The micro-cap stock style, which was still hotly discussed in the market at the end of last year, has suddenly become a mute this year. As of January 31, the CNI 2000 and CSI 2000 indices were **1982% and 2097%。The 1000 index has been a track for quantitative managers to compete for excess in the past three years, and the index return has been -18 this year72 %。At the same time, as a blue-chip, value, low valuation style gathering of the "special valuation" track is shining, according to the index data compiled by Oriental Wealth Choice, as of January 31, the "special valuation" index has been **6 this year91%。Why is the "China Special Valuation" so strong at the beginning of this year? Is there a seesaw relationship between it and microcap stocks? How can investors adjust their portfolios?
Figure 1: Earnings diverged significantly between the mid-cap and small-cap indices in January.
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice, deadline until January 31, 2024.
"Medium and special assessment".Strong reasons
In the past, investors may have simply understood "China Special Valuation" as a central enterprise or a state-owned enterprise, but it is actually a relatively new concept. In November 2022, Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, first mentioned "exploring the establishment of a valuation system with Chinese characteristics" at the annual meeting of the Beijing Financial Street Forum, and then the concept became one of the most sought-after themes in the A** field.
We believe that there are two major reasons for the strength of the "special valuation" this year. First of all, there are similarities between the background of this year and last year: the similarity lies in the lack of a clear growth line in the market in the first quarter of last year, except for international hot spots such as AIGC and computing power, and this year's A** field is even more so; The difference is that in January last year, the market was experiencing the spring restlessness after the full opening of the epidemic**, the index and the industry as a whole were fast**, and the northbound funds were used as the main incremental funds for more than ten consecutive trading days**, while since this year, only the banking and coal sectors were obvious**, and the strong computer, electronics, and media throughout last year fell to double digits in January, and other sectors retreated to varying degrees. In the environment where the main line is unclear and the overall volatility of the broad-based index is large, the low valuation and high dividend of the "medium and special valuation" constituent stocks are considered to have a high margin of safety and are a better expedient measure for the market at present. Second, in the past, the assessment indicators of the heads of central enterprises focused on economic benefits and the preservation and appreciation rate of state-owned capital, and on January 24, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said that it would incorporate market value management into the performance appraisal of the heads of central enterprises, and guide the heads of central enterprises to pay more attention to the market performance of listed companies, and timely return investors through market-oriented means to convey confidence. To sum up,We see that in this round of "medium and special valuation"**, banks, coal, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemical companies with obvious characteristics of low valuation and high dividends have strong performance.
Figure 2: The state-owned enterprise sector with low valuations and high dividends outperformed other sectors in January.
Data**: Oriental Wealth Choice, deadline until January 31, 2024.
The reason for the weakness of micro-cap stocks at the beginning of the year
Investors may have a hunch that micro-cap stocks, which had been strong all year last year, have suddenly underperformed the heavyweights this year, but they would never have expected it to come so quickly. As of January 30, the Wind Micro Cap Index was 1569%, the Mi Basket Small Cap Concept Index retraced 1585%, if the cost of frequent rebalancing is taken into account, the index decline will be further magnified. The ** of micro-cap stocks has caused a collective drawdown of quantitative long products, especially CSI 1000 index increase products, even if a few managers obtain excess returns of more than 6% in a single month, they cannot reverse the double-digit beta of the monthly drawdown.
The sharp increase in micro-caps is a direct result of valuation adjustments rather than deteriorating earnings of listed companies, and we attribute this adjustment to swaps in conditions of insufficient incremental capital. After all, the price-earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index has increased by 39% in the year at that time, and the CSI 300 ETF and the four major state-owned banks have continuously received large capital injections last year, which coincides with the logic of low valuation and high dividends favored by some funds. And combined with the phenomenon that the excess growth rate of quantitative long strategy products after the strengthening of the "medium and special valuation" sector at the end of the first quarter of last year was low in the whole yearThere is a certain seesaw relationship between the "medium valuation" and the style of micro-cap stocks.
How investors adjust their portfolios
If we assume that the "China Special Valuation" will continue to strengthen for a period of time, investors who hold ** longs, especially quantitative long strategies, should pay attention to whether the managers in the positions have drifted for a long time on the style of small tickets, and whether the beta is only benchmarked against small-cap indices such as CSI 1000 and CNI 2000, and the number of shares held is high. If the quantity of such products is high,Consideration can be given to increasing the number of high-frequency Shanghai and Shenzhen00 index increase strategy products。Second, if the market continues to be sluggish, we believe that the upper echelons may continue to maintain relatively loose monetary policy to stimulate the market, and funds may trade to force Treasury rates downInvestors can consider moderately increasing their allocation to treasury bonds** trading products, or allocating medium and long-term bond products to obtain absolute returns from duration amplification
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