the first 33 games. ”
What's worse is that PC gamers' willingness to spend seems to be declining as well. Steam data shows that the average first-year conversion rate for Steam wishlists has dropped significantly over the past year, reaching 192%, and by the beginning of 2024, it has fallen to 164%。
Aside from the above-mentioned market factors, we should also note that today's user communities and social networks (including Steam, Bilibili, Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Xiaohebox, etc.) are having an unprecedented and profound impact on game reviews. Once the game has a slight stir, it is very easy to attract bad reviews from players, and even ferment into an event that affects the reputation and sales of the product.
An indie game developer once said that after going deep into Steam, he increasingly believes that the "mood" of Steam users is not friendly, but for a small developer like him, there is no choice but to land on Steam.
At the same time, there is a tendency for buyout games to fall into the "Tacitus trap" (not limited to buyout games, of course). With the departure of products such as "Mirror2" and "Neon Sequence" for various reasons, "Taiwu Picture Scroll" and "Eight Desolations of Ghost Valley" have turned positive, and players' fingers have gradually spread from anger towards some game EA versions to suspicion and distrust of domestic games.
Neon Sequences had sold quite well.
The hallmark of a mature team is to take root in the category you are most familiar with
In a market with an obvious Matthew effect, it is the most stable practice for each manufacturer to explore and iterate based on the mature gameplay that the team is familiar with. As a result, we will see that many of the works that sold well last year were made by mature teams.
For example, the developer of the campus construction simulation game "School Park Conception" Pasya Technology has successively launched two simulation RPGs of "Portia Time" and "Time of Sandstone Town", which is the "number one player" of domestic independent games on the simulation business track, so this time it is of course more proficient in driving the construction simulation, and the themes and painting styles it chooses are still taking a global path.
Crespirit, the developer of the Metroidvania-like game "TEVI", has precipitated a wealth of side-scrolling combat experience as early as "Rabi-Ribi" and "Final Command", and has a unique understanding of the two-dimensional cute image, so it is reasonable to make "TEVI" this time.
91 Act, the developer of the IP-derived side-scrolling action game "Wings: Chaos Effect", has a lot of precipitation in the field of IP content production and ACT action - they are not only the first batch of manufacturers in China to make two-dimensional IP, but also the producer "factory director" is an industry veteran who has participated in the development of action games such as "Kung Fu Kid" and "Dead or Alive".
Although the overall system framework and interactive gameplay are in the same vein as its previous work "Fireworks", the new work "Three Dogs" by veteran solo producer Moonlight Cockroach has made certain differences in art style, narrative expression and story theme.
At the same time, fledgling gameplay such as vampire likes is still going strong. Take the top-down roguelike "Magic Craft" released by station B, the gameplay is not new, but the magical art style and spell pigeon construction are remarkable.
It is not difficult to see that the core players who stabilize the basic market and serve their own brands are becoming the priority choice of many manufacturers at present, and this will inevitably accelerate the evolution of some categories.
A time-tested classic gameplay that will never go out of style
In addition to continuing to carry forward the categories they are good at, some domestic developers have also set their sights on classic gameplay that was once all the rage on the PC side, and through refurbishment and repackaging, to show the charm of such gameplay to contemporary players.
For example, the gameplay of the popular indie game "Daughter of the Volcano" developed by the Egg Keeper Studio was born from the classic development game "Beautiful Girl Dream Factory" in the 90s of the last century, and on the basis of it, the art quality is more sophisticated (more than 330 super exquisite CGs), the content details are fuller (200,000 words of plot, dozens of endings), and the game theme is more distinct (responding to the emotions of "empty nest netizens" raising cyber daughters), and finally achieved excellent results of sales exceeding one million.
It is worth mentioning that the Japanese gainax company, the copyright owner of the original "Beautiful Girl Dream Works", also authorized the Korean developer D-Zard to develop a new series of works - this probably also reflects from the side that the future of the game is promising.
The nautical management adventure game "Sail Era" published by Station B is probably the same idea. In terms of theme and gameplay, the work somewhat borrows elements from the "Age of Discovery", so after it was launched, it naturally attracted a group of players who came to the "Spirit of Discovery", and this group of loyal fans of the sailing like is naturally the basic plate of "Age of Sails".
It is foreseeable that after the initial success of works such as "Daughter of the Volcano" and "Age of Sails", artist development games such as "Star Volunteer", which were popular in the 90s of the last century, may also be revived (Daewoo seems to have begun to do so, and its BL voice actor development game called "Pure Love Voice on Air" is in development).
Developers who are eager to break through and swim against the tide
However, on the other side of the industry's general pursuit of stability, there are still many teams that have the courage to "know that there are tigers in the mountains and prefer to go to the tiger mountains".
As we all know, Candle Dragon is known for its ancient RPG, with a deep accumulation of turn-based and action RPGs, but in 2023, they will come up with a Metroidvania-like game "Heart Abyss Dreamland" that is completely different from the previous gameplay. And judging from the theme of the Western-style fantasy style of the work, Candle Dragon obviously hopes to get rid of the path dependence on IPs such as Chinese-style Xianxia and even "Ancient Sword" and "Divine Dance Fantasy".
For another example, Heluo Studio, in the case of multiple openings and never set foot in the card category, made "Outer Martial Arts" with the deep integration of card rogue-lite and martial arts plots. Although the volume of the work belongs to the small level, the quality of the courage to try is commendable.
Finished! Belle! In the environment where there were almost no large-scale domestic live-action interactive love video games on Steam, another way has achieved the most explosive phenomenal buyout game in 2023, while fully responding to the emotional needs of male users, it has also led a trend of live-action love video works - its greatest significance is that it once again confirms: how to provide users with emotional value is the supreme topic of all entertainment products in this era.
