A colleague of mine sold his only owner-occupied house in Beijing this year and decided that he planned to rent a house in the future. This property is the result of two generations of their family's efforts, plus a loan from the bank. Of course, after **, the capital naturally accumulates! Actually, I admire him very much, the sign that a stranger has a firm foothold in the imperial capital, and he dares to sell a set of self-owned houses, what a determination!
A person who does not understand economics is unlikely to see the future situation clearly, but an economic expert who is full of wealth may not be able to accurately judge the future trend. Because the world is impermanent, there are some changes, even if you pour the power of the country, you can't fully resist it!
The Russian-Ukrainian war, the global new crown infection, these sudden shock waves are incomparable! The losses brought are not measurable by how many W's, and the impact on the economy is undoubted. More importantly, in the process of stop loss, the trend direction of future planning needs to be adjusted, because the epidemic cycle is long, which is an act that hurts the roots!
I never listen to the comments of economic experts to guide future investments. The logic is very simple, ordinary people, as long as they are not super big, have three melons and two dates in their hands, even if they follow the right form, what about it? If the base is too small, how much return can be generated?
For example, banks release water, monetary policy is loose, even if the proportion is enlargedCompared to an ant, it only squirms an inch forward, and it doesn't hurt! But if all the three melons and two dates in your hand are entered, the return is not big, but the risk increases!
A few decades ago, with the rise of real estate, I knew that the price of the house was going to rise. Looking at the mainstream model of Westernist real estate, real estate finance has become the mainstream at that time, and other countries will inevitably follow suit. But so what? Thirty years later, I have a million, isn't it the same concept as thirty years ago when I had one or twenty thousand? Knowing that the price is going to increase, it doesn't affect me that I can't afford it!
In addition, whether they were born in the magic capital or the imperial capital, those who worked hard for a property in those years, no matter how many years have passed, even if the market value has increased a hundred times, for them, as long as they don't make a move, it's just a virtual economy!
The real demolition households may sell one or two sets, which is a natural advantage in geographical resources. I know a boss who lives in Shanghai. said that he only has one child, and the child needs to inherit four properties in the future, one for grandfather, one for grandma, one for dad and one for mom. He said that there are many such cases in Shanghai. However, it may not be easy to sell, because there are many more poor people than rich people!
I don't believe in anyone's professional analysis, and in fact I have never seen any such professional analysis. Under the strong impact of the global epidemic, survival and life are meeting challenges. There are also big names who are talking about it, and the mainstream of future economic recovery is still real estate, which must be promoted!
I think this is a fallacy, for the sake of one's own interests, there is no morality to speak of. Look at such a set of data,How much is our housing market worth? In 2020, it will be 63 trillion US dollars! What is this concept, although our population base is larger, but our extra population, not everyone owns urban real estate!
The fundamental logic of real estate development is the balance between supply and demand! If the balance is broken, it is a bubble! Our housing bubble is conservatively estimated to be more than 30. I don't understand economics, but I understand simple addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Just compare the statistics with the population base, and the problem is immediate!
It can be seen that professionals who are still calling for real estate to be the mainstream of economic promotion are either caught in it, or capital is doing tricks. As we all know, Country M has dealt with several housing bubble crises. And we don't have it yetThere may not yet be another industry carrier that can withstand the shock wave of this processing.
The hegemonic dollar of country M, his inflation, can buy low and sell high, through the world to help him digest; They can also plan wars, resell equipment, and make a fortune. Do you really think that he is supporting Ukraine for free? Zelensky doesn't know how many IOUs he has written for country M, and he will not be able to do it in his lifetime!
We originally hoped that we could do some regulation and hedging on the economy. And ours, after decades, is still fighting a 3,000-point defense war, and it does not have the carrying capacity! Some people may say that banks release water, dilute the wealth of ordinary people, and if they do not invest in real estate, they will depreciate. On the face of it, the view is correct. But,The premise is that the property must be invested at a real price, if the value is only fictitious and too high, is it still a price investment? If it collapses, won't it be a return to the pre-liberation period and the principal will be damaged!
Whether the property can be sold depends on the population, which is the most fundamental logic. The aging population, the sudden decline in the new population, and the real estate going forward, what will you do? Of course, in addition to the necessities of life, the common people do not have much surplus, but they just want to squeeze out the surplus food in your pocket and return to the sea.
After three years of the epidemic, I believe many people have understood, ordinary people, what to talk about long-term fixed asset investment? Even if it is invested, it is only a virtual number that is increasing, ostensibly hedging against currency depreciation. However, when you need money, can you sell it in time? As far as we are concerned, the more flexible we are, the more effective it will be, and we should have this bit of cash in case of emergency!
I don't think it's wrong for my friend to dispose of the only property in the imperial capital, because he has been through something. In the past few years of the epidemic, when you need money, you have hit walls everywhere. It is not safe for him to feel that his autonomy is not entirely in his hands!