On Wednesday, the Nikkei 225 index extended Tuesday's rally, rising more than 2% during the day to 3445427 points, the first time since March 1990 to break through 34,000 points, from the record peak of 38,915 set in 19899 o'clock is just one step away.
As inflation continues to rise, Warren Buffett leads a large-scale influx of foreign capital into the "Japanese Special Valuation", and the regulator initiates corporate governance reforms, Japanese stocks, which were once regarded as the "world's least popular assets", have repeatedly broken historical records in the past year.
At present, the focus of the market is how much space there is for Japanese stocks in the future, and whether it is worth continuing to buy.
By comparing the history of Japanese stocks with that of Europe and the United States, it can be found thatValuations of Japanese stocks are still modest. Looking ahead to 2024,According to the analysis, due to the good profits of Japanese companies, if wages are sharply **** after the spring labor negotiations, the Nikkei 225 index is expected to **13%, a record high.
For Japanese investors who experienced the bursting of the bubble more than 30 years ago, Japanese stocks today are really rare.
On December 29, 1989, the Nikkei 225 index closed at 38915At 87 points, a record high, the world was amazed by the miracle of the Japanese financial market.
However, no one expected that this highlight moment would be so short.
From the late 80s to the early 90s, the Bank of Japan continued to raise interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating, and at the same time, Japan** introduced a "total loan amount regulation" to control real estate credit, in an attempt to extinguish people's enthusiasm for real estate investment.
The tough change in the official attitude became the fuse for the bursting of the **bubble.
From 1990, the decline in Japanese stocks lasted for 20 years, until March 2009, after the outbreak of the global financial crisisThe Nikkei has fallen to 7054 points.
It was not until Shinzo became prime minister for the second time that Japan shot the "three arrows of economics" that the Japanese economy ushered in an improvement and drove Japanese stocks to continue. In the fifteen years since 2009, the Nikkei has increased nearly fivefold.
In the most recent year, Japanese stocks have risen particularly sharply, with the Nikkei rising 30%, the biggest annual gain since 2013.
Behind the sharp recovery of Japanese stocks in the past year, on the one hand, the concept of "** economics" is still in force, inflation continues to rise, and corporate profits continue to improve;On the other hand, under the crazy delivery of the "stock god" Buffett, the heat wave of "Japanese special valuation" has swept the world, and a large number of foreign capital has poured into the Japanese market.
Corporate earnings seem to have emerged from the "lost thirty years" that followed the bubble. For the fiscal year ending March 2024, net profit of Japan-listed companies is expected to rise by 13%, marking a record high for the third consecutive year.
Warren Buffett said as early as 2020 that he bought Japan's five largest trading companies**It's because they're "ridiculously cheap".His bet has since tripled to more than $17 billion.
With the endorsement of the stock god, there is a massive influx of foreign investors, and by 2023, the net value of foreign capital in Japan will exceed 3 trillion yen. To date, foreign ownership of Japan** has increased from 4% in 1990 to 30%.
Even today, three years later, Japanese stocks still don't look expensive in terms of price-to-earnings ratios. Compared with more than 40 times at the end of March 1990, the price-to-earnings ratio of the main board of the Tokyo Stock Exchange is only about 15 times.
In terms of expected earnings per share, Japanese stocks have nearly tripled compared to the end of 2012, compared to US stocks up 21 times, 1 for European stocks5 times.
In addition, the reform of the governance of listed companies by the Japanese regulators is also increasing the confidence of the outside world in Japanese stocks.
At the end of March last year, the Tokyo ** Stock Exchange called on listed companies whose stock prices are below book value to take steps to increase their stock prices in order to improve corporate governance and improve capital efficiency.
Zuhair Khan, who manages Japan** at Switzerland's UBP Investments, said he had dismissed the exchange's call for reform as mere superficial, but he now saw structural reforms. Represented by Hitachi and Sony, Japanese listed companies are trying to enhance profitability by shifting to high-yield assets.
Looking ahead to 2024, Masashi Akutsu, chief Japan** strategist at BofA, believes that Japan** will soar 13% this year, surpassing the peak reached 35 years ago and hitting a record high.
That is to say,Follow Tuesday 33763At 18 points, the Nikkei 225 index is expected to reach 38152 by the end of the year4 points.
Masahiro Ichikawa, strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, also saidIf Japanese companies announce significant wage increases during their annual collective labor talks this spring and release optimistic earnings for the next fiscal year, starting in April, the Nikkei 225 could end the year** to 36,000 points.
Akutsu believes that Japanese stocks are undervalued, and that the resilience of the Japanese economy and improving corporate profits should push Japan to **continue**.
StillThe Bank of Japan is on the verge of ending its negative interest rate policy in 2024The interest rate gap between Japan and the United States is expected to narrow, and "this will be a year to test the strength of companies," said Kazuhiro Toyoda, an analyst at Schroders Investment Management.
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