Equally bold is the Yimei Studio. This young indie game team has attracted a lot of attention from players with its text **g "Sea Sand Storm", but its new work "Dream Lantern" has chosen a category that has never been tried in the past and is destined to be extremely difficult and laborious: text adventure + ARPG. What's even more worrying is that knowing that the pricing of domestic buyout games cannot easily cross the 100 yuan gap, "Dream Lantern" has set ** at a somewhat staggering number - 108.
Although the current sales performance of "Dream Lanterns" is hardly ideal, a sentence from the distribution team of Yimei Studio is still fresh in my memory: "We want to prove that as long as the domestic solo game is the same, it can sell to three digits." And their words also make me believe that as long as we have an enterprising heart that is determined to innovate, Yimei Studio will not be too far away from the next successful work.
The subject matter is full of flowers, but there is still a long way to go before it can be truly innovative
Compared with the toss gameplay, the buyout game rooted in the Steam platform has more "maneuverable space" at the theme level, and developers can make a fuss about the story plot and game setting. However, we can't be fat in one go, and theme innovation has to be done step by step - not to mention, the so-called theme innovation is a creative work that relies on genius inspiration. All things considered, the old theme is still the best choice for manufacturers.
As one of the town cabin stones of domestic independent games, the theme of martial arts and Xianxia in 2023 will be significantly differentiated. On the one hand, the failure of veteran game producer Ye Mingzhang's "Tyrannical Sword Record" not only makes people feel that this era is changing too fast, and the older generation of gamers are falling behind one after another, but also makes people wonder whether martial arts fantasy is out of date.
The number of Steam reviews of "Sword and Clouds" has only exceeded 800 so far.
And the "violent death" of "Jianghu Eleven" made developers worried: under the skin of martial arts, how should the gameplay and combat system be packaged?
Jianghu Eleven" only has a 36% praise rate, and most of them are praised.
But on the one hand, "Yijian Fengyun Duel", which has a delicate pixel art style and a royal martial arts plot, and "The Legend of the Heroes" after turning positive, let us see that the martial arts theme still exists. What's more, both of them have proved with their achievements that martial arts Xianxia games do not need to blindly follow the times and blindly pursue 3D, if they can capture the essence of the genre, they can also conquer contemporary players.
In addition to traditional themes, we should not ignore the efforts made by developers in niche and differentiated themes.
is different from the slightly "sci-fi" plot of "Finished! Belle! "Flying Over Room 13" focuses on a highly controversial realistic theme - juvenile Internet addiction, and uses the game to respond to the outside world's incomprehension and doubts about the player's spiritual world.
The Courtyard of Yogsothos is based on the text**G+ simulation business gameplay, at first glance, it is a dark two-dimensional Cthulhu theme that drops the san value, and after a careful tasting, I found that it is a hotel business with beautiful girls of various races such as dragons and deaths.
Animal Maze sets the game stage in Animal City, where players take on the role of a fox reporter who goes deep into prison to uncover the truth of the conspiracy. The game focuses on a tough guy detective style that has nothing to do with the traditional theme, so much so that you may wonder if this is really a domestic indie game?
Penglai Flying Fish Studio's collection and development game "Silent Cricket" chooses a very novel and interesting theme. By restoring the three steps of "catching, raising, and fighting" of fighting crickets into a game, "Silent Cricket" is full of spirit and is called "Chinese's own Pokémon" by players. In addition, the background of the 90s also makes the art style and nostalgia of the work endless.
The Babel Hitchhiker's Guide takes the butterfly effect and space-time manipulation as the core, the story runs through the two worlds of life and death, the plot is imaginative, the game tone is relaxed and witty, and the gameplay is also a rare "imitation" type of domestic games.
Overall, although the current domestic stand-alone games are not as avant-garde and sharp as they are at the subject level, at least we have been able to see that some of the relatively rare product styles in China in the past have quietly surfaced.
Wearing the stars and the moon, the buyout game is "on the way".
Looking back at 2023, we are saddened by the dismal end of star products with halos such as "Border" and "Sword and Cloud Record"; We are also skeptical about the good results but the collapse of the reputation of "The Beast Party": in this unpredictable market, where is the minefield of buyout games? How can manufacturers avoid red lines that must not be touched?
They invariably reflect a real and brutal truth: whether in China or overseas, the buyout system (selling copies) is still a business model where the risks are not proportional to the benefits; Development time, investment costs, and developer enthusiasm don't always pay off – on the contrary, too high investment costs and too long development cycles can be easily decoupled from users.
Not long ago, the news of the dissolution of the developer of "Cangyi: Chaos Effect" (according to the statistics of the annual sales list of the national game, the sales volume of the game is 200,000 and the sales of 15 million) 91act has cast a shadow on the future of the buyout game.
Fortunately, no matter how bumpy the road ahead is, the rushers are always on the road. "Black Myth: Wukong", "Beacon Fire and Cooking Smoke", "The Legend of the Ancient Dragons", "Bomu Paom" ......From the 3A painstakingly polished by the mature production team, to the stunning appearance of the unknown "small workshop" with the products that Mimi has been doing for several years, from the veteran team that has been deeply involved in stand-alone games for several years, to the mobile game manufacturer's first trial of PC console buyout products, after the storm in 2023, 2024 will be full of vitality again.
Regardless of the final performance of the above works, Gyro firmly believes that as long as developers have a sincere heart that is obsessed with high-quality games, domestic buyout games will eventually have a day after the rain.