If you want to know more exciting content, come and pay attention to my steel's recent thermal coal market has been running steadily. At present, the large state-owned mines in the production area basically maintain normal production, the number of private coal mines is increasing the number of shutdowns and holidays, and the coal market is gradually shrinking; Affected by snowfall and freezing, some automobile transportation roads are restricted, and the coal mines in production are mainly shipped in long-term agreements, and the current downstream procurement demand is weak, most coal plants and first-class merchants have basically stopped purchasing, and the market has gradually entered a state of closure, and coal prices are running smoothly as a whole.
On the demand side, this week is the last working week before the Spring Festival, although the rain and snow brought by this round of cold wave has an unprecedented range of impact, and the duration is also long, and the residential electricity load has been supported to a certain extent, but the Spring Festival is approaching, most enterprises have taken a holiday in advance, industrial electricity consumption has gradually weakened, and the daily consumption of power plants has become a foregone conclusion, and the follow-up inventory will be passively pushed upward. In terms of non-electricity, the coal market is running steadily, with few market participants, and the procurement of non-electric end users such as cement and chemical industry is mainly carried out on demand, and the demand side as a whole is difficult to form a strong support for the spot market. This article will interpret the sample data of terminal power plants last week, and briefly analyze the recent market and the subsequent factors affecting demand.
According to MySteel statistics, as of February 2, the total coal storage in the sample area of 257 power plants across the country was 4,81480,000 tons, an increase of 123 from the previous month50,000 tons, daily consumption 25930,000 tons, an increase of 020,000 tons, available days 186 days, an increase of 05 days.
Data**: Ganglian data.
According to the data, last week, the strongest rain, snow and freezing weather this winter began to affect China, the terminal daily consumption was differentiated, the inland daily consumption rebounded, the daily consumption of the rest of the region fell slightly, and the downstream inventory rose. The arrival of cold air has delayed the seasonal decline in daily consumption, and the demand for civil electricity is expected to increase, but with the approach of the Spring Festival, the industrial electricity load will accelerate the decline, basically hedging the release of civilian demand; In addition, the inventory level of power plants is acceptable, basically meeting the demand of the Spring Festival, most terminals are not in a hurry to purchase before the holiday, and still maintain a small amount of rigid demand.
The following is a survey of some regional terminal power plants:
Power plants in Central China A: The average daily raw coal consumption decreased month-on-month, and the average daily raw coal volume into the plant increased month-on-month.
Power plants in East China B: Daily consumption fluctuated slightly, and inventories increased month-on-month.
South China Regional Power Plant C: The unit in the plant was shut down and the inventory increased.
Power plants in Northwest China D: load maintenance, slight fluctuations in the range of consumption.
In terms of weather, from February 6 to 15, the rain, snow and freezing weather process continued in southern China, with a cumulative precipitation of 10 30 mm in Jiangnan, South China and eastern Guizhou, Chongqing, central Sichuan, and southeastern China, including 40 60 mm in central and southern Jiangnan and northern South China. The cumulative precipitation in northern Xinjiang, southeastern Northwest China, eastern Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other places was 2 7 mm, and 10 25 mm in northern Xinjiang. The precipitation in most of the above areas is 5 8 times more than that of the same period in normal years, and more than 1 times more locally. In the next 10 days, the temperature in most parts of the central and eastern regions will gradually rise, and the average temperature in the Huaihe River Basin and most of the areas south of it will be lower than that of the same period in normal years1 2. The average temperature in Xinjiang, Hexi, Gansu, central and northern North China, and Northeast China was 1 3 higher than that in the same period of normal years, and 4 5 higher in eastern Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and eastern Jilin. The average temperature in the rest of the region is close to the average for the same period of the year.
To sum up, recently, under the influence of cold wave weather, most of the country has continued to have low temperatures, obvious dampness and coldness, and the demand for civil electricity has certain support; However, most of the downstream enterprises have been on holiday, and the industrial electricity load has dropped significantly, so the impact of the cold wave on the daily consumption of power plants is not obvious. The weather forecast shows that on Chinese New Year's Eve, the precipitation in the south is expected to end completely, when most of China will welcome the arrival of the Year of the Dragon with clear weather, and the pre-holiday terminal procurement rhythm is not expected to improve much.
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