This year's market focuses on a surprise and exercise of the mind.
Micro-cap stocks have been leading the way in 23 years, but I didn't expect to start following the trend this year. The Wind Micro Cap Index fell 4 points today, and has accumulated **12 this year08%, more than **.
The recent trend is even more exciting than a roller coaster.
However, those two big black pillars made me breathe a sigh of relief when I didn't buy micro-cap stocks.
Still, the fears came true
Since the micro-cap stock became popular, there has been endless discussion about it, and the ** of micro-cap stocks is also a smash hit, and the scale has doubled.
There are also many people around me who have bought micro-cap stocks**, but in line with the awe of "the big heat will die", in fact, they have been worrying about the follow-up trend of micro-cap stocks, and now the hanging heart is finally dead.
In fact, there was a big adjustment in micro-cap stocks last week, and the direct cause should be the knocking in of the snowball.
With the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, snowball products have been knocked in, and brokerages have sold IC and IM stock indexes, resulting in a deep discount for the stock index.
After the deep discount, hedging products began to unwind positions, resulting in selling pressure on micro-cap stocks. Institutional investors with a low risk appetite began to redeem as soon as they perceived the risk**.
The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 snowballs added knock-in sizes on January 22, estimated to be 513200 million and 288800 million yuan, accounting for 259% and 332%, and the Wind micro-cap index directly dived on the same day.
After this major adjustment, the net ratio of micro disk ** has dropped from the 99% quantile in the past three years to below 20%, which can be regarded as the mean reversion of excess returns.
Internet celebrity Shenji also began to waver?
When it comes to the strategy of micro-cap stocks, it is natural to mention the "Shenji" Jin Yuan Shun An Yuanqi.
In 2022, the city of ** with 35The 60% annual yield became famous, and then it has been on the road to a new high, and the upward trend of net value is equivalent to its road to the gods.
As of the end of 23 years, Jin Yuan Shun An Yuanqi rose by as much as 25 in the case of the general dismal performance of the equity class in 23 years45%, and the maximum drawdown is only -827%。
Jin Yuanshun high-quality selection of the same door, although it only began to change its strategy in the third quarter of 22, but in 23 years, it is better than Jin Yuanshun An Yuanqi in terms of performance and drawdown control, and the scale has also doubled in the fourth quarter.
The collective decline of micro-cap stocks, they naturally did not escape, but the maximum drawdown of Jin Yuan Shun'an is still controlled within 10%, and the decline is also a little smaller.
I looked at the 4 quarterly reports of the two, and the ** change was not much, basically remaining at about 75%, but there was a difference in heavy stocks.
Jin Yuan Shun An Yuanqi began to appear in the top ten heavy stocks.
Previously, Jin Yuan Shun An Yuanqi has actually been emphasizing that it is not a quantitative **, but a subjective investment that has been driven by macro and rotated by large types of assets.
Judging from the trend of **, this is really not the routine of ** company, Miao Weibin is indeed a real human flesh quantification, and he adjusted his position in advance, which is really a god.
The microdisk in the hand is to go or stay
A wave of big adjustments, it is estimated that many people who hold the microdisk style** are confused, and they don't know what to do when they look at the ** in their hands.
Let's take a look at the reasons why micro-cap stocks have outperformed in recent years.
First of all, it must be inseparable from the background of the macro environment.
Micro-cap stocks have a low correlation with the economic cycle, will show certain counter-cyclical investment attributes, and will perform relatively strongly in the context of weak economic recovery.
Secondly, its excess returns are mainly due to high-frequency trading, buying low and selling high.
Wind Micro Cap Index is rebalanced according to the daily position, and the 400 ** with the smallest market value in the A** market are selected as constituent stocks, which is equivalent to constantly selling high and buying low every day.
Compared with the constituent stocks of other major broad-based indexes, the Wind Micro-Cap Index is also significantly higher, with an annual unilateral ratio of nearly 6 times.
The daily turnover of the Wind Micro Cap Index is actually not large, except for 2015-2016, the total daily turnover is between 10 billion and 20 billion for most of the time.
Therefore, if the market capital is in the stock game, and the emerging investment hotspot happens to be a sector with low coverage of micro-cap stocks, the turnover will shrink rapidly, and the illiquidity risk of micro-cap stocks is high, and the range of stock price changes will also be significantly magnified.
Previously, the market lacked a main line, and micro-caps had a money-making effect, so funds flocked to micro-cap stocks, and micro-cap stocks also skyrocketed.
Nowadays, the funds that protect the disk are basically bought CSI 300 ETFs, and the "China Special Valuation" has been popular recently, and it is still continuing today, and the funds are more willing to flow to the ** stocks with higher certainty.
In addition, micro-cap stocks are naturally more volatile, and once the style is switched, there may be large fluctuations. If you are heavy on the micro market strategy, it is recommended that you can consider reducing your position appropriately.