In 2023, the shipyard delivered a total of 350 new container ships with a total capacity of 2.2 million TEU, breaking the previous record of 1.7 million TEUs delivered in 2015.
However, this delivery record will soon be broken in 2024!
According to One Shipping: Recently, Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said that 478 container ships with a capacity of 3.1 million TEUs are planned to be delivered in 2024, 41% higher than the record in 2023
In addition, the number of vessels** is expected to increase in 2024, but the fleet could still grow by nearly 2.8 million TEUs, with the global fleet size surpassing 30 million TEUs for the first time in history by the end of 2024.
It is expected that by 2024, there will be 83 ships exceeding 150,000 TEU vessel deliveries, which will add 1.4 million TEUs to capacity in the sector and double its capacity in just four years.
Chinese shipyards have benefited the most from record-high orders, delivering nearly 55% of vessel capacity during 2023 and 2024, cementing China's position as a premier location for building container ships. The South Korean shipyard is expected to deliver 38% of the vessel's capacity.
Once all vessels are delivered, the capacity of the container fleet will increase by 10%, extrapolating to 1. per day this year, according to BIMCO31 new ships delivered.
While BIMCO** will see a 10% increase in container fleet capacity this year, the shipping organization has warned that containers** are expected to slow down sharply, with demand for vessel capacity increasing by 3-4% in 2024
At the same time, the average speed of container ships has increased from 143 knots to 13 in 20239 knots and may decline further in 2024.
The supply-demand imbalance will widen in 2024. However, a prolonged disruption in the Red Sea, forcing ships to sail through the Cape of Good Hope, could tighten the balance between supply and demand. At the same time, another 3 million TEU is planned for the 2025-2026 period, and unless there is a significant increase in the number of vessels, it seems that the market imbalance will reappear once the situation in the Red Sea is resolved. ”
According to HSBC data, more than 80% of Asian** and European** vessels bypassed South Africa, pushing the spot** of the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) to its highest level since the pandemic.
Data on the Xeneta platform shows that spot market rates will continue to climb and reach $8,000 per hour from Asia to the Mediterranean and Northern Europe in less than a week.
Peter Sand, principal analyst at Xeneta, warned: "Shippers should be prepared that low-priced cargo could be treated unfairly. ”
According to an analysis by Maritime Strategy International Consulting (MSI) in the UK, the increased cost of diversion via the Cape of Good Hope does not explain the cost of freight rates. Daniel Richards, a container expert at MSI, believes this is a combination of panic, or to secure capacity in the coming weeks as ships delay their return to Asia.
"It's probably fear, not facts, that are driving the container market," Richards said. ”
If the crisis is not resolved in the coming weeks, higher spot freight rates could lead to higher contract rates as Ban** negotiates annual contracts with retailers. This could help prevent profits in the sector from falling too much from what was expected before the disruption," a new shipping report from HSBC said.